Tesla's extremely high percentage of the US EV market

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jlsoaz

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 8, 2012
Messages
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Location
Southern Arizona, USA
I have heard somewhere recently that Tesla is now at about 80% of the US EV market (maybe that number was just looking at BEV and not PHEV). Assuming this is about right, one of the things this speaks to, in my opinion, is Nissan's failure to identify (more clearly) and go after (more expeditiously) making revenues and profits, and satisfying customers, in more areas that US BEV buyers wanted. The Ariya hopefully will mark a significant turning point in that failure, and I'm looking forward to it, but holy kershmoly Nissan took a long time to get there, even with Tesla so clearly (and for so long) pointing the way.
 
80% marketshare is about right, but if you want to be really impressed, look at the Tesla fraction of DCFC miles. I look at that number because it is a surrogate for all-purpose EVs
 
jlsoaz said:
I have heard somewhere recently that Tesla is now at about 80% of the US EV market (maybe that number was just looking at BEV and not PHEV). Assuming this is about right, one of the things this speaks to, in my opinion, is Nissan's failure to identify (more clearly) and go after (more expeditiously) making revenues and profits, and satisfying customers, in more areas that US BEV buyers wanted. The Ariya hopefully will mark a significant turning point in that failure, and I'm looking forward to it, but holy kershmoly Nissan took a long time to get there, even with Tesla so clearly (and for so long) pointing the way.

Well its not just Nissan, it is ALL OTHER automakers, isn't it?

VW is just getting the Id4 on the road, Chevy has its Bolt but not much else, Nissan the Leaf, Toyota... nothing real, Honda nothing, Subaru nothing, Ford just getting the machE on the road, etc etc. Everyone else is way behind. Given the early adoption for Nissan, perhaps it makes it extra bitter that they are now just as far behind as the rest.
 
danrjones said:
Well its not just Nissan, it is ALL OTHER automakers, isn't it?
I wouldn't judge the incumbents too harshly. After all, this forum is chock fool of EV enthusiasts and owners who were giggling over Tesla's presumed immediate demise just a few years ago. If an EV forum is blind, deaf and dumb, why should the incumbents be any smarter ?
 
Tesla is certainly dominating the US market for EVs but that is still a niche market. While (almost) everyone here owns an EV, EVs today make up < 1% of all cars on the road in the US. If you look at only new car sales that number goes up to about 2%. I'd still call that a niche. It's fun to extrapolate from 1% to XX% but the margin of error is likely to be large. Maybe in 20 years 80% of cars on the road will be made by Tesla but I wouldn't bet on it.
 
What i find interesting is how quickly Europe has switched gears, and in the process moved from Teslas and prior to that Leafs to other EVs...even though in most cases, Tesla still has the tech/range/performance lead. I am curious if Tesla sees that as a long term threat, as their stock price is partially based in maintaining the large market share.

Equally interesting is that the Leaf is holding on as the #2 EV in the UK (behind Tesla). Part of that is because its made locally / available, the other part I believe is the rapid expansion of V2G there.
 
DougWantsALeaf said:
I am curious if Tesla sees that as a long term threat, as their stock price is partially based in maintaining the large market share.
Hogwash

The stock price is based on speculative Tesla growth to ~ 2.5 million cars annually by 2025.
The best thing that can happen to Tesla is a rapidly growing EV demand. Currently ~ 100 million cars are sold world-wide annually. If 1/4 of that market turns EV, then Tesla can supply 10% of demand in 2025 if it meets its production targets. If you doubt 25% EV penetration of the car market by 2025 then you have not been paying attention.

As a LEAF person you are used to thinking in hundreds, but the actual scale of the transition is in the tens of millions
 
Tesla has suffered from their own version of sales blindness. By focusing on the performance and range aspects of their vehicles, and failing to produce versions that are comfortable (maybe this is changing with the Y, but the less than stellar build quality is a distraction from that if so) they are limiting the huge Senior/Retired market to those who are physically fit and care more about acceleration and range than about being able to easily get in and out of the damned car, and about being able to operate the controls - with warm hands - without messing with touch screens and menus. They need to produce a 'Model G' (for "Geezer") and they need to do it yesterday.
 
LeftieBiker said:
Tesla has suffered from their own version of sales blindness. By focusing on the performance and range aspects of their vehicles, and failing to produce versions that are comfortable (maybe this is changing with the Y, but the less than stellar build quality is a distraction from that if so) they are limiting the huge Senior/Retired market to those who are physically fit and care more about acceleration and range than about being able to easily get in and out of the damned car, and about being able to operate the controls - with warm hands - without messing with touch screens and menus. They need to produce a 'Model G' (for "Geezer") and they need to do it yesterday.
So long as demand exceeds supply they do not 'need' to do anything.
And while I hope things change, the 'G' generation is not known for being progressive. GM thinks like you do though, so an E-caddy is coming REAL SOON NOW (TM).
 
