DaveinOlyWA
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Thu Oct 14, 2021 6:09 am

Nubo wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 1:34 pm
I'm calling this one "done". Everyone is going to acquire immunity whether it's from vaccination or transmission. To me vaccination is by far preferable, but either way the virus will soon begin running out of non-immunized hosts. It's going to be time to move on.
Never happen. We missed our chance to eradicate or at least minimalize. It will be with us for life hanging around like the flu. Sadly despite the dire warnings, a significant niche considers it "acceptable risk"
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 25,047 mi, 92.12% SOH
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

WetEV
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:25 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 6:09 am
Nubo wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 1:34 pm
I'm calling this one "done". Everyone is going to acquire immunity whether it's from vaccination or transmission. To me vaccination is by far preferable, but either way the virus will soon begin running out of non-immunized hosts. It's going to be time to move on.
Never happen. We missed our chance to eradicate or at least minimalize. It will be with us for life hanging around like the flu. Sadly despite the dire warnings, a significant niche considers it "acceptable risk"
See "Russian Flu" aka https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%8 ... 0_pandemic

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_OC43
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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Nubo
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:19 pm

DaveinOlyWA wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 6:09 am
Nubo wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 1:34 pm
I'm calling this one "done". Everyone is going to acquire immunity whether it's from vaccination or transmission. To me vaccination is by far preferable, but either way the virus will soon begin running out of non-immunized hosts. It's going to be time to move on.
Never happen. We missed our chance to eradicate or at least minimalize. It will be with us for life hanging around like the flu. Sadly despite the dire warnings, a significant niche considers it "acceptable risk"
We agree. By "done" I mean transitioning from pandemic to endemic, like the flu. Expecting it to be eradicated is rather optimistic; the only human disease we've ever eradicated was smallpox.
The vaccines weren't meant to eradicate, just to give protection without having to suffer the consequences of unprotected infection and to slow the spread. The pool of non-immunized continues to shrink one way or another, hopefully soon limiting the spread and virulence to (yes) acceptable levels. We could have had a softer landing had people been more reasonable, but that's life.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

WetEV
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:01 pm

Nubo wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:19 pm
Expecting it to be eradicated is rather optimistic; the only human disease we've ever eradicated was smallpox.
SARS.

https://www.cdc.gov/sars/index.html

Ebola, several times. The last time with a vaccination campaign.


Or somehow are these diseases that infect humans not "human disease"?

Diseases that are easier to eradicate make almost everyone infected sick.

SARS-CoV-2 isn't realistic to be eradicated, as many cases (roughly 40%) are mild or asymptomatic. If you can't easily find all the infections, then it is very hard to stop spread.

Related diseases, the coronaviruses that cause the common cold, don't cause life-long immunity after infection. Unlike smallpox. Vaccinating everyone is hard. Vaccinating everyone multiple times would be very hard.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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Nubo
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:41 pm

WetEV wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:01 pm
Nubo wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:19 pm
Expecting it to be eradicated is rather optimistic; the only human disease we've ever eradicated was smallpox.
SARS.

https://www.cdc.gov/sars/index.html

Ebola, several times. The last time with a vaccination campaign.


Or somehow are these diseases that infect humans not "human disease"?
"Ebola [eradicated] several times" suggests a paradox that can be resolved by distinguishing between "Eradicated in people" vs. "Totally eradicated".
Here's the Wiki article on Eradication https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eradicati ... s_diseases
I suspect SARS is not on the list because it has an animal vector; i.e. while not currently evident in the human population the virus may still have hosts. Ebola likewise may continue to have an animal reservoir. Both diseases would still represent a risk of future outbreaks.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

WetEV
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Thu Oct 14, 2021 6:46 pm

Nubo wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:41 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:01 pm
Nubo wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:19 pm
Expecting it to be eradicated is rather optimistic; the only human disease we've ever eradicated was smallpox.
SARS.

https://www.cdc.gov/sars/index.html

Ebola, several times. The last time with a vaccination campaign.


Or somehow are these diseases that infect humans not "human disease"?
"Ebola [eradicated] several times" suggests a paradox that can be resolved by distinguishing between "Eradicated in people" vs. "Totally eradicated".
Here's the Wiki article on Eradication https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eradicati ... s_diseases
I suspect SARS is not on the list because it has an animal vector; i.e. while not currently evident in the human population the virus may still have hosts. Ebola likewise may continue to have an animal reservoir. Both diseases would still represent a risk of future outbreaks.
Smallpox also has an animal reservoir, as is closely related to a virus present in African rodents. It jumped to humans once, it might again.

