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Re: Gen2 multiple battery size guesses.

Posted: Sun Jan 26, 2014 1:18 pm
by DanCar
Nice spreadsheet. Any guesses when Nissan will let me buy a $40K 150 mile electric range vehicle?

Re: Gen2 multiple battery size guesses.

Posted: Sun Jan 26, 2014 4:45 pm
by WetEV
Anderlan wrote:--the highest sustained discharge rate is cruising at 80mph which equals..around 25kw...
Never driven over a mountain pass, have you?

It's fairly easy to sustain 40kW or more in mountain driving.

Suppose you gain 2000 feet in 7.5 miles at 60 MPH. Speed will be using 15kW. Climbing will be using: 1.5kWh(from Tony's range chart)/1000 feet altitude * 2000 feet/ 0.125 hours, or another 24kW. That's Steven's Pass in Washington, from a little before the "Iron Goat" rest stop to the summit.

Re: Gen2 multiple battery size guesses.

Posted: Sun Jan 26, 2014 8:05 pm
by DougWantsALeaf
guessing 30Kwh if any increase in 2015. Similar to Tesla, there are really no other competitive cars in their price band (you can't count the CA 0 emissions vehicles which are small quantities only).

What will be interesting to see is if Tesla can get down to Leaf price territory before Nissan can up range significantly. I think both companies are at capacity in terms of sales, so neither is that worries about the other yet.

Re: Gen2 multiple battery size guesses.

Posted: Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:16 pm
by reeler
I think Nissan will do a 30KWh and 40KWh option. This would be across models as a $5K option. They will release this in 2015 to take the mojo out of Tesla's Model C. They might even claim an up-to 200mi range.

Re: Gen2 multiple battery size guesses.

Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 9:21 am
by dhanson865
reeler wrote:I think Nissan will do a 30KWh and 40KWh option. This would be across models as a $5K option. They will release this in 2015 to take the mojo out of Tesla's Model C. They might even claim an up-to 200mi range.
Tesla Model C won't be out for 6+ years, maybe you meant Model E?

quick refresher on Tesla model names

Roadster = old nearly prototype design
Model S = current luxury sedan
Model X = soon to be released SUV (2014 release?)
Model E = to be released later lower cost sedan (2015 or 2016 release?)
Model Y = rumored crossover (2017 release?)

model C doesn't show up in even the rumored timelines until 2020 or later (see http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthre ... l-Forum%29" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; for one such timeline)

Re: Gen2 multiple battery size guesses.

Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 9:37 am
by smkettner
No guess on size but IMO the longer range will far outsell the short range model.

Re: Gen2 multiple battery size guesses.

Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 9:47 am
by TonyWilliams
smkettner wrote:No guess on size but IMO the longer range will far outsell the short range model.
Which is why the very simple electrically 24, 36 and 48 kWh sizes suggested earlier. I'd buy a 48 for 150-200 mile range (sound earily familiar to brand T?).

That's with current cells. It's merely a packaging problem, since the 48 kWh version is literally a double size battery.

So, I suspect a big corporation will generally go with the conservative (to them) answer and use the new 30% greater density cells in exactly the same 48 module layout. Then, they will continue to offer the existing cheaper chemistry 24 kWh battery.

For 2017, with the launch of Tesla Model E, they have to get to a 36 - 48 battery size option.

Re: Gen2 multiple battery size guesses.

Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:28 am
by DanCar
TonyWilliams wrote:... use the new 30% greater density cells ...
Would be interested in a link to that if one is available.

Re: Gen2 multiple battery size guesses.

Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:31 am
by evnow
My guess would be a 30 or 36 kWh battery along with the current 24 kWh.

30 kWh would allow them to say 100 mile EPA range - and 36 would be a 125 mile EPA range.

By the time Model E comes along, they would definitely try to put out at least a 150 mile range car and a discount to Model E.

Re: Gen2 multiple battery size guesses.

Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 12:01 pm
by reeler
evnow wrote:By the time Model E comes along, they would definitely try to put out at least a 150 mile range car and a discount to Model E.
I agree that Nissan will have something that can compete with the Model E in this model revision or the room/technology to expand the battery without changing the form factor. Maybe a little less range for a little less money.

If Nissan is forward thinking, it will be the same range as Tesla's announcement for the same or less money. If Nissan keeps the battery size the same and reacts after Tesla releases there's, I think there will be some happy Tesla shareholders.