WetEV
Posts: 4622
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

Fri Sep 24, 2021 5:29 am

joybnvds22 wrote:
Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:56 pm
It will take some time to do that, not all people want an EV.
EV in 2011 isn't the same as an EV today, and an EV in the future isn't the same as an EV of today.

People change as well.

Infrastructure changes. A Seattle to Boston EV trip in 2011 would have been vey slow and a real adventure, not today.

I bought a computer in 1978, not everyone wanted a computer then. Almost everyone has a smart phone and/or a tablet or a PC today.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

GRA
Posts: 13362
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

Wed Oct 27, 2021 4:21 pm

GCC:
EIA projects global conventional gasoline and diesel LDV fleet will peak in 2038
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2021/1 ... 7-eia.html

In the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) International Energy Outlook 2021, released earlier this month, the EIA forecast that the global light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet will grow from 1.31 billion vehicles in 2020 to 2.21 billion vehicles by 2050. EIA projected that electric vehicles (EVs)—any LDV with a charging plug—will grow from 0.7% of the global LDV fleet in 2020 to 31% in 2050, reaching 672 million vehicles.

Significant growth in EV sales and shares of sales through the projection period results in the global conventional gasoline and diesel LDV fleet peaking in 2038 in the EIA forecast.

EIA also projects that an increase in economic activity, population, and private mobility will result in more global LDVs through 2050.

EIA projects the population of non-OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries will grow at more than three times the population growth rate of OECD countries and that the non-OECD motorization rate will increase from 92 vehicles per thousand people to 173 vehicles per thousand people between 2020 and 2050. The OECD countries’ motorization rate remains around 530 vehicles per thousand people through the projection period.

Because of this growth in population and motorization rates, EIA projects the number of LDVs in non-OECD countries will surpass those in OECD countries in 2025.

EIA projects EV fleet shares will reach 34% in OECD countries and 28% in non-OECD countries by 2050. Although the conventional LDV fleet peaks in 2023 for OECD countries, faster growth in the non-OECD fleet results in nearly two-thirds of light-duty EVs being in non-OECD countries by 2050.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 13362
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

Wed Oct 27, 2021 6:24 pm

I'm in considerable agreement with this ABG op-ed, at least for current BEV owners:
Rental car companies should focus on trucks, not Teslas

Drive the efficient car every day, rent the truck when you really need it
https://www.autoblog.com/2021/10/27/ren ... not-tesla/


There's also a Hertz commercial which I hadn't seen locally yet, showcasing the model 3s with some anonymous football player :lol:
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 4622
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

Thu Oct 28, 2021 7:02 am

Government spending is dropping per electric car sold. Why are sales rising?

Image

Source is https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-o ... le-markets
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

GRA
Posts: 13362
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

Thu Oct 28, 2021 4:24 pm

Because the cars and infrastructure are improving, and the mandates are getting tighter.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 4622
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

Fri Oct 29, 2021 11:08 am

GRA wrote:
Thu Oct 28, 2021 4:24 pm
Because the cars and infrastructure are improving, and the mandates are getting tighter.
Swiss have no Federal subsidies or mandates.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

GRA
Posts: 13362
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

Fri Oct 29, 2021 4:42 pm

WetEV wrote:
Fri Oct 29, 2021 11:08 am
GRA wrote:
Thu Oct 28, 2021 4:24 pm
Because the cars and infrastructure are improving, and the mandates are getting tighter.
Swiss have no Federal subsidies or mandates.

How big is Switzerland, and what domestic sources of energy do they have?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 4622
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

Sun Oct 31, 2021 8:42 am

GRA wrote:
Fri Oct 29, 2021 4:42 pm
WetEV wrote:
Fri Oct 29, 2021 11:08 am
GRA wrote:
Thu Oct 28, 2021 4:24 pm
Because the cars and infrastructure are improving, and the mandates are getting tighter.
Swiss have no Federal subsidies or mandates.
How big is Switzerland, and what domestic sources of energy do they have?
Vermont + New Hampshire. Mostly hydro. They make clocks and chocolates too. Any other random facts you want?

Swiss have no Federal subsidies or mandates.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

dmacarthur
Posts: 350
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2018 4:00 pm
Delivery Date: 03 Jul 2018
Leaf Number: 306556
Location: Vermont

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

Sun Oct 31, 2021 12:15 pm

Vermont + New Hampshire. Mostly hydro. They make clocks and chocolates too. Any other random facts you want?
And don't forget solar- in my little micro-community in Vermont there are multiple Leafs (mostly older used ones), a couple of Volts (3 actually), 2 Bolts a Tesla and a smattering of others including PHEVs, and most of the owners have installed solar panels to at least partially cover the electrical usage. Of course, solar panels in the Southwest would provide 30% more power than solar panels here but distributing the power source to where the power is getting used makes more sense than producing more power in one location and consuming it thousands of miles away.....
2015 Leaf sold
2019 Leaf Plus S as of 9/30/19
Specialized Hardrock with Bafang midmount 750W
Liv Roam ebike
Stihl battery weedwacker and lawn mower

GRA
Posts: 13362
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: How fast can electric cars replace gas cars?

Sun Oct 31, 2021 4:55 pm

WetEV wrote:
Sun Oct 31, 2021 8:42 am
GRA wrote:
Fri Oct 29, 2021 4:42 pm
WetEV wrote:
Fri Oct 29, 2021 11:08 am

Swiss have no Federal subsidies or mandates.
How big is Switzerland, and what domestic sources of energy do they have?
Vermont + New Hampshire. Mostly hydro. They make clocks and chocolates too. Any other random facts you want?

Swiss have no Federal subsidies or mandates.

IOW, 1/10 the size of California, with no internal energy sources other than Hydro and some PV/Wind, and a high PCI.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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