How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

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WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
Notice again how GRA tries to cast shade on electric cars at every turn. A skilled propagandist.
Again, how is accurately reporting both pro and con shading?

If you did, it might be useful.

If wishes were fishes...


IOW, you've got nothing. Please list every inaccuracy, pro and con, in my report of my Bolt trip. Start here with my trip prep: https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewto...t=bolt+lee+vining+yosemite&start=2280#p591755

then here: https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewto...t=bolt+lee+vining+yosemite&start=2280#p591874

here: https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewto...t=bolt+lee+vining+yosemite&start=2280#p591889

here: https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewto...t=bolt+lee+vining+yosemite&start=2290#p591894

here: https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewto...t=bolt+lee+vining+yosemite&start=2290#p592144

and finally here: https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewto...t=bolt+lee+vining+yosemite&start=2290#p592155
 
My brother-in-law got a LEAF in 2011, a Bolt in 2017, and a Model Y 18 months ago. After taking his Model Y on it's first 300 mile trip, his comment was to the effect "I can finally go on long trips and not worry one bit about where to charge".
 
WetEV, GRA, I fail to see how comparing one set of anecdotal experiences to another set of anecdotal experiences comprises a discussion worthy of taking to the general case, much less argument.

You're both right. You selling popcorn? Because if not, you're missing an opportunity here.

How about you tone it down a bit? Why all the aggression? Can't you just compare notes and leave it at that? Respectfully?

Choosing to believe a thing does not make it so. Consider that your perspective might be incomplete and less than self-evident to the next guy maybe. And no, your data isn't perfect, nor your experience all that representative. Your sample sizes are all way too small, and the underlying objective reality is in flux. The best you can hope for is an imperfect snapshot of some sliver of reality. Maybe. If you're lucky.

No one has perfect data or perfect insight, nor are you going to be the first. Sheesh.
 
I call it "Usenet Syndrome" and I remember well getting locked into it myself, back in the day, on usenet. Looking back on some of our posts from that era, the style doesn't age well...
 
If Donald Trump is successful in hijacking democracy in the US through any means possible (having no ethics makes for a lot of options) in 2024, then mass adoption of EVs won't happen anytime soon...
 
alozzy said:
If Donald Trump is successful in hijacking democracy in the US through any means possible (having no ethics makes for a lot of options) in 2024, then mass adoption of EVs won't happen anytime soon...
EVs will achieve mass adoption when they become truly cost-competitive with ICEs. It's that simple, and DT has nothing to do with it.
 
oxothuk said:
alozzy said:
If Donald Trump is successful in hijacking democracy in the US through any means possible (having no ethics makes for a lot of options) in 2024, then mass adoption of EVs won't happen anytime soon...
EVs will achieve mass adoption when they become truly cost-competitive with ICEs. It's that simple, and DT has nothing to do with it.

Days after taking office, Trump rolled back the 50 mpg by 2026 standard that the Obama administration implemented and tried to freeze them at 2020 standards instead. He had to compromise for a 1.5% increase in average MPG through 2026 instead. Yeah, he loves EVs...

That emissions standard is what drives car manufacturers to make electric cars in the first place.

Gasoline emissions don't just impact GHG emissions, they increase cancer and respiratory illnesses too.

In BC, where I live, we have some of the highest gas prices in North America and a revenue neutral carbon tax compromises a good chunk of that cost at the pump. As a result, EV ownership in British Columbia is higher than any other province or state, other than California.
 
GRA said:
WetEV said:
GRA said:
How is discussing the unreliability of charging as well as that of H2 stations a change of subject? Both are immature infrastructures that lack coverage, density, redundancy and reliability, which is why we need websites like Plugshare and the CAFCP's station status one for now.

Ah yes, roses are both red and have an odor, as do red herrings. Comparing the two isn't usually very meaningful.

Public charging isn't as necessary to a driver as H2 stations are. Most charging is at home or at work. All H2 fueling requires a trip to the H2 station.


It does now, that's the current state of the infrastructure, but it doesn't have to be the case. As one example (IIRR I've posted articles with links to other such systems, which IIRC are primarily being deployed in Japan at the moment): https://www.hydrogencarsnow.com/index.php/home-hydrogen-fueling-stations/ Obviously, we're still at the dem/val or very early commercialization phase with these.

