WetEV
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Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Fri Nov 22, 2019 9:38 pm

GRA wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 3:19 pm
For the general public, the value for money barrier is at least 300 and probably 350+ miles while being affordable, which is why virtually every ICE will go at least that far with no worries.
For an ICE, adding range is almost free. So ICEs will likely have more range than needed, as the marginal return of value doesn't need to be large to repay the marginal cost of a larger gas tank.

Most of the time, when comparing a BEV and an ICE with the same range, the BEV will be more convenient, as long as it has the range to be recharged only at home. For road trips, the ICE will be more convenient as fueling is faster than charging, and as there are many more gas stations than DCQCs.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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WetEV
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Fri Nov 22, 2019 9:40 pm

GRA wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 4:50 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 4:21 pm
GRA wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 3:19 pm
For the general public, the value for money barrier is at least 300 and probably 350+ miles while being affordable, which is why virtually every ICE will go at least that far with no worries.
For an ICE, adding range is almost free. The whole fuel tank costs a few hundred dollars, and So ICEs will likely have more range than needed, as the marginal return of value doesn't need to be large to repay the marginal cost of a larger gas tank.

More range than needed as determined by whom?
Distribution of customers wants and needs.

Incremental cost of adding 1 mile of range to an ICE is tiny, less than a dollar. So if the manufacturer is economically efficient, they add range until the marginal value added is roughly equal to the marginal cost of adding range. As the marginal cost is tiny, the equilibrium will be out where the marginal value added is tiny. Only a few people care a little about adding a mile of range to a 250 mile range ICE. But that's enough.

A BEV has different economics. Adding range isn't almost free, so BEVs are likely to have lower ranges than ICEs. Even after they have almost totally displaced ICEs.


One extreme. For far less than the cost of a LEAF battery, I know someone that says he put tanks* in his pickup so he could drive coast to coast without refueling assuming EPA MPG. That is of course without pulling a trailer, which halves the MPG, which he usually does. Or the speed he typically drives, which reduces the MPG as well. I suspect the truck wouldn't get the full EPA MPG with the extra 100 gallons of diesel as well, even if driven sanely. Everyone has to pee multiple times on a 48 hour drive, which is how long it would take at 60MPH, about the speed you would need to drive to make it without a fuel stop. Not to mention sleep and other human needs. There is almost no value to this range for the vast majority of people.

*(replaced the main tank with a larger one, and added an extra tank. Total cost was ~$2000 in parts)

Almost no one wants 2900 EPA miles of range. If more than a tiny number did, you could buy it from the factory. It would probably add a few hundred dollars to the price.

My neighbors in Massachusetts. They had driven once to Springfield MA. That's about 70 miles one way, 140 miles round trip. What's the actual value to them of the difference between a 200 mile BEV and a 400 mile BEV? PDC to zero, eh?

My father recently bought a 40kWh LEAF. He didn't see the value of the larger battery. His longest drive anymore is about 50 miles round trip, from one side of Denver to the other.

The other extreme. My grandparents never left a small town in the last 20 years of their life. My grandfather drove a few blocks to the grocery story and a few more to church. He could used a 10 mile range BEV without any impact on their life. And that's adding more for multiple trips per day, heating and cooling, capacity loss and such. The town is less than 1 mile east to west, and 1.4 miles north to south. Not a single round trip over two miles, starting from his house. People came to visit him from far away. He didn't travel anymore.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Fri Nov 22, 2019 10:20 pm

Did you deliberately create a topic title that would never come up in a search for a discussion like this? If so, why? Do you feel that the subject isn't useful?
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GRA
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:21 pm

WetEV wrote:
Fri Nov 22, 2019 9:40 pm
GRA wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 4:50 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 4:21 pm


For an ICE, adding range is almost free. The whole fuel tank costs a few hundred dollars, and So ICEs will likely have more range than needed, as the marginal return of value doesn't need to be large to repay the marginal cost of a larger gas tank.

More range than needed as determined by whom?
Distribution of customers wants and needs.
Uh huh, and the typical customer values range for convenience, flexibility and peace of mind.

WetEV wrote:
Fri Nov 22, 2019 9:40 pm
Incremental cost of adding 1 mile of range to an ICE is tiny, less than a dollar. So if the manufacturer is economically efficient, they add range until the marginal value added is roughly equal to the marginal cost of adding range. As the marginal cost is tiny, the equilibrium will be out where the marginal value added is tiny. Only a few people care a little about adding a mile of range to a 250 mile range ICE. But that's enough.

A BEV has different economics. Adding range isn't almost free, so BEVs are likely to have lower ranges than ICEs. Even after they have almost totally displaced ICEs.