SageBrush said:
danrjones said:
Well its not just Nissan, it is ALL OTHER automakers, isn't it?
I wouldn't judge the incumbents too harshly. After all, this forum is chock fool of EV enthusiasts and owners who were giggling over Tesla's presumed immediate demise just a few years ago. If an EV forum is blind, deaf and dumb, why should the incumbents be any smarter ?

Yeah I wouldn't count them out. From their perspective it probably makes sense to let Tesla do the heavy lifting, of R&D and creating a market.
 
SageBrush said:
danrjones said:
Well its not just Nissan, it is ALL OTHER automakers, isn't it?
I wouldn't judge the incumbents too harshly. After all, this forum is chock fool of EV enthusiasts and owners who were giggling over Tesla's presumed immediate demise just a few years ago. If an EV forum is blind, deaf and dumb, why should the incumbents be any smarter ?

I have a pre order for a Cyber Truck. But if someone else builds an electric truck with the same range for a cheaper price, and similar specs (6.5' bed for example) then I have no attachment to Tesla one way or another, and will gladly change my order to another vendor.

But do you really think Ford is going to have an EV truck with 500 miles of range for 69k? I don't.
 
danrjones said:
SageBrush said:
danrjones said:
Well its not just Nissan, it is ALL OTHER automakers, isn't it?
I wouldn't judge the incumbents too harshly. After all, this forum is chock fool of EV enthusiasts and owners who were giggling over Tesla's presumed immediate demise just a few years ago. If an EV forum is blind, deaf and dumb, why should the incumbents be any smarter ?

I have a pre order for a Cyber Truck. But if someone else builds an electric truck with the same range for a cheaper price, and similar specs (6.5' bed for example) then I have no attachment to Tesla one way or another, and will gladly change my order to another vendor.

But do you really think Ford is going to have an EV truck with 500 miles of range for 69k? I don't.

Wife has one on order too although I don’t think she’ll see it through. It won’t fit in the garage.

I think the stainless steel body might be important to a bunch of folks.
 
webeleafowners said:
danrjones said:
SageBrush said:
I wouldn't judge the incumbents too harshly. After all, this forum is chock fool of EV enthusiasts and owners who were giggling over Tesla's presumed immediate demise just a few years ago. If an EV forum is blind, deaf and dumb, why should the incumbents be any smarter ?

I have a pre order for a Cyber Truck. But if someone else builds an electric truck with the same range for a cheaper price, and similar specs (6.5' bed for example) then I have no attachment to Tesla one way or another, and will gladly change my order to another vendor.

But do you really think Ford is going to have an EV truck with 500 miles of range for 69k? I don't.

Wife has one on order too although I don’t think she’ll see it through. It won’t fit in the garage.

I think the stainless steel body might be important to a bunch of folks.

Who actually puts a truck in a garage? I don't think my f150 would fit in my garage as it is now, though I've never tried. Where i live everyone parks their trucks outside. YMMV.

I do like the idea of dent and scratch resistant, but some color would be nice. I'm also wondering how HOT it will get in our blazing sun.
And I am hoping third parties immediately build some camper shells, and that the bed cover can be retracted and locked to keep the camper on it. Lots of unknowns but I just don't see any other EV truck meeting the mark. I do like the Rivian, but the bed is too small and the price too high. The F150 I think will start at 80k and my guess is about 250 miles of range with an optional range extender. I suspect Ford is going to price it at/as their highest trim level. No thanks.
 
danrjones said:
I do like the idea of dent and scratch resistant, but some color would be nice.
There was talk about Tesla offering wraps for color; if Tesla doesn't, I'm sure it will be an aftermarket thing.
 
jlv said:
danrjones said:
I do like the idea of dent and scratch resistant, but some color would be nice.
There was talk about Tesla offering wraps for color; if Tesla doesn't, I'm sure it will be an aftermarket thing.

I hope they do, because I would want to "wrap" that cost into my loan.
 
danrjones said:
jlsoaz said:
I have heard somewhere recently that Tesla is now at about 80% of the US EV market (maybe that number was just looking at BEV and not PHEV). Assuming this is about right, one of the things this speaks to, in my opinion, is Nissan's failure to identify (more clearly) and go after (more expeditiously) making revenues and profits, and satisfying customers, in more areas that US BEV buyers wanted. The Ariya hopefully will mark a significant turning point in that failure, and I'm looking forward to it, but holy kershmoly Nissan took a long time to get there, even with Tesla so clearly (and for so long) pointing the way.

