GaleHawkins
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Is the Leaf really a car before its time?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:32 pm

Moved to its own subject since it was off the OP subject at
https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic ... &t=30913
GaleHawkins wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:17 am
Nubo wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:39 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzb51NSB0bM
Thanks for the video link from 6 years ago that called the Leaf the car before its time. Does this mean the timing was off for the Leaf to become what Tesla has become?

Yes if Nissan had released the Leaf of late 2010 with today's 40 kWh battery with the 150 mile range it could have been a hit even without a public charging network in place with people making do with home charging options of that day. That would have added $5K-$10K in the selling price I expect which would have been a show stopper in the Nissan accounting department perhaps. Maybe the pricing low to gain market share that did not work out in hindsight for Nissan and was what prevented the Leaf from mega success.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwint ... 4b431a747
Nissan Leaf Sales Falter As New Competitors Offer Better Technology, Looks

What would have happened in 2011 if the Leaf had a 150 mile driving range and a $10K higher selling price and the battery life was as good as Tesla introduced in their 2013 Model S line up? What would have happened if Nissan had of sold the Leaf at a greater net loss and or higher price from the get go more like like Tesla did opening in the $100K selling price range? Nissan is at risk of losing the billions they have put into the Leaf development and marketing. It was 3 billion back in 2014 per Nissan. Having been driving Nissan vehicles since 1973 their current state in the car industry hurts me to witness.

It seems Nissan would now like to price EV's more like Tesla's prices with their first 300 range EV but is that too little too late so save Nissan's past EV efforts. So will the Leaf truly go down in EV history as being a car before its time?

https://www.motor1.com/news/69473 /the ... ts-time/
The 1948 Tucker Sedan: a Car Ahead of its Time

If the Ariya ever makes it into production it could be competitive in a technical sense. However if the Nissan dealerships are in serious financial trouble now would they even look at a new high end EV when the Leaf did not work out well for them. Tesla has proven it is easier to drop prices from a sky high level to lower levels. I think the Nissan brand is stuck in the $15K - $25K range in middle America. A $45K Super Leaf is not of interest to me personally unless Tesla pulls a disappearing act soon.

https://electrek.co/2019/12/04/nissan ... ike-leaf/
Nissan shifts EV strategy to premium vehicles, not ‘discount cars’ like Leaf

"Automotive News Europe reported that the Ariya was going to be badged as an Infiniti before the luxury brand was discontinued in Europe.

Under the former CEO Carlos Ghosn, the Leaf’s price was discounted to stimulate sales, which was criticized by the new leadership.

Hiroto Saikawa, who served as Nissan’s chief executive for less than three years, stepped down in September. He said that price cuts and big sales targets tarnished the Leaf’s image. “What really destroyed Leaf’s product value was when we vastly cut the lease price for Leaf in the US. Since then, Leaf’s image is that of a discount car,” Mr. Saikawa said."

If Nissan states that it destroyed the Leaf's product value who is going to refute that fact? This fact is why I do not see the Ariya ever seeing the light of day especially if Nissan does not have a battery technology equal to top line EV makers of today and in the $100 per kWh range.
I will review to see if I got the copy/paste correctly

LeftieBiker
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Re: Is the Leaf really a car before its time?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:40 pm

The Leaf wasn't "A car before (ahead of) it's time." It was "A car released before it was ready." Nissan knew that there were possible issues with the passively cooled battery, but it was put into production anyway. They did test it extensively, but the degradation apparently required both time and heat to appear quickly enough to show up in road tests in cooler climates. I suspect that the 'Canary pack' may also have had quality issues similar to the later 30kwh 'Lettuce pack' that resulted in some packs that held up better than others (although not in high temps).
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GaleHawkins
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Re: Is the Leaf really a car before its time?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:23 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:40 pm
The Leaf wasn't "A car before (ahead of) it's time." It was "A car released before it was ready." Nissan knew that there were possible issues with the passively cooled battery, but it was put into production anyway. They did test it extensively, but the degradation apparently required both time and heat to appear quickly enough to show up in road tests in cooler climates. I suspect that the 'Canary pack' may also have had quality issues similar to the later 30kwh 'Lettuce pack' that resulted in some packs that held up better than others (although not in high temps).
Carlos 20 years ago dropping the margins and making it up on volume increase was a good plan but the competition grew.

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Nubo
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Re: Is the Leaf really a car before its time?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:57 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:40 pm
The Leaf wasn't "A car before (ahead of) it's time." It was "A car released before it was ready." Nissan knew that there were possible issues with the passively cooled battery, but it was put into production anyway. They did test it extensively, but the degradation apparently required both time and heat to appear quickly enough to show up in road tests in cooler climates....
Except I seem to recall they specifically used an Arizona testing facility. It didn't take long for Phoenix drivers to notice the issue. Certainly someone monitoring parameters closely in a test facility would have spotted issues even sooner. Never did quite make sense. I'd love to know where the disconnect happened in the chain between testing and executive decisions.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

LeftieBiker
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Re: Is the Leaf really a car before its time?

Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:48 pm

I think that they weighted the tests in Japan and elsewhere in Europe much higher than the AZ tests, which they probably considered an "extreme environment." It would have been nice if they had been more forceful in discouraging people in that kind of climate from getting a Leaf.
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powersurge
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Re: Is the Leaf really a car before its time?

Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:57 am

The Leaf was not "before it's time".

