Capacity Loss on 2011-2012 LEAFs

[opossum]

That bottom car was skywagon's. It's on the 1-bar list. I suspect the top one was shrink's.

[edatoakrun]

I would not be surprised if that rate of Leafs with bar disappearance by this time, under a dozen rather than several dozen, was about what Nissan was expecting.

The problem with this reasoning is that we don't have several dozen Leafs that have lost one or more bars in Phoenix. We have several dozen known Leafs that have lost significant capacity. Let's assume that 25% of all Leaf owners in Phoenix are members of MNL (a very generous assumption). That would mean that there are probably 4 times as many Leafs with at least one bar capacity loss (144 Leafs), unless the 25% sample is not representative of the entire Phoenix population of Leaf owners. Remember that of the people Azdre/Opossum know who have Leafs, 70% have lost one or more capacity bars. A larger sample would be nice, but that is an ominous statistic since there is no evidence the sample is biased to contain more bar losers than the general population.

You are correct, in that I should have written:

I would not be surprised if that rate of Leafs with reported bar disappearance by this time, under a dozen rather than several dozen, was about what Nissan was expecting.

Yes, I'm sure there are many more than 37 LEAFs with lost of capacity bars. But I don't think Nissan was, or is, very concerned with those LEAF owners who do not notice, or care about capacity bar loss enough to report, or publicise the fact.

Whatever the number of Southwest LEAFs (and those elsewhere) with unreported bar loss is, I think the current efforts to publicise the problem, will lower the unreported fraction, and that Nissan is well aware of, and trying to figure out the best response, to this other change of "climate".

[opossum]

Update to the "10 people I know" sample...

1. 2 bars
2. 2 bars
3. 2 bars
4. 1 bar
5. 1 bar
6. 1 bar
7. 1 bar (then sold car)
8. on the cusp of losing 1 bar
9. hope to hear from him when he's back from vacation
10. No known capacity loss. 80% charges, owned 1 year, only 5000 miles driven

So...

70% have already lost 1 or 2 bars (15% to 30%+)
10% have just about lost 1 bar (~15%)
10% unknown right now
10% no known loss w/ 80% charges in 1yr/5k

Background: There are 10 people (including my wife) I knew before they purchased Leafs (or met immediately after they purchased their Leafs). I did not meet any of these people *because* they began complaining of capacity/range issues. I simply met them before or immediately after they purchased Leafs. And now, 9 to 15 months later, let's check in on those 10 cars (all here in Phoenix) and see whether they have lost any capacity...

[vrwl]

That bottom car was skywagon's. It's on the 1-bar list. I suspect the top one was shrink's.

Whoever is selling them is selling them at nearly full price (less the $7500 rebate amount), so it appears the latest round of press hasn't yet affected the used car market for these cars.

[Weatherman]

Of course, people can ask whatever price they want, but if there are no bids, there is no market.

If these do sell, it will, likely, be at a much lower price.

[Stoaty]

Yes, I'm sure there are many more than 37 LEAFs with lost of capacity bars. But I don't think Nissan was, or is, very concerned with those LEAF owners who do not notice, or care about capacity bar loss enough to report, or publicize the fact.

True, Nissan would not care about those owners. However, while a lot of owners may not notice, or be too bothered by, a one bar loss, a 3 bar loss puts the Leaf at "end of life" according to industry standards, and it is likely that most people with that magnitude of loss would notice it and complain. So perhaps 30% will complain about a one bar loss, 50% about a two bar loss, 70% about a 3 bar loss and 99% about a 4 bar loss (in 2-3 years). I think the cases reported so far are the tip of a very large iceberg... and you know what happened to the Titanic when it hit one.

[azdre]

"azdre"
Any additional days over 100 degrees that we may have had this year over normal, only would extend the heat exposure by 1 day each. So, say there were 10 extra days over 100 degrees so far this year (I have no idea if this is even close to accurate), the decrease in range and the bar-loss that we are seeing may have been postponed by those 10 days (I'm guessing here). Not 3-4 years...

