AdventureMuffin
Posts: 9
Joined: Sat Oct 29, 2016 9:43 pm
Delivery Date: 30 Oct 2016

62 kwh batteries for 2013-2020 Leafs - where's the Business Plan???

Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:45 pm

Does anyone have an idea on why there isn’t a successful business plan and organization that has found investors to support the R&D needed for taking new, high density battery modules and installing them in the Leaf’s 24 and 40 KWH battery shells to create 62 KWH of available energy?

Right now, the solution is to find salvaged 62KWH batteries-which will never meet the demand for older Leafs.

Why?

SageBrush
Forum Supporter
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Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: 62 kwh batteries for 2013-2020 Leafs - where's the Business Plan???

Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:10 pm

By all means, have a go at it.
But you may want to read the Fenix thread here first.

The tl;dr version is that investors are more discerning with their money than a starry eyed but clueless "entrepreneur" with a powerpoint presentation might wish for.

The brief summary is such a start-up will end up charging the better part of $15k for the upgrade you are talking about, into a car worth ~ $3,000. Oh, and forget about a real warranty or real engineering. Would be Investors flee and would be customers laugh.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

cwerdna
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Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: 62 kwh batteries for 2013-2020 Leafs - where's the Business Plan???

Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:51 pm

And whatever the price ends up being, will likely need to be too high vs. the remaining value of the car that is past basic and likely EV system + capacities warranties vs. say a used 60 kWh Bolt, which are going for pretty cheap.

The recalled '17 to '18 (all of them) + a subset of '19 Bolt has the weird situation of a stop sale currently being on them. But, it doesn't prevent non-GM dealers nor private party sellers from selling them. And, some GM dealers are ignoring it...

When new, 60 kWh Bolts come with 8 year/100K mile warranty on the HV battery and many EV bits...

(Stop sale will probably lifted once an update is available and applied. ETA is April 2021 per end of https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2020/R ... 1-6414.PDF from https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2019/CHEV ... WD#recalls.)

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium (former)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium (lease over)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

DougWantsALeaf
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Joined: Fri May 10, 2013 8:21 pm
Delivery Date: 18 May 2013
Leaf Number: 407811
Location: Chicago North Side

Re: 62 kwh batteries for 2013-2020 Leafs - where's the Business Plan???

Thu Mar 11, 2021 8:34 pm

Until new cells are $50/kWh, a business model is going to be difficult.
2019 S Plus (93.86% SOH) & 2019 SV Plus (93.35% SOH) Both Silver
2013 Leaf SV sold 2019 with 11 bars
100 Mile Club Member (Number 87)
Max Miles on 13 Leaf: 120 miles
Max Miles on 19 SV+: 242 Highway miles @ 4.5 miles/kWh

AdventureMuffin
Posts: 9
Joined: Sat Oct 29, 2016 9:43 pm
Delivery Date: 30 Oct 2016

Re: 62 kwh batteries for 2013-2020 Leafs - where's the Business Plan???

Thu Mar 11, 2021 9:15 pm

DougWantsALeaf wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 8:34 pm
Until new cells are $50/kWh, a business model is going to be difficult.
Interesting. I see your point. $50/kwh would still be a $3100 battery. Add a few hours of labor and perhaps $4000 replacement.
Yet, be interesting to know what the market is willing to bear on this? Current market average price is $137/kwh, at least according to the article below, putting the price of a 62 kwh battery at $8500, plus labor, possibly above the price point consumers are willing to pay? Perhaps the industry is waiting for solid state batteries, something that Toyota is pursuing and will bring on line in 2021

Price/KWH: https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pac ... t-137-kwh/

Solid state batteries: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Most- ... 2021-debut

knightmb
Posts: 910
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:41 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Feb 2021
Leaf Number: 306291
Location: Franklin, TN

Re: 62 kwh batteries for 2013-2020 Leafs - where's the Business Plan???

Thu Mar 11, 2021 10:24 pm

AdventureMuffin wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:45 pm
Does anyone have an idea on why there isn’t a successful business plan and organization that has found investors to support the R&D needed for taking new, high density battery modules and installing them in the Leaf’s 24 and 40 KWH battery shells to create 62 KWH of available energy?

Right now, the solution is to find salvaged 62KWH batteries-which will never meet the demand for older Leafs.

Why?
The technology is moving faster than the market to replace them. Even if you could work out a deal with Nissan to buy their already assembled and tested new 62 KW/H battery packs separately and get some safety certification that installing them into the Gen 1 Leafs is ok, there will already be 80 KW/H, 100 KW/H, 200 KW/H, Infinity KW/H packs in the near future that will flood into new vehicles and as was already mentioned here, people might just want to buy a new or gently used, newer version of the vehicle with all the technology installed into the vehicle without any hacks or upgrades.

As a case example, I had a 2013 SV that gave me faithful service for 8 years, but the battery was down to 72% SOH and I could only get between 55 and 70 miles a charge (depending on how aggressive I drove). I spent the better part of a year doing research to find a 62 KW/H salvage pack, finding a garage with a lift I could use, getting together the wire hacks and software upgrades to make it work with the salvage pack. The issue I ran into was that doing all of that, I was still looking at nearly $10k to do the upgrade when all the time and expenses are accounted for. I used the money instead to put a major down payment on a gently used 2020 SL Plus. That got my monthly payments low enough, insanely low APR (from the massive down payment) and I know I will drive the car for a long time like my previous one (not interested in resale value) which already has all the extra range, battery, and a whole bunch of extras that the SL Plus comes with that I would never get on my old one. So while all the bells and whistles of the SL Plus are nice, the extra range and being able to charge at +100 KW at the Nissan HQ QC only a mile away (for free) from me was the selling point I wanted. Something that even with a battery upgrade in my old Leaf, still would not match up to how I use my new one, especially with the twice speed QC I can do, which saves so much time.
2020 Leaf SL Plus - (Manufacture Date March 2020)
2013 Leaf SV (8 faithful years of service before trade in at 75,679 miles)

alozzy
Posts: 1929
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Delivery Date: 18 Jan 2017
Location: Vancouver, BC
Contact: Website

Re: 62 kwh batteries for 2013-2020 Leafs - where's the Business Plan???

