2012 Nov Plugin Sales Discussion : Volt 1,519 ; Leaf 1,539

Starting the thread for November.




Leaf : 1,539
Volt : 1,519
PIP : 1,766
I : 42
FFE : 172
Model S : 400*
Fisker :
Energi : 1,259

CA Only

Fit EV : 26
Rav 4 EV : 32

Interesting quote from Nov.

http://green.autoblog.com/2012/11/29/nissan-leafs-november-december-sales-likely-to-match-year-earl/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

For November and December, "we'll be much closer to parity compared to calendar year 2011," Reuter said.

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update : looking at last nov/dec Leaf sales, not all that interesting. 672 & 954.

I am expecting another great sales month and predict about 1500 Leafs in the wild.

Ian B

I keep thinking inventory should be getting tight for 2012 LEAF and continue to dog sales.

See the video from the LA auto show below:

http://www.latimes.com/videogallery/73509093/Business/L-A-Auto-Show-Brian-Carolin-Nissan-North-America#gl-73517797" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"Between 1,500 and 1600" Leaf sales in November.

Also:

2013 LEAFs will be "in showrooms" ~2/1/13.

Price and range of 2013 LEAF?

There will be "good news" announced at the Detroit Auto show, in mid-January.

http://www.naias.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

New Plug-Ins with HOV access and announcement of Spark EV are going to take a bite out of the LEAF CA sales. If not this month then very soon. Nothing against the LEAF in that regard but more competition means it spreads out the really interested buyers of *EV tech cars. People on the fence about battery degradation/forced_replacement_cost or daily_miles_avg may lean toward a PHEV.

Volt predictions seem to be 2000-2500 but not sales records. "HOV" access in NY areas could be a benefiting factor.

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/...faction?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|FRONTPAGE|p

In October, the Volt had another best-ever month, selling 2,961 vehicles. In the first 10 months of the year, General Motors Co. has sold 19,309 Volts, up 286 percent.

But November sales are expected to be down from October — around 2,000 — in the face of a tighter supply of vehicles.

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scottf200 said:

New Plug-Ins with HOV access and announcement of Spark EV are going to take a bite out of the LEAF CA sales.

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Nothing against Spark, but it will have the same effect on Leaf sales as did Mitsu i. I've not heard too many say Leaf is too big ...

I expect Energi, Accord PHEV etc to have impact on Volt more than on Leaf.

Overall, ofcource, my hope is the new vehicles will expand the market rather than fight for the same people.

evnow said:

scottf200 said:

New Plug-Ins with HOV access and announcement of Spark EV are going to take a bite out of the LEAF CA sales.

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Nothing against Spark, but it will have the same effect on Leaf sales as did Mitsu i. I've not heard too many say Leaf is too big ...

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I was thinking along the lines of some wanting the "TMS" and 400-lbft / 8 sec 0-60 performance. Plus it did not take much to make a better looking vehicle than the Mitsu i.

new vehicles will expact the market rather than fight for the same people.

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+10

="scottf200"New Plug-Ins with HOV access and announcement of Spark EV are going to take a bite out of the LEAF CA sales. If not this month then very soon...

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Definitely not this month, not very soon, and probably never.

Total Spark EV production each year (Whenever Spark EV production actually begins) will only be a fraction of LEAF production each month. And it will probably only be a few months after "2014" Sparks begin to trickle out, that the 2014 Infiniti BEV and 2014 LEAF, both with further advances in design, come to the market.

edatoakrun

...Mark Reuss, the president of General Motors' North American operations, expects to sell only a few thousand electric Sparks -- mostly in California, because that’s “where the interest and infrastructure is.”

“The range has to grow and the cost of the battery has to come down” for electric vehicles to catch on with consumers, Reuss said.

GM has yet to announce the range for the Spark EV, but the automaker said it would be among the longest ranges of the battery electric vehicles on the market...

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http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/l" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... 0652.story


I wonder if he means "few thousand" for the 2014 MY, or for the entire production run?

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Xpost from:

Chevrolet to Produce Spark EV All-Electric Vehicle

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6198&start=260" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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My expectation is that Spark will be made in numbers similar to Fit EV & Rav 4EV (and 500e ?). I expect them to be mostly owned by previous or current Leaf owners ...

scottf200 said:

Volt predictions seem to be 2000-2500 but not sales records. "HOV" access in NY areas could be a benefiting factor.

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Just curious, what are you referring to exactly? I have not heard anything about an expansion of HOV privileges here in NY. As it stands, the Leaf, Prius, newer Volts, etc can only access the HOV lane on the Long Island Expressway. All other HOV lanes in the state are off limits.