Yes, the incremental cost of more range in an ICE is small, unlike a BEV, but it's not zero. However, manufacturers have almost every reason to minimize the size of the tank in an ICE,. as it boosts internal pax/cargo capacity, reduces price (and fairly minimally, weight), and makes protection in crashes easier. But there's one overwhelming reason why they don't do that, and that's because the majority of their customers demand more range, not less. How do you think they settled on 300+ miles in the first place? Or look at this recent J.D. Power survey:
. . . Following are key findings about battery-electric vehicles:

Mobility Confidence Index remains neutral for battery-electric vehicles: With an overall score of 55, confidence about the future of battery-electric vehicles remains neutral. Attributes scoring lowest include likelihood of purchasing an electric vehicle and reliability of electric compared to gas-powered vehicles.

Challenges for acceptance: Industry experts say that consumer affordability and trust remain the top challenges for battery-electric vehicle acceptance. They also recognize that the cost to produce electric vehicles and the development of a charging infrastructure are critical challenges that must be addressed.

EV ownership affects battery-electric vehicle purchase consideration: More than half (60%) of those who have owned a battery-electric vehicle are “extremely likely” or “very likely” to repurchase a similar vehicle. Conversely, 59% of those who have never been in such a vehicle are “not too likely” or “not at all likely” to purchase or lease one. However, more than three-fourths (77% of owners and 76% with no experience) say tax credits or subsidies would factor into their purchase decision. J.D. Power also noted that a mere 4% of respondents have owned a battery-electric vehicle while 68% say they have never been in a battery-electric vehicle.

Pros and cons: Nearly two-thirds (63%) of respondents say battery-electric vehicles are better for the environment. Half of respondents also believe the cost of charging compared with the cost of gas will be advantageous. However, 65% are concerned about the availability of charging stations. More than half (60%) of respondents are concerned about driving range, with 76% of those with no battery-electric vehicle experience expecting vehicles to have a driving range of 300 miles or more. . . .
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/1 ... 3-jdp.html


These survey results are quite typical of the general public. Here's another:
. . . When Autolist asked consumers for the minimum range they’d accept in a $35,000 electric vehicle, the leading answer was “between 250 and 300 miles”—stipulations perhaps most closely met by the Hyundai Kona Electric, with its $37,995 base price and 258-mile EPA-rated range. The Chevrolet Bolt EV and Kia Niro EV are also close to meeting those expectations.

But when Autolist asked the same about a $70,000 EV, the most common response was “more than 500 miles. . . .”

There’s a riptide beneath these impressions, and that’s age. The survey found a direct and pronounced correlation between age and the importance of EV range. For instance, 32 percent of those 18-23 years old listed range among the top three avoidance issues, while for those over 76 years old it was in the top three for 60 percent. Autolist reports that there was a similar trendline created between age and the importance of the charging network, although that one had an inflection point around age 45. . . .
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... -avoid-evs


It seems that consumers who know how expensive BEV batteries are may be willing (for now) to accept a bit less range, but they obviously would want the same range as in a luxury vehicle; they just know they can't afford it even if it were available. Meanwhile, Toyota runs TV ads touting their various HEV models with ranges of 500, 600 or 700 miles. If no one cared, why would they be spending money promoting this? They could build a Prius with a half-size tank, and plenty of PHEV basic conversions like the Fusion & C-Max Energis/Subaru Crosstrek HEV wouldn't need to have their cargo or passenger space compromised.

The age trends should also be taken into consideration with who's buying cars (in th U.S.) now, and that's predominantly older buyers: viewtopic.php?f=7&t=30575#p572151

<Snip anecdotal accounts of extreme ends of range needs or more importantly, wants. FWIW, my dad had a 25 gal. aux. tank dealer-installed in the trunk of his '76 Peugeot 504D, which added to the 15 gal. standard tank gave that car a highway range of 1,200 miles. The reason? He was concerned about running out of diesel on a road trip if truck stops wouldn't serve him - at the time, few gas stations sold diesel, and IIRR there was an issue of the price at truck stops w/wo tax, plus the quantity of fuel was so low that many truck stops didn't want to have space taken up by cars. When you bought the car Peugeot gave you a book that listed all the gas stations that sold diesel in the U.S. - think of it as a pre-internet version of Plugshare).

