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Re: California only edition LEAF to compete w/compliance car

Posted: Sun Jun 02, 2013 10:43 pm
by RonDawg
evnow wrote:
adric22 wrote:I'm not sure that Nissan can ever compete with these compliance cars. After all, Nissan is trying to sell the Leaf for a profit and compliance cars are most likely not profitable.
Nissan doesn't have to compete with compliance cars that sell in hundreds. Only when they seriously start eating into Leaf sales would they worry.
My point exactly. Who cares if Honda sells out all 1100 Fit EVs overnight with their new lease pricing? That's what, 2 weeks worth of Leaf sales?

IMHO Nissan has more to worry about from Elon Musk's recent announcement of his intent to outLeaf the Leaf in the next few years than from a manufacturer who only does just enough to stay CARB legal and nothing more. That's despite my doubts about Musk being able to pull that off in such a short time frame.

Re: California only edition LEAF to compete w/compliance car

Posted: Sun Jun 02, 2013 10:52 pm
by leafedbehind
RonDawg wrote:
evnow wrote:
adric22 wrote:I'm not sure that Nissan can ever compete with these compliance cars. After all, Nissan is trying to sell the Leaf for a profit and compliance cars are most likely not profitable.
Nissan doesn't have to compete with compliance cars that sell in hundreds. Only when they seriously start eating into Leaf sales would they worry.
My point exactly. Who cares if Honda sells out all 1100 Fit EVs overnight with their new lease pricing? That's what, 2 weeks worth of Leaf sales?

IMHO Nissan has more to worry about from Elon Musk's recent announcement of his intent to outLeaf the Leaf in the next few years than from a manufacturer who only does just enough to stay CARB legal and nothing more. That's despite my doubts about Musk being able to pull that off in such a short time frame.
It's been said before, but I really think that Tesla is no threat to the LEAF for many, many years. Even if they manage to come out with a gen-III "3-series killer" within the next 3-4 years, we're still talking $30-35K after tax breaks, not $18K. I think Tesla is having the opposite effect -- a halo effect for the LEAF. Lending credibility to EVs and encouraging people to take a look at the EV market, because Tesla makes it "cool". Then they look at the prices, evaluate their true needs, and end up with a LEAF at a lease price that is practically paid for by the gas savings in their commuter car. I think it is a classic example of two competitors benefiting from each other by legitimizing a new market at both ends of the price spectrum, rather than fighting over a bounded market. They are so far apart on price that Nissan could go up a wrung or two, and Tesla down a rung or two, and still not clobber each other. Plenty of room for both for a long, long time. IMHO.

Re: California only edition LEAF - "COMPLIANCE PLUS(TM)"

Posted: Sun Jun 02, 2013 10:57 pm
by RonDawg
leafedbehind wrote:I think the Honda Fit EV is much better than it needs to be for a "compliance car". In many ways, it is better than the LEAF. I don't think Honda really wants to stay on the sidelines of the EV revolution. I have to think (hope!) they have something up their sleeves to put out in a couple years as full-on competition for the LEAF. They lost the hybrid market to Toyota. I'm guessing their executives don't want to lose the EV market to Nissan. If they cave, it won't be because they lack the know-how or the technology.
Honda seems to be betting the future on hydrogen fuel cell technology. Right now the only thing holding them back from their current effort* is the lack of infrastructure, and that is supposedly changing soon.

*Southern Californians who live or work in certain areas can lease the FCX Clarity (which resembles an oversized gen II Insight) for the low, low price of $599 per month.

Re: California only edition LEAF - "COMPLIANCE PLUS(TM)"

Posted: Sun Jun 02, 2013 11:24 pm
by planet4ever
leafedbehind wrote:I think the Honda Fit EV is much better than it needs to be for a "compliance car". In many ways, it is better than the LEAF. I don't think Honda really wants to stay on the sidelines of the EV revolution. I have to think (hope!) they have something up their sleeves to put out in a couple years as full-on competition for the LEAF. They lost the hybrid market to Toyota. I'm guessing their executives don't want to lose the EV market to Nissan.
As with any EV right now, I would lease rather than buy, because of long-term battery concerns and the rapid changes in technology. But I have to admit it really, REALLY, bothers me that Honda will not let you buy the car. It's the old EV-1 specter. If they change that I will be more likely to believe it's not just an compliance car.