Well its not just Nissan, it is ALL OTHER automakers, isn't it?

Sure. However,

- Starting about 12-14 years ago, Nissan seemed to get, somewhat, sort of, that BEVs (if done right) might not be a joke from a profitable business standpoint. But (in my view) they only partially got this, and it was quite frustrating (to some of us) to watch what I regarded as their mistakes even if (or because) those mistakes were arguably not ill-intended. With the other automakers, I thought that those automakers just did not take the BEV business seriously, at the time, but with Nissan it was somewhat different... they seemed (sort of) to want to take the BEV business seriously.
- Less importantly, just on my personal level, it was Nissan that got a huge (for me) amount of my money eight years ago, and so it was Nissan that took too long to listen to me, as their paying customer, and so I'm speaking a bit more directly of/to them. As well, we are in a Leaf discussion area.

Anyway, I do agree strongly that all of the automakers, not just Nissan should look hard at the situation. In my view they look at the Tesla dominance in this market (without any advertising budget that I'm aware!), and the fact that Tesla's sales at least in some segments seem to be supply constrained, and those other automakers should IMO ask if they have miscalculated and should try to join in with actual honest-to-goodness good-looking, long-range, spacious, well-handling, well-supported and with good transparent out-of-warranty component replacement terms, widely-supplied and distributed BEVs.
 
jlsoaz said:
danrjones said:
jlsoaz said:
I have heard somewhere recently that Tesla is now at about 80% of the US EV market (maybe that number was just looking at BEV and not PHEV). Assuming this is about right, one of the things this speaks to, in my opinion, is Nissan's failure to identify (more clearly) and go after (more expeditiously) making revenues and profits, and satisfying customers, in more areas that US BEV buyers wanted. The Ariya hopefully will mark a significant turning point in that failure, and I'm looking forward to it, but holy kershmoly Nissan took a long time to get there, even with Tesla so clearly (and for so long) pointing the way.

Well its not just Nissan, it is ALL OTHER automakers, isn't it?

Sure. However,

- Starting about 12-14 years ago, Nissan seemed to get, somewhat, sort of, that BEVs (if done right) might not be a joke from a profitable business standpoint. But (in my view) they only partially got this, and it was quite frustrating (to some of us) to watch what I regarded as their mistakes even if (or because) those mistakes were arguably not ill-intended. With the other automakers, I thought that those automakers just did not take the BEV business seriously, at the time, but with Nissan it was somewhat different... they seemed (sort of) to want to take the BEV business seriously.
- Less importantly, just on my personal level, it was Nissan that got a huge (for me) amount of my money eight years ago, and so it was Nissan that took too long to listen to me, as their paying customer, and so I'm speaking a bit more directly of/to them. As well, we are in a Leaf discussion area.

Anyway, I do agree strongly that all of the automakers, not just Nissan should look hard at the situation. In my view they look at the Tesla dominance in this market (without any advertising budget that I'm aware!), and the fact that Tesla's sales at least in some segments seem to be supply constrained, and those other automakers should IMO ask if they have miscalculated and should try to join in with actual honest-to-goodness good-looking, long-range, spacious, well-handling, well-supported and with good transparent out-of-warranty component replacement terms, widely-supplied and distributed BEVs.

I fully understand what you mean. When I first joined this site, looking at used Leaf's, someone noted that my location was familiar -> one of the very early Leaf adopters was from the same spot, his 2011 died rapidly in the heat here, Nissan screwed him over, and he left this site swearing to never buy a Nissan again. He got burned. That's the gist of the story that I recall. Luckily my 2018 has held up better in the heat. But yes, I agree, it seemed Nissan was on the right track but yet here we are a decade later and the Leaf still has issues never addressed.

Side note, I've got a dealer appointment tomorrow for tire rotation and inspection, standard stuff. But also a warranty issue. My drivers side door has somehow become mis aligned and thunks on the latch. It still closes, but not the way it should. I've never had that happen in any other vehicle. Probably just bad luck.....
 
danrjones said:
jlv said:
danrjones said:
I do like the idea of dent and scratch resistant, but some color would be nice.
There was talk about Tesla offering wraps for color; if Tesla doesn't, I'm sure it will be an aftermarket thing.

I hope they do, because I would want to "wrap" that cost into my loan.

I refuse, on principal, to EVER wrap my EV in plastic. What a revolting idea
 
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