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https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/01/20200127-jarvis.html
In a working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a team from UC Berkeley, UC Santa Barbara and Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) calculates that the social cost of the phase out of nuclear electricity production in Germany is approximately $12 billion per year.
More than 70% of this cost comes from the increased mortality risk associated with exposure to the local air pollution emitted when burning fossil fuels; the researchers found that the lost nuclear electricity production due to the phase-out was replaced primarily by coal-fired production and net electricity imports. . . .
The researchers used hourly data on power plant operations and a novel machine-learning framework to estimate how plants would have operated differently if the phase-out had not occurred. They estimated the economic and environmental costs of the nuclear phase-out in Germany using the rich plant-level data and ambient pollution monitor data.
The novel machine-learning approach predicted which power plants increased their output in response to the nuclear plant closures.
NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.