I see a fuzzy line, no clear distinguishing between "Eradicated in people" vs. "Totally eradicated".
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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Nubo
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:35 pm

WetEV wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 6:46 pm
Nubo wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:41 pm
WetEV wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:01 pm


SARS.

https://www.cdc.gov/sars/index.html

Ebola, several times. The last time with a vaccination campaign.


Or somehow are these diseases that infect humans not "human disease"?
"Ebola [eradicated] several times" suggests a paradox that can be resolved by distinguishing between "Eradicated in people" vs. "Totally eradicated".
Here's the Wiki article on Eradication https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eradicati ... s_diseases
I suspect SARS is not on the list because it has an animal vector; i.e. while not currently evident in the human population the virus may still have hosts. Ebola likewise may continue to have an animal reservoir. Both diseases would still represent a risk of future outbreaks.
Smallpox also has an animal reservoir, as is closely related to a virus present in African rodents. It jumped to humans once, it might again.

I see a fuzzy line, no clear distinguishing between "Eradicated in people" vs. "Totally eradicated".
The smallpox virus itself only infected humans. But we're getting lost in the weeds. My original point remains valid even if we admit SARS and Ebola as having been eradicated. Feel free to argue with the WHO. ;)
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

DaveinOlyWA
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Sat Oct 16, 2021 9:17 am

Nubo wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:19 pm
DaveinOlyWA wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 6:09 am
Nubo wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 1:34 pm
I'm calling this one "done". Everyone is going to acquire immunity whether it's from vaccination or transmission. To me vaccination is by far preferable, but either way the virus will soon begin running out of non-immunized hosts. It's going to be time to move on.
Never happen. We missed our chance to eradicate or at least minimalize. It will be with us for life hanging around like the flu. Sadly despite the dire warnings, a significant niche considers it "acceptable risk"
We agree. By "done" I mean transitioning from pandemic to endemic, like the flu. Expecting it to be eradicated is rather optimistic; the only human disease we've ever eradicated was smallpox.
The vaccines weren't meant to eradicate, just to give protection without having to suffer the consequences of unprotected infection and to slow the spread. The pool of non-immunized continues to shrink one way or another, hopefully soon limiting the spread and virulence to (yes) acceptable levels. We could have had a softer landing had people been more reasonable, but that's life.
We actually have eradicated several...oh wait! Forgot about the developing (funny how we rename things to ease our conscious...) nations who can't afford vaccines. But anyway, we have marginalized many diseases thru vaccination and yeah, we have a handful that hang on every year in various pockets of the World so "eradication" is not completely accurate but saying vaccines don't remove disease is a bit inaccurate.
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 25,047 mi, 92.12% SOH
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

WetEV
Posts: 4622
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:30 pm

DaveinOlyWA wrote:
Sat Oct 16, 2021 9:17 am
Nubo wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:19 pm
The vaccines weren't meant to eradicate, just to give protection without having to suffer the consequences of unprotected infection and to slow the spread. The pool of non-immunized continues to shrink one way or another, hopefully soon limiting the spread and virulence to (yes) acceptable levels. We could have had a softer landing had people been more reasonable, but that's life.
We actually have eradicated several...oh wait! Forgot about the developing (funny how we rename things to ease our conscious...) nations who can't afford vaccines. But anyway, we have marginalized many diseases thru vaccination and yeah, we have a handful that hang on every year in various pockets of the World so "eradication" is not completely accurate but saying vaccines don't remove disease is a bit inaccurate.
These vaccines for Covid-19 were not intended to eradicate, and eradication isn't likely.

Based on what we long have known about other coronavirus diseases, sterilizing immunity doesn't last. Colds just keep coming around every couple of years. So we would need to vaccinate everyone, and repeat often for a long time. Including in war zones. Including all sorts of other issues.

It would take quite a while with zero confirmed cases before we could be fairly sure. Any little slack off and it would come back.

And to what gain? Covid-19 is likely to end up somewhat like the other coronaviruses we already live with. Also known as "the cold". Deadly to those in isolated societies that never caught it as children. Sometimes fatal to the very old and the very sick.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03792-w
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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danrjones
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Re: COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

Tue Oct 19, 2021 7:36 am

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