It was the first real EV. When it came out, what was its competition? Nothing.... Except the Mitsubishi IMIEV...

It became a big seller all over the world. So coulda, woulda, shoula of the past is worthless..

The problem now is with the Nissan company.
1) They don't want to replace batteries on existing cars.
2) They have NO stock of the cars at dealers.
3) The cars that they do have are $45,000 SLs, which I refuse to pay.
4) They do not want to discount the cars from sticker price....

Why should I bother doing all the work to find a Leaf at a dealer, and then they do not discount the car? It is like going to a dance club, where there are no women. And the 2 women that are there charge you money to dance with them... I will look elsewhere.

I am going to buy a new EV in the next 6 months, but it will not be a Leaf. The other good cars available are better, and actually cheaper because they are highly discounted.

I will keep my old Leaf but they will not get me again when I buy my next one..

LeftieBiker
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Re: Is the Leaf really a car before its time?

Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:30 am

Think of it this way: you walk into a crowded club and there are only two women there. You invite one of them to spend the evening with you - Dutch Treat. You, BTW, are not a movie star in this scenario. What happens?
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powersurge
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Re: Is the Leaf really a car before its time?

Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:14 am

LeftieBiker wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:30 am
Think of it this way: you walk into a club and there are only two women there. You invite one of them to spend the evening with you - Dutch Treat. You, BTW, are not a movie star in this scenario. What happens?
Exactly... I have not found Nissan dealers to be looking to "dance". They have said to me that they can "order" one for me (at close to sticker) or they have one Leaf in the back that they are not in a rush to sell... Even a 40KWH SV Leaf goes for 39,000. This is on Long Island Ny.

GaleHawkins
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Re: Is the Leaf really a car before its time?

Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:35 am

powersurge wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:57 am
The Leaf was not "before it's time".

It was the first real EV. When it came out, what was its competition? Nothing.... Except the Mitsubishi IMIEV...

It became a big seller all over the world. So coulda, woulda, shoula of the past is worthless..

The problem now is with the Nissan company.
1) They don't want to replace batteries on existing cars.
2) They have NO stock of the cars at dealers.
3) The cars that they do have are $45,000 SLs, which I refuse to pay.
4) They do not want to discount the cars from sticker price....

Why should I bother doing all the work to find a Leaf at a dealer, and then they do not discount the car? It is like going to a dance club, where there are no women. And the 2 women that are there charge you money to dance with them... I will look elsewhere.

I am going to buy a new EV in the next 6 months, but it will not be a Leaf. The other good cars available are better, and actually cheaper because they are highly discounted.

I will keep my old Leaf but they will not get me again when I buy my next one..
You last sentence that I feel is correct but tends to negates your first sentence of this post in my view.

https://www.wardsauto.com/news-analysi ... has-plan

For those that have no been shopping or driving Nissan for the past 50 years may find this 20 year old Nissan news article helpful in understanding today's issues that may lead to a 80% downsizing to avoid bankruptcy in the near term if they can not find Chinese companies with deep pockets to buy them first.

Carlos Ghosn is the reason of your point 4. above. Where he was right or wrong to cheapen the Nissan image with discounts he did train a generation of Nissan buyers to Expect and Demand discounts from sticker prices per your post. Dealers that are losing money due to Nissan induced failures in most cases seem to see the Leaf as the mistake that is part of their pain today.

To be fair to Nissan when they were designing and developing the Leaf they did not have Elon Musk holding the flashlight to see how to do EV's from start to finish.

If Nissan had of put the Lizard battery of the 2015 era into the 2011+ with battery failure issues most would still be useful today with positive EV customers buying new Nissan EV's.

Nissan leadership in power today was never committed to Leaf project I expect from the get go.

The Leaf will go down in history like the Tucker automobile as a car before its time that managed to sell half of a million Leafs due to the market for EV's being so strong. Nissan is currently pulling out of Europe today and who knows where next, maybe Canada?

Other than the battery dependability issue I see the Leaf as strong as Tesla dependability wise. A 50 mile range in a cold winter storm just did not cut the mustard for most owners. Before our 2016 Leaf with 24K miles 30 kWh battery was replace with the 40 kWh battery our interstate driving range was 45 miles going at posted speeds.

In hide sight it is easy to see why Nissan failed but when we look at battery costs in the era of Leaf development and the goal to sell discounted EV's when there was ZERO competition in the Zero Emissions car market doomed the Leaf to be a car before its time as far as success goes. Nissan came on the market with only one competitor who was selling a 200 mile range EV for $100,000.00 with no competition price wise until 2018 when the $35K Tesla was announced. I mean would is going to take a high end Leaf over a low end Tesla?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Roadster_(2008)

Tesla will drop prices by $10K per unit WHEN the market place demands that they do so just because they can. Nissan was discounting their brand years before the Leaf came to the market. The Leaf is still selling below true cost as is Tesla but Tesla may have their first profitable year in 2020 but time will tell. The EV business is not for the faint of heart with shallow pockets.

danrjones
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Re: Is the Leaf really a car before its time?

Thu Feb 20, 2020 9:05 am

LeftieBiker wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:30 am
Think of it this way: you walk into a club and there are only two women there. You invite one of them to spend the evening with you - Dutch Treat. You, BTW, are not a movie star in this scenario. What happens?
Can't you read this two ways? That either there is only two women in the club and some undisclosed amount of men, or that there literally are only two women and yourself in the club? in the latter case I'd say you should walk out with with no less than BOTH. :D
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