lorenfb
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:24 pm

You both are converging on some agreement:

The EV is presently a solution in search of a need for most consumers. Most consumers' present need is satisfied by an ICEV.
The smartphone was a solution that satisfied an interactive communications need, previously in search of a solution.
The PC was basically a solution in search of a need until the internet.
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WetEV
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Sun Dec 22, 2019 8:10 am

GRA wrote:
Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:13 pm
I know that you qualified it by stating "a decade or so", just pointing out that it's far more of "or so" than "decade". You also note the difference between what people believe and what actually happens - there are lots of similar polls in the U.S. and elsewhere, saying that a large % and sometimes a majority of people will consider or are certain a BEV will be their next car, but when it comes time to spend their own money, only a small fraction of them actually buy one. Until the numbers in those surveys show a better correlation with reality, it's essentially just window-shopping.
If 10% of people want a BEV, 8% need to be talked out of it. Price, wait list, lack of advertising, whatever. There are not battery plants functioning today or next year to provide much more than 2% of the auto market with BEVs.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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GRA
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Mon Dec 23, 2019 6:46 pm

Yup, another argument for PHEVs and HEVs for now.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Tue Dec 31, 2019 4:11 pm

GRA wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 3:36 pm
Many of them would just re-role themselves as charging or H2 fuel stations. After all, gas station profits aren't in selling gas, they're in convenience store sales. The profit on gas sales is very low, typically less than 2%, and often negative. Counter-intuitively, gas stations tend to do better when gas prices are low, because then drivers don't shop around for the lowest priced station, they just use the most convenient one.
You have yet to think through the economics of charging or H2. Gas stations are not the same sort of places as charging stations.

Cheap charging will not be DCQC stations in former gasoline stations. It will be L2 or even L1 in parking garages and lots, both public and part of apartments and other housing. Charging that a gasoline station might host, DCQC, is a lot more expensive. Only useful for travelers and other special events.

H2 isn't realistic for vehicles, other than perhaps aircraft or other long duration uses.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
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GRA
Posts: 11957
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Tue Dec 31, 2019 4:37 pm

WetEV wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 4:11 pm
GRA wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 3:36 pm
Many of them would just re-role themselves as charging or H2 fuel stations. After all, gas station profits aren't in selling gas, they're in convenience store sales. The profit on gas sales is very low, typically less than 2%, and often negative. Counter-intuitively, gas stations tend to do better when gas prices are low, because then drivers don't shop around for the lowest priced station, they just use the most convenient one.
You have yet to think through the economics of charging or H2. Gas stations are not the same sort of places as charging stations.
Currently true, owing to slow charging rates. For now, the place to put faster (350+kW) QCs is fast food restaurants, but if batteries improve to the point that charging can be comparable to liquid fueling times, then gas stations can be re-purposed for charging.

WetEV wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 4:11 pm
Cheap charging will not be DCQC stations in former gasoline stations. It will be L2 or even L1 in parking garages and lots, both public and part of apartments and other housing. Charging that a gasoline station might host, DCQC, is a lot more expensive. Only useful for travelers and other special events.
While L1/2 at long-duration sites will play a role, if DC QC can avoid demand charges thanks to the development of cheap storage, the cost barrier largely disappears. Not guaranteed, of course, in which case I agree with you.

WetEV wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 4:11 pm
H2 isn't realistic for vehicles, other than perhaps aircraft or other long duration uses.
Oh, it's realistic, it's just not cost-effective yet other than niches. But if you look at where the retail H2 stations are, they're at existing gas stations, as the operational requirements and business model are virtually identical. If sustainable H2 costs can be brought down and it can be made in the necessary volumes, it will have a part to play. How big that part may be, and whether land, sea or air, will as noted depend on cost and production limits (as well as the competition, of course).

I see H2 for regional air; locomotives in areas without enough traffic to justify electrification; over-the-road transport; faster, longer range ferries and perhaps a majority of oceanic shipping; plus longer-range non-commercial vehicles and various specialized niches that require longer run times/shorter refueling times/portable fuel. BEVs handle virtually all of the shorter duration/range tasks, especially where weight isn't an issue, and biofuels cover the very longest range aviation and (possibly) marine use.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:28 pm

GRA wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 4:37 pm
While L1/2 at long-duration sites will play a role, if DC QC can avoid demand charges thanks to the development of cheap storage, the cost barrier largely disappears. Not guaranteed, of course, in which case I agree with you.
Even if storage is practically free, DCQC is more expensive. Bunch of high power, high current electronics needs to be paid for. And the time factor.

You don't get how home L1/L2 charging is a time saver and a convenience factor because you don't live with an EV.

You don't understand how not needed to schedule a fueling stop into your day is freedom.

You have yet to experience the feeling of driving past a gasoline station when the rain is coming down in sheets, temperature is 36 F and the wind is 36 MPH with higher gusts. And you will never need to stop there. Ever.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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GRA
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:49 pm

WetEV wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:28 pm
GRA wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 4:37 pm
While L1/2 at long-duration sites will play a role, if DC QC can avoid demand charges thanks to the development of cheap storage, the cost barrier largely disappears. Not guaranteed, of course, in which case I agree with you.
Even if storage is practically free, DCQC is more expensive. Bunch of high power, high current electronics needs to be paid for. And the time factor.

Sure it's more expensive, but it's not as if any profitable public charging is cheaper than gas at the moment.

