shrink
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Re: Early Capacity Losses-Was(Lost a bar...down to 11)

Thu Jul 19, 2012 11:33 pm

Here is my 2012 LEAF's ScanGauge reading after about 4-5 days of ownership and 100 miles on 6/30/2012:

Image

Compare to Scott's unfortunate 3-bar loss LEAF:
opossum wrote:Here you go. Scott's car. Neither picture was taken the day he lost the bar.
Image

Whatever the ScanGauge exactly measures, it does read a percentage and - please correct me if I'm wrong - do these numbers reflect a 30% loss of capacity?
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frank999
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Re: Early Capacity Losses-Was(Lost a bar...down to 11)

Thu Jul 19, 2012 11:46 pm

Thank you. I appreciate the reply and answer to my questions.

Another concern that I have is the drastic drop in price for this car. This car has dropped 45% in price after 9 months of ownership and less than 10K miles. the depreciation is worse than the battery life. A car with a full 12 bars is now worth 45% less in less than one year. This is just as concerning as the battery issue. I can't recall the figure, but the salesman told me the car would be worth x percentage after 3 years and I vaguely remember it being like $23K. You can't get $23K after 9 months of ownership for the highend SL version with a perfect battery.

This is a whole separate issue.


Francisco P.




opossum wrote:It was great meeting you also, loser! :o :lol:

Francisco, welcome.

1) 6 and 7 temperature bars seem to be the norm out here in the hotter months. Yes, people have seen 8... and I think higher also!

2) Without tipping our hand to Nissan in a public forum, yes, some Phoenix owners have been working with lawyers and other people/agencies.

3) Last night's meeting in Phoenix... we laughed, we cried, we punched our fists through walls. 8-) We filmed with KPHO CBS 5 for their follow-up story, which should air soon. We measured GIDs on a few cars, including Scott's car with 3 lost bars (see my posts since last night).
Last edited by frank999 on Thu Jul 19, 2012 11:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

frank999
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Re: Early Capacity Losses-Was(Lost a bar...down to 11)

Thu Jul 19, 2012 11:57 pm

All I know is I made the decision to purchase based on the Leaf expert at Nissan. "this vehicle will do just fine in Phoenix". I trusted that they were the experts on this vehicle and would know more than myself. I don't like to assume anything.

Are you reading this thread? I think people would be OK with losing a bar after a couple years. However, there are people losing bars after 6 months of ownership. 1 bar is 15% battery life. Nissan originally advertised 100 mile range. It didn't take any owner more than the drive home from the dealership to realize the realistic range is 75 miles. After a 15% drop in 6 months, they are looking at a range of 60 miles. 60 mile range after 6 months is ridiculous for a $35K car. I don't understand anyone who can't see why people are concerned. And yes, there are more than those on this forum who are experiencing a problem.

It is easy for those not in Phoenix to judge and say, "you're over reacting" - especially if the are in nice and cool northern California... ;) try putting yourself in the shoes of someone who is driving a car with a 50 mile range after 1 year and still owes $30K on the car. By the time they can't even make it one way to work, they will still likely owe $25K. Not to mention the lack of response/help from the dealership - this adds insult to injury.

Just my .02 pesos

Francisco P.





edatoakrun wrote:
"azdre"
Any additional days over 100 degrees that we may have had this year over normal, only would extend the heat exposure by 1 day each. So, say there were 10 extra days over 100 degrees so far this year (I have no idea if this is even close to accurate), the decrease in range and the bar-loss that we are seeing may have been postponed by those 10 days (I'm guessing here). Not 3-4 years...
I do not find your reasoning persuasive.

Did you actually expect, that most Phoenix LEAFs would not lose a capacity bar, until "3-4 years" after delivery?

The additional capacity deterioration and/or BMS restriction on charge levels, caused by high temperatures, is overlaid on the underlying capacity deterioration every LEAF is experiencing, due to other factors.

For example. IF the southwest high temperature anomaly over the last two "hot seasons" (AFAIK, winter temperatures are largely irrelevant) has caused each of the 37 LEAFs with reported loss of one or more bars, to each have lost one more bar on average, over that which would have occurred under "normal" temperatures, and we had experienced those same "normal" temperatures, we might now have a list of only nine LEAFs with lost bars, only two of which would have lost two bars.

Most of the other 28 LEAF owners would probably be oblivious to their significant, but less-than-one-bar loss, of available capacity.

I would not be surprised if that rate of Leafs with bar disappearance by this time, under a dozen rather than several dozen, was about what Nissan was expecting.

And I also expect that Nissan is now trying to figure out the most cost-effective response to the unexpectedly large number of early bar losses, and to the hysteria that it has caused.

Herm
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Re: Early Capacity Losses-Was(Lost a bar...down to 11)

Fri Jul 20, 2012 5:04 am

frank999 wrote: 60 mile range after 6 months is ridiculous for a $35K car.
Its all relative, look at a Volt.. it starts at 35 miles of range and costs more.

We can also look at the $7500 Fed tax credit as an inducement to buy expensive and flaky batteries.

frank999
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Re: Early Capacity Losses-Was(Lost a bar...down to 11)

Fri Jul 20, 2012 6:19 am

Herm wrote:
frank999 wrote: 60 mile range after 6 months is ridiculous for a $35K car.
Its all relative, look at a Volt.. it starts at 35 miles of range and costs more.

We can also look at the $7500 Fed tax credit as an inducement to buy expensive and flaky batteries.

The main difference is that the Volt battery could go to zero and will NEVER be worthless. Why? Because it has a little backup device called an internal combustion engine and gas tank!!! You will be able to drive the car ~250 miles after the battery goes to zero!

As far as the tax credit goes, yes this does help offset the pain. However, not everyone got the tax credit.


