COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

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cwerdna

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 3, 2011
Messages
13,671
Location
SF Bay Area, CA
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
https://www.who.int/westernpacific/emergencies/novel-coronavirus

Discuss here.

Here's one current live blog on the situation:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/08/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei-wuhan.html

Besides all the implications in terms of human costs (e.g. rapidly spreading infections, illness and deaths), travel (many airlines have reduced or cut service to/from China) and tourism, Wuhan + a bunch of cities being on lockdown, there are effects on supply chains and large companies (e.g. Apple stores closed in China, 2000+ Starbucks closed there), cruise ships where the passengers are held in quarantine, etc.

I saw this in the morning:
Coronavirus claims world's biggest capacity car plant
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-claims-worlds-biggest-capacity-car-plant-050020204--finance.html
Seoul (AFP) - The most productive car factory in the world fell quiet on Friday as South Korea's Hyundai suspended operations at its giant Ulsan complex, hamstrung by a lack of parts with the coronavirus outbreak crippling China's industrial output.

The five-plant network can make 1.4 million vehicles annually, in a coastal location facilitating importing components and exporting cars globally.

edit: updated title
 
I think that the idea is to slow the spread until a more effective treatment is determined, and a vaccine is at least being developed. The Chinese government already gave it a a three week head start that has to be overcome.
 
Yeah. On that note, I didn't get a chance to read this article until now.

China Sacrifices a Province to Save the World From Coronavirus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-05/china-sacrifices-a-province-to-save-the-world-from-coronavirus
 
Perspective gentleman. Over 10,000 people have died in the US this flu season with estimates reaching 25000 for the season. As many as 61,000 people died in the 2017-2018 flu season. I am thinking that this has everyone over excited or overhyped.
The sun will come up tomorrow.
 
downeykp said:
Perspective gentleman. Over 10,000 people have died in the US this flu season with estimates reaching 25000 for the season. As many as 61,000 people died in the 2017-2018 flu season. I am thinking that this has everyone over excited or overhyped.
The sun will come up tomorrow.
A fine example of whataboutism. Thanks for your misleading comparison.

Novel Coronavirus kills someplace between 0.3% and 3% of those infected.
Seasonal flu kills about 0.01%. Some years more, some years less.

So at best, perhaps 30 times worse than the flu, once NC spreads world wide. Which it likely will.
At worse, perhaps 300 times worse than the seasonal flu. The 1917-1918 flu would be similar.

This is a virus. Spreads far easier than SARS, but is similar in many ways. The fact that is new makes it rather different than "the flu", of which there are multiple strains. What seems likely today is that this virus will spread worldwide, and will reoccur every winter. Hopefully a vaccine will be available in a year or so.
 
These are just US Flu statistics. World wide there are more than 650,000 deaths from the flu. Your numbers of "Novel Coronavirus kills someplace between 0.3% and 3% of those infected. Seasonal flu kills about 0.01%. Some years more, some years less" are wrong because we don't yet know how many people have the Corona virus. If there ends up being a lot more coronavirus cases then your 0.3- 3% goes way down.

“When we think about the relative danger of this new coronavirus and influenza, there’s just no comparison,” Dr. William Schaffner, professor of preventive medicine and health policy at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told Kaiser Health News. “Coronavirus will be a blip on the horizon in comparison. The risk is trivial.”

When there are a million coronavirus deaths worldwide then I will take your always snarky remarks and say you are right.
Until then, you are not as smart as you think you are.
Enjoy the rain.


WetEV said:
downeykp said:
Perspective gentleman. Over 10,000 people have died in the US this flu season with estimates reaching 25000 for the season. As many as 61,000 people died in the 2017-2018 flu season. I am thinking that this has everyone over excited or overhyped.
The sun will come up tomorrow.
A fine example of whataboutism. Thanks for your misleading comparison.

Novel Coronavirus kills someplace between 0.3% and 3% of those infected.
Seasonal flu kills about 0.01%. Some years more, some years less.

So at best, perhaps 30 times worse than the flu, once NC spreads world wide. Which it likely will.
At worse, perhaps 300 times worse than the seasonal flu. The 1917-1918 flu would be similar.

This is a virus. Spreads far easier than SARS, but is similar in many ways. The fact that is new makes it rather different than "the flu", of which there are multiple strains. What seems likely today is that this virus will spread worldwide, and will reoccur every winter. Hopefully a vaccine will be available in a year or so.
 
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/09/coronavirus-china-death-toll-for-new-virus-exceeds-that-of-sars.html
Hubei province reported on Sunday morning that there were 81 additional deaths, bringing the total number of deaths in the mainland to 803. The global death toll for the new coronavirus now stands at 805, including one death in the Philippines and another in Hong Kong.