I'm at the dealer getting the new firmware. They sold some 60 in November - a record for them.

evnow said:

I'm at the dealer getting the new firmware. They sold some 60 in November - a record for them.

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Sweet. Let's hope there are many dealers that did just as well.

NYLEAF said:

scottf200 said:

Volt predictions seem to be 2000-2500 but not sales records. "HOV" access in NY areas could be a benefiting factor.

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Just curious, what are you referring to exactly? I have not heard anything about an expansion of HOV privileges here in NY. As it stands, the Leaf, Prius, newer Volts, etc can only access the HOV lane on the Long Island Expressway. All other HOV lanes in the state are off limits.

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Sorry. I didn't realize it was so restrictive. My impression from some sales people there was that it was a key in driving sales and that it has helped them sell out their entire stock!!!

https://www.dot.ny.gov/programs/clean-pass/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

UPDATE (October 15, 2012):
The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation has recently added the following vehicle models to the eligibility list:
2013 Chevrolet Volt with the Low Emissions Package identified by E, F, G, or H in the 5th position of the VIN
...use the 40-mile Long Island Expressway High Occupancy Vehicle (LIE/HOV) lanes...
...Vehicles bearing Clean Pass stickers can travel the 40 continuous miles of HOV lanes in both the eastbound and westbound directions along the length of the Long Island Expressway from Medford in the Town of Brookhaven, Suffolk County, to the Queens border...

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1,519
Via gm-volt posts.


33% increase over last November but low compared to the last few months.

2305 produced last month plus a few (19) Amperas.[/QUOTE]

http://media.gm.com/media/us/en/gm/news.detail.html/content/Pages/news/us/en/2012/Dec/gmsales.html
http://media.gm.com/dld/content/Pag...par/download/file.res/Deliveries Nov 2012.pdf

"Sales of the Nissan Leaf battery-electric car rose to 1,539, almost matching last month's total of 1,579, and more than double its November sales of 672 a year ago. November marks only the second time this year that more than 1,000 Leafs have found buyers."

http://www.greencarreports.com/news...g-in-car-sales-volt-falls-by-half-leaf-steady

Not that it's a contest, but that's 20 more than the Volt for the same month ...

Both numbers IMO are disappointing. I was hoping Volt would maintain its last months numbers and Leaf would get closer to 2k given the incredibly cheap lease deals they have now

evnow said:

My expectation is that Spark will be made in numbers similar to Fit EV & Rav 4EV (and 500e ?). I expect them to be mostly owned by previous or current Leaf owners ...

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Toyota, GM and Fiat/Chrysler have already stated they are pure compliance cars for California, to be built in specific numbers over several years to meet the quotas.

Rav4 = 2600 (and they lose $10,000 per car)

Spark = about 2000- 2500 (Toyota sells more cars in California, but Toyota has way more hybrids to affect the zero emissions quota). That SAE Frankenplug is a thing of beauty, because they will never have a warranty claim, and they get the credit for "fast charge capable".

Focus = 5000 "goal", but once they hit their exact CARB number, you'll see even less than the current zero effort to move these cars.

Fiat = I'd guess about 500-1000, and yes, they are already complaining about how huch they lose per car.

Honda = 1000-1500?

I'm not sure if Daimler makes the top six manufacturers, but Tesla did make a drive train for daimler for some future compliance car.

Only the Rav4 is a step over the bare minimum, in my opinion. All the others, including LEAF, put in enough batteries to call it a 100 mile car, which virtually none will ordinarily do.

Rav4 will do 100 miles without breaking a sweat, and could be stretched to 150-200 miles if absolutely necessary. But, make no mistake, it's for compliance only.

There are only three efforts that are NOT strictly compliance:

BMW (not yet here)
Coda
Nissan
Tesla

Not yet broken out between the hybrid and plug-in (Energi) sales but C-Max sold even more in November ...

"C-MAX Hybrids sales gain momentum with 4,848 vehicles in November, a 52 percent increase compared with October; Ford posts best-ever month for electrified vehicle sales"

http://www.sacbee.com/2012/12/03/5027048/c-max-lineup-success-helps-drive.html

TonyWilliams said:

Rav4 = 2600 (and they lose $10,000 per car)
...
Only the Rav4 is a step over the bare minimum, in my opinion. All the others, including LEAF, put in enough batteries to call it a 100 mile car, which virtually none will ordinarily do.

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The above two go hand in hand.

The current state of the batteries do not allow much higher capacity battery to be put into a sub $40k car.