Francisco
Last edited by frank999 on Fri Jul 20, 2012 6:25 am, edited 1 time in total.

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TonyWilliams
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Re: Early Capacity Losses-Was(Lost a bar...down to 11)

Fri Jul 20, 2012 6:21 am

Herm wrote:
We can also look at the $7500 Fed tax credit as an inducement to buy expensive and flaky batteries.

They aren't flaky. The guy in the Seattle area (where they are experiencing historically lower temps, while the rest of the USA bakes) has over 40,000 miles has a VERY strong battery. It's also never seen real heat.

There's nothing wrong with the battery in moderate temps, and moderate use. Which makes the case for battery TMS all the more pressing. Elon Musk (Tesla, SpaceX, PayPal) thought Nissan was crazy to offer the car without TMS. We thought they had magic.

I think Nissan still has a chance to save the day, by offering either a new battery or a different car, to affected owners. Honestly, I doubt they will, however. It will open them up to lawsuits (yes, they no doubt will get them anyway) which makes any logical outcome less likely. When their corporate back is against the wall, they will do the conservative "all is normal" all the way to quiet, Non-Disclosure-Agreement, back door settlement with a few owners. Any class action lawsuit settlement is so many years down the road, as to effectively be a non-event to a huge corporation like Nissan.

All will continue to be "normal" once the small number of "hot cars" have been silenced (by small, I mean that out of 30,000 cars, only a teeny, tiny number of the most vocal and aggressive "hot car" complainers will get an NDA settlement).

That's business, folks. The LEAF will go on much the same, as planned, throughout the world. They may be re-evaluating TMS for a 2015 or later LEAF with entirely new batteries, but the basic formula won't change before then. Car companies don't have that kind of flexibility. Sales may tank because of mainstream bad press (far beyond snippets on local Phoenix TV stations) as they did for Volt with Faux Noose on their *ss. In that scenario, I can foresee a shutdown of the Tennesee plant to LEAF production, which will then only make gas burners. If Ghosen leaves Renault/Nissan, the LEAF will get cancelled in that scenario.

I feel bad for folks who I predict will get stuck with a seriously diminished car. But, I still think its a pretty good car for moderate climates (not too hot or too cold).
Thanks,

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mwalsh
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Re: Early Capacity Losses-Was(Lost a bar...down to 11)

Fri Jul 20, 2012 6:31 am

I think Tony nailed it - Nissan more or less ignores the problem; Carlos G. retires; LEAF gets killed.

I hate to be that pessimistic, but that's the kind of guy I am. If it goes down this way, it would be very sad. Because, this aside, the LEAF is a very, very good car.
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Re: Early Capacity Losses-Was(Lost a bar...down to 11)

Fri Jul 20, 2012 6:55 am

Nice summary by Tony W.
frank999 wrote:Another concern that I have is the drastic drop in price for this car. This car has dropped 45% in price after 9 months of ownership and less than 10K miles. the depreciation is worse than the battery life. A car with a full 12 bars is now worth 45% less in less than one year. This is just as concerning as the battery issue. I can't recall the figure, but the salesman told me the car would be worth x percentage after 3 years and I vaguely remember it being like $23K. You can't get $23K after 9 months of ownership for the highend SL version with a perfect battery.
This is a whole separate issue. Francisco P.
Interesting point that has just recently had some data behind it. Even the dealers won't want these cars back for a high value trade in warm-to-hot climates (that distinction will get blurred with media hype).
This google search shows the great predicted retained value reports but they were a while ago ... long before this battery life issue hit the newsstands.
nissan+leaf+(retain+OR+predicted)+value
https://www.google.com/search?q=nissan+leaf+(retain+OR+predicted" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;)+value
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Re: Early Capacity Losses-Was(Lost a bar...down to 11)

Fri Jul 20, 2012 6:59 am

TonyWilliams wrote:
Herm wrote:

That's business, folks. The LEAF will go on much the same, as planned, throughout the world. They may be re-evaluating TMS for a 2015 or later LEAF with entirely new batteries, but the basic formula won't change before then.
The issue for Nissan goes beyond the LEAF, the LEAF's electric powertrain is targeted to the Infiniti brand and NV2000 taxi's and no doubt other models. If the LEAF gets very bad press and sales pretty much tank, then the billions of dollars of investment in the electric platform is at risk if consumers avoid Nissan as a credible electric vehicle manufacturer. They have staked their future on an electric platform, they won't jeopardize that in a hurry.

The Japanese culture is different to ours and whereas GM responded to the Volt Fire Fiasco quickly, offering to buy back cars etc, the Japanese culture is such that they don't want to lose face by admitting fault. They will internally accept the problem and later remedy without so much as an admission. When I worked at ComputerVision many moons ago, the Japanese division downplayed they had a call center for customers to call with an issue, simply having a call center would indicate a faulty product. When they called me for technical support they never claimed our software was faulty, but asked us to help them correct their error in being unable to complete a task. To tell someone else they had goofed up would be rude and they simply wouldn't do it, but they did reach out for help nonetheless.
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Re: Early Capacity Losses-Was(Lost a bar...down to 11)

Fri Jul 20, 2012 7:01 am

TonyWilliams wrote:All will continue to be "normal" once the small number of "hot cars" have been silenced (by small, I mean that out of 30,000 cars, only a teeny, tiny number of the most vocal and aggressive "hot car" complainers will get an NDA settlement).
It's too early and the sample size too small to know the magnitude of the number of "hot cars" with this problem. It may well be 100%, and not just 100% of the owners on this site. It may well be that every LEAF in AZ (and in TX, with 7 reports so far) will have this problem and soon. I don't yet see any indication why that might not happen, just as there is yet no indication that it will.
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