That compares to the SARS outbreak which killed at least 774 people and infected 8,096 people worldwide in 2002 and 2003, according to data from the World Health Organization.
...
The virus has infected more than 35,000 people worldwide, majority of them in mainland China.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/29/china/sars-wuhan-virus-explainer-intl-hnk-scli/index.html has a graph of # of folks infected and deaths for 2019 novel coronavirus vs. SARS. The former is now outdated.
 
The saddest thing to me is that one of the whistle-blowers, who was silenced by the Chinese authorities in the early days in a possible effort to cover up the outbreak, is now dead. To an outsider to me he looked like a relatively heathy young man. So if he didn't have a chance, it really makes me despair for those who already have compromised health or infirmity due to age.
 
mwalsh said:
The saddest thing to me is that one of the whistle-blowers, who was silenced by the Chinese authorities in the early days in a possible effort to cover up the outbreak, is now dead. To an outsider to me he looked like a relatively heathy young man. So if he didn't have a chance, it really makes me despair for those who already have compromised health or infirmity due to age.


From what I've seen and read, the doctors and other vital medical staff in the area are under huge stress and getting little or no rest. This lowers both resilience and immune system strength. I imagine that they are also exposed to a larger viral load in their environment.
 
mwalsh said:
The saddest thing to me is that one of the whistle-blowers, who was silenced by the Chinese authorities in the early days in a possible effort to cover up the outbreak, is now dead. To an outsider to me he looked like a relatively heathy young man. So if he didn't have a chance, it really makes me despair for those who already have compromised health or infirmity due to age.
Right... it was as a Dr. Li: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/07/803680463/china-to-investigate-after-whistleblower-doctor-dies-from-coronavirus.

On a related note, I was listening to this story via the NPR app earlier today:
https://www.npr.org/2020/01/29/800938047/angry-chinese-ask-why-their-government-waited-so-long-to-act-on-coronavirus

Hadn't realized there was such tension between local and central govt there.
 
downeykp said:
When there are a million coronavirus deaths worldwide then I will take your always snarky remarks and say you are right.
Until then, you are not as smart as you think you are.
Enjoy the rain.

Mild cases are under-counted. You are correct. But not by enough to make this milder than the seasonal flu.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

So are deaths, as severe disease and death lags total cases. As the disease takes a week or two or more to kill after exposure, the current total is what would be expected from a couple of weeks ago case total: which is 1/4 of the current case total unless the severe public health measures start to work.

I see Wired has the same take on this as me:

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-is-bad-comparing-it-to-the-flu-is-worse/
 
Under the category of "I'm not as smart" let me list two key uncertainties:

1) Can China contain this virus? Unclear, but unlikely at what is known today.
2) Even if China does, the virus has already spread outside China. Can the rest of the world, including places with almost non-existent health care also contain the virus? Not every government can lock millions of citizens in their houses, and let one person per household out twice a week to buy food. And there isn't much sign this is working, so now China has people going door to door checking for symptoms, and carting all the possible cases off to big rooms full of other possible cases.

Yes, if this could be limited to a tiny fraction of the world's population it would be tiny compared with the annual flu. But that misses the dynamics of the situation. This could kill more that the 1917-1918 flu.Yes, likely a lower death rate, but far more people that might be infected and die. We don't know,the majority of my point. so comparing with anything is false if we don't acknowledge the uncertainties.
 
Video appears to show people in China forcibly taken for quarantine over coronavirus
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/video-appears-show-people-china-forcibly-taken-quarantine-over-coronavirus-n1133096
 
As top exhibitors pull out of MWC, organizers implement stringent safeguards
https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/09/as-top-exhibitors-pull-out-of-mwc-organizers-implement-stringent-safeguards/
Per GSMA CEO John Hoffman,

All travelers from the Hubei province will not be permitted access to the event

All travelers who have been in China will need to demonstrate proof they have been outside of China 14 days prior to the event (passport stamp, health certificate)

Temperature screening will be implemented

Attendees will need to self-certify they have not been in contact with anyone infected.

I listened to this story in NPR's app. Interesting...
Bats Carry Many Viruses. So Why Don't They Get Sick?
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/09/803543244/bats-carry-many-viruses-so-why-dont-they-get-sick
 
An optimistic view from a SARS veteran. "Dr. Leung is an infectious disease epidemiologist and dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/10/opinion/coronavirus-china-research.html
 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nissan-halt-production-japan-factory-113116875.html
TOKYO (Reuters) - Nissan Motor Co <7201.T> will temporarily halt production at its plant in Kyushu, southwestern Japan, due to the coronavirus, the Japanese automaker said on Monday, as the outbreak starts to strain the global supply chain.

In a statement, Nissan, the first automaker to halt production at a plant in Japan because of the outbreak, said that output would be affected on Friday and Feb. 17, due to supply shortages of parts from China.
 
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