Besides, he drove a truck for a living and AFAICT had a cast-iron ass and a huge bladder, because on a trip he stopped for my needs or the car's, not his. I seem to have inherited some of that, or maybe the cars I drive now just have generally better seats: the '65 Impala's were awful, but his Peugeot was just about the most comfortable riding car I've ever been in, with seats that were light years ahead of the Impala's and would match up pretty well with some of the best today. A terrifically comfortable suspension too, with a soft compression stroke and a firm rebound on the shocks, although like most French cars of the era with that combo and no anti-roll bars it "cornered on its door handles".>
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

johnlocke
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Sat Nov 23, 2019 6:22 pm

ICE's with 300 mile + ranges are an artifact of the Seventies gas shortages. Spending hours waiting in line for gas that you can only buy every other day changes your mind on how big the gas tank should be! Prior to then most cars only went a couple of hundred miles between fill ups. I drove a 65 Buick with a 445 CI engine that would pass anything except a gas station. 25 gal tank and 8 miles to the gallon. I later owned a Corvair that had a 12 gal tank and got 18 m/gal. Then a Pinto with another 12 gal tank and 21 mpg. By the late 70's though gas tanks got noticeably larger. Nobody wanted to have to fill up more than once a week if they had to spend an hour in line to get gas, so gas tanks got larger.

People got used to larger tanks and the convenience of filling up once every week or two. It was never about how far you could go at one time but rather how long you could go between fill ups. With BEV's and home charging, that changes. If you can fill up every night while you sleep, absolute range is a non-issue unless you exceed the battery's capability on a regular basis. The biggest reason for a larger battery is to limit the number of charge cycles and lower the stress during discharge.
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cwerdna
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Sat Nov 23, 2019 6:59 pm

johnlocke wrote:
Sat Nov 23, 2019 6:22 pm
With BEV's and home charging, that changes. If you can fill up every night while you sleep, absolute range is a non-issue unless you exceed the battery's capability on a regular basis. The biggest reason for a larger battery is to limit the number of charge cycles and lower the stress during discharge.
Yet, judging by how the Model 3 is decimating everyone else in US EV sales at https://insideevs.com/news/373812/ev-sa ... mber-2019/, I doubt it's because of what you list as the "biggest reason".

FWIW, someone I know at my work used to lease a 24 kWh Leaf. IIRC, her commute is ~30 to 35 miles each way, almost all highway. To make it comfortably, she had charge on both ends (at home and my work). Charging is free at my work. Leaf went back at end of lease and she got a Bolt pretty early on. She doesn't need to charge quite as often now and she can limit her charging to just free charging at work.

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WetEV
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:21 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Fri Nov 22, 2019 10:20 pm
Did you deliberately create a topic title that would never come up in a search for a discussion like this? If so, why? Do you feel that the subject isn't useful?
Not all discussions need to be easily searchable.
Not all problems have technical solutions.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
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WetEV
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:52 pm

GRA wrote:
Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:21 pm
WetEV wrote:
Fri Nov 22, 2019 9:40 pm
if the manufacturer is economically efficient, they add range until the marginal value added is roughly equal to the marginal cost of adding range.

Yes, the incremental cost of more range in an ICE is small, unlike a BEV, but it's not zero. However, manufacturers have almost every reason to minimize the size of the tank in an ICE,. as it boosts internal pax/cargo capacity, reduces price (and fairly minimally, weight), and makes protection in crashes easier. But there's one overwhelming reason why they don't do that, and that's because the majority of their customers demand more range, not less. How do you think they settled on 300+ miles in the first place? Or look at this recent J.D. Power survey:
Missed the point again, didn't you?

Consider if the market was exactly divided between ICE and BEV.

BEVs would have shorter ranges than ICEs. Why? It is easier to add range to an ICE.

Half of the people would be OK with the BEV range, and like the advantages of a BEV.

Half of the people would rather have more range, faster fueling and be willing pay more for fueling, pay more for maintenance, and so on.

If you are waiting for the BEV range to exceed an ICE range for market crossover, you will wait too long.

J.D. Power or any other survey is going to tell you that 98% of people are not buying BEVs today. Oh Duh. And two years ago that was 99%. And five years ago that was 99.5%. Didn't tell you anything then, doesn't tell you anything now.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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2014 Leaf SL Red
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goldbrick
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:54 pm

Don't forget that buying decisions are seldom rational. For example, LED lightbulbs are much cheaper in the long run than standard incandescent lightbulbs but try selling that to the average American consumer. There are countless other examples.

LeftieBiker
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Re: Mink hole, like a rat hole but much much nicer

Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:28 pm

goldbrick wrote:
Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:54 pm
Don't forget that buying decisions are seldom rational. For example, LED lightbulbs are much cheaper in the long run than standard incandescent lightbulbs but try selling that to the average American consumer. There are countless other examples.

Having has several LED bulbs fail after less than one year (and the same thing happening with numerous fluorescents before them) I'm not sure that that's a good example...
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PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

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