SageBrush wrote: ↑
Sun Jun 06, 2021 6:33 am
mn4az wrote: ↑
Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:48 pm
GaleHawkins wrote: ↑
Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:01 pm
How do you see your odds of still being in Warranty at the loss of the 4th bar?
So long as we don't have another pandemic and the bars drop every 11k miles like happened between my 1st and 2nd... really good (>90% odds).
Since the software update (done June 21, 2018) we've driven 29222 miles and my SOH is dropping 2.39% every 5K miles. At that rate we should drop the 4th bar at around 82K miles. This means we have to drive it ~21k miles in 34 months (617 miles/month).
Time will tell and I'll keep updating my thread with every bar drop.
If the car lives its life in the same climate, degradation is much more a function of time and not miles driven.
You LEAF battery has degraded ~ 22% since new. The warranty kicks in around 36% degradation.
So e.g. if the car is 5 years old since manufacture, you can expect to hit 36% degradation at 36/(22/5) = 8. 18 years.
Just as Nissan intended. FWIW, Nissan thinks that degradation slows down over time. That has been true in my car. So your chance of winning the battery warranty does not look good to me.
Car has been in same climate (Minnesota) it's entire life as I am the original owner. Your theory may be true, but I'll put out there the following data points to consider:
BMS update (6/21/2018 | 32643 miles) to first bar loss (10/24/2019 | 50731 miles): 2.28 SOH drop per 5K miles driven
BMS update (6/21/2018 | 32643 miles) to 2nd bar loss (6/2/21 | 61865 miles): 2.39 SOH drop per 5k miles driven
From a miles driven perspective the SOH rate drop per 5k miles driven is increasing.
The pandemic slowed our driving down (like everyone else), but I'm guessing we'll be at about ~10K/year now which, if miles driven has greater impact than time, puts us at the warranty replacement sometime in the 2nd half of CY2023 (we bought car late April '16).
Time will tell... I'm taking a LeafSpy measurement every 3 months to see how SOH looks. I'll keep updating the thread as I lose bars or if people are interested in the quarterly SOH numbers I can update at that time as well.