WetEV wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:28 pm
You don't get how home L1/L2 charging is a time saver and a convenience factor because you don't live with an EV.

You don't understand how not needed to schedule a fueling stop into your day is freedom.

You have yet to experience the feeling of driving past a gasoline station when the rain is coming down in sheets, temperature is 36 F and the wind is 36 MPH with higher gusts. And you will never need to stop there. Ever.

I have no problem with the convenience of home/work L2, but I lived with a BEV for a week and L1 is the opposite of convenience, at least with a short range BEV; it's far too restrictive for spur of the moment trips if you have a low battery. I see L1 primarily useful for smaller battery PHEVs, and maybe some workplace charging along with L2s, as well as long-stay parking at airports and the like.

The feeling of driving past gas stations? Not having to schedule a fuel stop into my day is freedom? I haven't had to schedule a fuel stop into my routine day for 20 years, as I commute and do errands by bike. As opposed to hoping that the one charging site along my route which I've had to plan my entire trip around is both free and working? You've got to be kidding. Someday, when charging is ubiquitous and fast, sure, but not now.
Last edited by GRA on Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 3749
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:40 pm

GRA wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:49 pm
Sure it's more expensive, but it's not as if any profitable public charging is cheaper than gas at the moment.
L2 charge stations can be both profitable and cheaper than gasoline, if reasonable utilization rate and if electric rates are not too high.
GRA wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:49 pm
WetEV wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:28 pm
You don't get how home L1/L2 charging is a time saver and a convenience factor because you don't live with an EV.
I lived with a BEV for a week
Wow. Now that's a lot of experience. /s
GRA wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:49 pm
and L1 is the opposite of convenience, at least with a short range BEV;
If you use more range in a day that can be recharged while you sleep, yes. Not everyone uses that much range in a day. Many people find L1 convenient. Larger battery would help some, by leveling off peak days.
GRA wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:49 pm
I see L1 primarily useful for smaller battery PHEVs, and maybe some workplace charging along with L2s, as well as long-stay parking at airports and the like.
Or for people with smaller driving needs, perhaps?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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GRA
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Fri Jan 03, 2020 4:52 pm

WetEV wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:40 pm
GRA wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:49 pm
Sure it's more expensive, but it's not as if any profitable public charging is cheaper than gas at the moment.
L2 charge stations can be both profitable and cheaper than gasoline, if reasonable utilization rate and if electric rates are not too high.

But are any profitable and cheaper than gasoline? Not around here. Maybe in your neck of the woods, but you've got some of if not the lowest electric rates in the country thanks to lots of depression-era government-funded hydro (and now wind). California's got the highest gas prices and some of the highest electricity prices in the country, and I know of no for-profit EV charging network that has lower prices than gas for a hybrid, and in many cases even for a moderate mpg ICE like mine.

WetEV wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:40 pm
GRA wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:49 pm
WetEV wrote:
Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:28 pm
You don't get how home L1/L2 charging is a time saver and a convenience factor because you don't live with an EV.
I lived with a BEV for a week
Wow. Now that's a lot of experience. /s
Never claimed it was a lot (see my sig), but it was more than enough to convince me that short-ranged BEVs limited to L1-only are simply unacceptable to me, and as numerous posts here over the years show, lots of BEV owners - do you disagree? For some who have access to another vehicle or who only have minimal range needs and never take spur of the moment trips it may be adequate, but not for most people. As it was I was treating the week I had the BEV as an experiment, so didn't use my ICE even though I could have, just to see what being reliant on a BEV meant. Of course, that was in the late '90s, so public charging infrastructure, while still far from adequate, is a lot better now. But IMO L1 just doesn't cut it for BEV-only households, unless your driving needs are entirely predictable, and never come close to using the total battery capacity. How many can say that? How many want to leave themselves with so little margin?

WetEV wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:40 pm
GRA wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:49 pm
and L1 is the opposite of convenience, at least with a short range BEV;
If you use more range in a day that can be recharged while you sleep, yes. Not everyone uses that much range in a day. Many people find L1 convenient. Larger battery would help some, by leveling off peak days.

Which is why I'm a fan for now of PHEVs with small packs that can be fully charged on L1 overnight, as it keeps the cost of the cars and the charging infrastructure to an absolute minimum, while allowing a much larger reduction in fossil-fuel use per dollar spent (and battery cells made) than a big-battery BEV. 'Many' isn't the same as 'most', and most BEV owners here consider L1-only as unacceptable as I do. Yes, a larger battery can provide a reserve (which is why I specifically mentioned a short-range BEV), and that's helpful, provided you have enough time to recover the excess usage before you need it again. But if you can't count on that, you're screwed if BEV-only.

WetEV wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:40 pm
GRA wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:49 pm
I see L1 primarily useful for smaller battery PHEVs, and maybe some workplace charging along with L2s, as well as long-stay parking at airports and the like.
Or for people with smaller driving needs, perhaps?
See above. Provided their range needs are minimal and they never have to make a no-notice emergency run, or they have a second car that isn't so limited. We can come up with niche exceptions, but they aren't typical or, for most people, acceptable.

I'm gone for a while, so any reply to a future post of yours will be delayed.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 3749
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:15 pm

...plus more stations with lower-priced fuel. Even so, the U.S. was always going to be one of if not the toughest markets for FCEVs, given our low gas prices.
Renewable sourced hydrogen is always going to be far more expensive than electric power. Electric power at home is about a third the price of gasoline, today in Washington State.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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