Fri Mar 12, 2021 1:12 am

It's really unfortunate, but there just isn't a profitable business case right now for selling LEAF battery pack upgrades as a service. Even for DIY, it's marginal at best...

When I purchased my 2013 SV in January of 2017, I was hopeful (perhaps naïve) that, by the time the pack degraded to the point where it was no longer meeting my needs, I could upgrade the pack to a 40 kWh for less than $6k USD ($150/kWh)

My 2013 SV is worth about $7150 USD right now, in my local market (Vancouver, CA). I paid $8000 USD for it 4 years ago. So, thanks to having imported it into Canada from Washington State, it's held its value extremely well.

If I put that $7150 USD towards a 2018 SV (with 40 kWh pack) and imported one from WA, I'd likely have to put in only another $9K - $10K USD ($16k USD total) - about the same as the cost of a used 40 kWh pack!

Put another way, $10k (avg used pack cost with >90% SOH) / 40 kWh = $250 / kWh - way too expensive!

I'm content to play the waiting game for now, perhaps used pack prices will drop over the next couple of years. But at current prices of $250/kWh, there's just no sense in putting a larger pack into my 2013 SV. Sad, but true...
Vancouver, CA owner of a 2013 Ocean Blue SV + QC, purchased 01/2017 in WA
Zencar 12/20/24/30A L1/L2 portable EVSE
1-1/4" Curt #11396 hitch
After market, DIY LED DRLs
LeafSpy Pro + Konnwei KW902 ELM327 BT OBDII dongle
Loving my first BEV :D

cwerdna
Posts: 11996
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: 62 kwh batteries for 2013-2020 Leafs - where's the Business Plan???

Fri Mar 12, 2021 1:23 am

knightmb wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 10:24 pm
62 KW/H battery packs separately and get some safety certification that installing them into the Gen 1 Leafs is ok, there will already be 80 KW/H, 100 KW/H, 200 KW/H, Infinity KW/H packs i
...
+100 KW at the Nissan HQ QC only a mile away (for free) from me was the selling point I wanted.
Battery capacity and energy are measured in kWh, not "KW/H".

if you charge at 50 kW * 1 hour --> 50 kWh came out of the wall. Multiply the units and the numbers. 50 kW * 2 hours --> 100 kWh

kW/h doesn't make much sense in your context. It could make sense if you had say a megawatt power plant and you were talking about how many hours it would take to ramp up from 0 to 1 megawatt output.
AdventureMuffin wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 9:15 pm
Current market average price is $137/kwh, at least according to the article below, putting the price of a 62 kwh battery at $8500, plus labor, possibly above the price point consumers are willing to pay?
...

Price/KWH: https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pac ... t-137-kwh/
Even if someone could buy cells in the quantities needed for that $137 per kWh price and they actually were of the proper specs for the application (e.g. safety, energy density, chare & discharge rates, can withstand automotive needs in terms of temperature swings, vibration and shock, etc.), there's the work that might be needed to qualify the cells. Then, there's the issue of assembling them into packs and the parts associated w/that + engineering work that would be needed for a BMS (to replace or spoof what's inside the pack).

I believe https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?t=17470 is what's inside the pack and what Nissan calls the LBC (Li-ion Battery Controller).

There'd need to be all sorts of validation and safety testing of prototypes, pre-production and whatever stages are needed to achieve production of saleable hardware. Then factor in other stuff like liability, lawyers, technical writers, training, support, procedures, warranty reserves, etc.

https://www.cars.com/for-sale/searchres ... 1&zc=00001 can give you an idea how much 60 kWh '17 Bolts go for now.

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium (former)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium (lease over)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

knightmb
Posts: 910
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:41 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Feb 2021
Leaf Number: 306291
Location: Franklin, TN

Re: 62 kwh batteries for 2013-2020 Leafs - where's the Business Plan???

Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:40 am

cwerdna wrote:
Fri Mar 12, 2021 1:23 am
Battery capacity and energy are measured in kWh, not "KW/H".
Depends on which professor you had teaching... :mrgreen:
2020 Leaf SL Plus - (Manufacture Date March 2020)
2013 Leaf SV (8 faithful years of service before trade in at 75,679 miles)

SageBrush
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Re: 62 kwh batteries for 2013-2020 Leafs - where's the Business Plan???

Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:47 am

AdventureMuffin wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 9:15 pm
Current market average price is $137/kwh, at least according to the article below
That is for large scale manufacturers and is the cell price.

Cottage industry cannot compete with industrial scale, and the logisitics are a killer.
An unusual example here or there aside, most of what we can really hope for is Nissan changes its mind about supporting old LEAFs and sells packs at cost.

And the clock is ticking. I asked my wife the other day if she is interested should it become possible to update the LEAF battery via 3rd party. She is a good test case because she has no interest in new cars per se and likes to keep what she knows. She surprised me with the LEAF though, stating that pouring money into old EV tech did not strike her as a wise choice. I think her main objection was skepticism about reliability and unwillingness to pour money into a product that did not have a confident warranty or support infrastructure. So from her POV such an upgrade would have to be cheap, to offset the increased risks.

As others have said, lightly used Bolts and LEAFs at ~ $15k kill the upgrade market.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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