Ray

Re: California only edition LEAF - "COMPLIANCE PLUS(TM)"

Posted: Sun Jun 02, 2013 11:41 pm
by TonyWilliams
RonDawg wrote: Honda seems to be betting the future on hydrogen fuel cell technology. Right now the only thing holding them back from their current effort* is the lack of infrastructure, and that is supposedly changing soon.

*Southern Californians who live or work in certain areas can lease the FCX Clarity (which resembles an oversized gen II Insight) for the low, low price of $599 per month.
Toyota, too. Not because they think they'll sell H2 cars to a farmer in Iowa, but because that will be their 2015-2017 CARB-ZEV compliance car.

Re: California only edition LEAF - "COMPLIANCE PLUS(TM)"

Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2013 12:05 am
by leafedbehind
RonDawg wrote:
leafedbehind wrote:I think the Honda Fit EV is much better than it needs to be for a "compliance car". In many ways, it is better than the LEAF. I don't think Honda really wants to stay on the sidelines of the EV revolution. I have to think (hope!) they have something up their sleeves to put out in a couple years as full-on competition for the LEAF. They lost the hybrid market to Toyota. I'm guessing their executives don't want to lose the EV market to Nissan. If they cave, it won't be because they lack the know-how or the technology.
Honda seems to be betting the future on hydrogen fuel cell technology.
I am hoping the success of the Model S and LEAF S are starting to change this stance at Honda.

Re: California only edition LEAF to compete w/compliance car

Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2013 12:22 am
by DaveEV
leafedbehind wrote:It's been said before, but I really think that Tesla is no threat to the LEAF for many, many years. Even if they manage to come out with a gen-III "3-series killer" within the next 3-4 years, we're still talking $30-35K after tax breaks, not $18K.
Yep - in 3-4 years Nissan should hopefully be well into Gen 2.5 LEAF and be down in to the low-mid $20k for their entry level LEAF before credits/rebates. The challenge will be competing in the mid-upper price of the market... That's one area where Tesla is going to have a huge head start with their SuperCharger network. In 3-4 years the SuperCharger network will be fully built out, so unless Nissan and others join in, they are either going to be stuck on 50 kW CHAdeMO/SAE, or really pressing to get CHAdeMO/SAE up to 100 kW. At least the CHAdeMO plug was designed to handle 100 kW, I think the SAE pin sizes are large enough to handle 100 kW, too.

Re: California only edition LEAF to compete w/compliance car

Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2013 1:22 am
by RonDawg
leafedbehind wrote:It's been said before, but I really think that Tesla is no threat to the LEAF for many, many years. Even if they manage to come out with a gen-III "3-series killer" within the next 3-4 years, we're still talking $30-35K after tax breaks, not $18K.
Oh I agree that Nissan doesn't have to worry about Elon Musk stealing Leaf sales from them for a while, if ever. But if Elon does bring out that $40k, 200 mile range car, I can see that stealing sales from the Infiniti LE.

Re: California only edition LEAF - "COMPLIANCE PLUS(TM)"

Posted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 4:58 am
by veramis
Nissan and Tesla are both waiting on new battery technology, and Nissan believes the nickel magnesium cobalt chemistry they are working on will almost double the range without significantly increasing cost. That could bring the Leaf into 120-140 EPA mile range and if things work out that way they would be competing with the tesla blustar.

Re: California only edition LEAF - "COMPLIANCE PLUS(TM)"

Posted: Thu Jun 06, 2013 8:48 am
by TonyWilliams
veramis wrote:Nissan and Tesla are both waiting on new battery technology, and Nissan believes the nickel magnesium cobalt chemistry they are working on will almost double the range without significantly increasing cost. That could bring the Leaf into 120-140 EPA mile range and if things work out that way they would be competing with the tesla blustar.
I'm convinced that Nissan will still offer a cheaper, 75-ish mile (24kWh pack) range car like they do now, in addition to one or two other range options, like 100 miles (32kWh pack) EPA 5 cycle range and 125 EPA (41kWh) when the new battery is released.

But, that's not competing with a 200 mile BlueStar that can use 120kW Superchargers for free nationwide in USA/Canada. For that car, they need an Infiniti branded BlueStar (let's face it folks, somebody is going to cut a deal with Tesla) or Nissan needs one heck of an Infiniti EV. If it doesn't have 200 mile range in four years, I recommend not entering the market.