Which is all that hydrogen cars will ever be. Demos. Greenwash. Home conversion from fossil natural gas? A Stanley Steamer burning coal would make more sense.


GRA said:
But since we're talking about trip charging beyond range from home, public charging is absolutely crucial, and in rural areas it's nowhere near numerous or reliable enough.

Of course you only want about trips beyond range from home, less than 5% of the miles and 1% of the trips.

Of course, you want to focus on the few failures rather than on the vast number of successful charges. Of course. We didn't expect anything different.

Of course.


GRA said:
WetEV said:
Public charging is far more reliable than H2 stations are. Sure, there are issues with public charging, you have had more issues on one trip than I've had with 1.5GWh of public charging.

Yet I'm hardly alone having 'issues'.

Sure, and that's all you want to talk about.

Compare with my public charging on EVgo:
2017-09-19 Success
2017-09-21 Success
2017-09-23 Success
2017-09-26 Success
2017-10-03 Success
2017-10-03 Failed, but worked less than 60 seconds later
2017-10-06 Success
2017-10-06 Success
2017-10-10 Success
2017-10-13 Success
2017-10-17 Success
2017-10-19 Success
2017-10-19 Success
2017-10-24 Success
2017-10-29 Success
2017-10-31 Success
2017-11-07 Success
2017-11-13 Success
2017-11-14 Success
2017-11-17 Success
2017-11-17 Success
2017-11-17 Success
2017-11-17 Failed, but worked less than 60 seconds later
2017-12-25 Success
2017-12-25 Success

And so on.

My successful charging history is far more typical than your fairy tales of woe.

Oh, sure there are failures, mostly on Blink machines. But reading your comments one might think that was most of what happened.
 
oxothuk said:
alozzy said:
If Donald Trump is successful in hijacking democracy in the US through any means possible (having no ethics makes for a lot of options) in 2024, then mass adoption of EVs won't happen anytime soon...
EVs will achieve mass adoption when they become truly cost-competitive with ICEs. It's that simple, and DT has nothing to do with it.

What costs do we compare? Including the health costs of air pollution or not?
 
WetEV said:
oxothuk said:
alozzy said:
If Donald Trump is successful in hijacking democracy in the US through any means possible (having no ethics makes for a lot of options) in 2024, then mass adoption of EVs won't happen anytime soon...
EVs will achieve mass adoption when they become truly cost-competitive with ICEs. It's that simple, and DT has nothing to do with it.

What costs do we compare? Including the health costs of air pollution or not?
Purchase cost primarily.

If you want to cover externalities then you need another mechanism like a gas tax.
 
oxothuk said:
WetEV said:
oxothuk said:
EVs will achieve mass adoption when they become truly cost-competitive with ICEs. It's that simple, and DT has nothing to do with it.

What costs do we compare? Including the health costs of air pollution or not?
Purchase cost primarily.

If you want to cover externalities then you need another mechanism like a gas tax.

Practically, you might be correct.

Cost of ownership is already favorable for EVs for many people. Not even including externalities.

Gas tax historically was to pay for roads. Much of road maintenance and construction is now funded out of the general fund.
 
GRA said:
Please list every inaccuracy, pro and con, in my report of my Bolt trip.

Pointless.

Take a trip to a charging station that is likely out of service, and then correctly report that, in detail.

What exactly does that prove?

Use the broad brush, all stations not on the freeway are like that.

Just who are you trying to convince?


And why?
 
GRA said:
WetEV said:
GRA said:
My experiences with the unreliability of charging match plenty of other people's experiences, as reported here, on Plugshare and in other venues.

The plural of anecdote is not data.


Do you just put your faith in whatever supernatural being you may believe in?

Do you always try to start trouble?


GRA said:
When I check to see if stations along a route on a trip I'm planning to take are reported working, and one or more critical ones aren't or have shown a history of unreliability, those anecdotes inform my planning.

You are using one anecdote to mislead. Part of the Fear Uncertainty and Doubt you are trying to spread.

Why?
 
I think this article is relevant.

https://themobilist.medium.com/in-a-rising-threat-the-osborne-effect-confronts-automakers-with-potential-obsolescence-1b1ea660bf45

I think by 2026 we will see EV models in enough variety of models, price points, and range that for 51% of Americans they will be viewed as a very viable purchase, especially if battery prices continue on trend. By 2036, ICE cars are probably going to be considered a bad investment.
 
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