I do not find your reasoning persuasive.

Did you actually expect, that most Phoenix LEAFs would not lose a capacity bar, until "3-4 years" after delivery?

The additional capacity deterioration and/or BMS restriction on charge levels, caused by high temperatures, is overlaid on the underlying capacity deterioration every LEAF is experiencing, due to other factors.

For example. IF the southwest high temperature anomaly over the last two "hot seasons" (AFAIK, winter temperatures are largely irrelevant) has caused each of the 37 LEAFs with reported loss of one or more bars, to each have lost one more bar on average, over that which would have occurred under "normal" temperatures, and we had experienced those same "normal" temperatures, we might now have a list of only nine LEAFs with lost bars, only two of which would have lost two bars.

Most of the other 28 LEAF owners would probably be oblivious to their significant, but less-than-one-bar loss, of available capacity.

I would not be surprised if that rate of Leafs with bar disappearance by this time, under a dozen rather than several dozen, was about what Nissan was expecting.

And I also expect that Nissan is now trying to figure out the most cost-effective response to the unexpectedly large number of early bar losses, and to the hysteria that it has caused.

Yeah, I'm not an expert, so chances that my assumptions about a few degrees are wrong is pretty good. I wouldn't be pursuaded either.

When I purchased the car, I didn't know what those bars represented really so had no thoughts one way or another about who and when the bars would drop. I noticed a slight, but obvious drop in range this spring, and commented to opossum about it. Then when the bar dropped I felt vindicated in a way. I immidiately called the dealer where I purchased the car to see if I should be concerned. The response was that Nissan engineers had flown out to look at another car with a dropped bar, it's normal and I will not lose another one. Ever? Ever. I was ok with that, I imagine everyone else here was okay with that. Then my range really started falling and dropped another bar 6 weeks after the first.

I think everyone here should be concerned about ending up in this boat with a few of us whose range losses have become significant. I really
hope it all stops soon and it's just a few of us trying to be made whole again. To me the trends seem to indicate that many will follow us down this hole, but I really hope I'm wrong and this ends up really to being much adu about a few severe cases.

[RickS]

Thanks everyone who came out yesterday and sorry the Roosevelt ended up being closed. Still we had a good time, lots of good conversation and even an out of town visitor.

From what I can take out of our readings yesterday, more miles seems to mean more bars dropped and we are approaching the point where some people will no longer be able to use their cars soon. Mine read 82.5% at 12,434 miles (7/18/12) whereas it read 83.6% at 11,383 miles (6/10/12) when I first lost the top bar. Considering the BMS data was reset a week before (as far as I can tell) it hasn't gotten too terribly much worse in 1000 miles. Plus the % (GIDS) varies a bit any how.

To me this shows that it is definitely actual degradation and not a mis-calculation.

[jspearman]

Okay, I just looked at the Wiki on battery loss for the first time and I burst into laughter. I thank the person who distilled my thoughts on the battery situation to, " . . . I am pretty pissed.". While I am occasionally a little verbose and sometimes obtuse, "I am pretty pissed," sums it all up nicely.

[shrink]

I do not find your reasoning persuasive.

Did you actually expect, that most Phoenix LEAFs would not lose a capacity bar, until "3-4 years" after delivery?

Nissan North America Director of Product Planning Mark Perry said in a recent video, "Heat is definitely not a friend of batteries. But I'm talking about severe 130-, 140-degree Fahrenheit kind of heat..

Way back in January of 2010. At the time, Nissan's Perry said, "We don't need thermal management in the U.S. ... We've gone on record saying that the pack has a 70 to 80 percent capacity after 10 years."

Based on what we were told and what is documented "on the record," 15% loss after 3-4 years is hardly an unreasonable expectation when Nissan:

1. Makes Phoenix a launch market,
2. Tells us local temps are not "severe."
3. "On the record" says 20-30% capacity loss after 10 years is expected.

We were, however, obviously wrong.