golfcart
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bolt and volt opportunity?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 2:03 pm

I was reading that Chevy (GM) hit 200k EV sales this quarter. If I understand the phase out properly there should be a $7500 credit until the end of Q1 2019, then a $3750 credit through the end of Q2. I think that makes this a good time to buy a Bolt or Volt since all of their existing stock is set to lose quite a bit of value in the next 6 months as these credits expire. What do y'all think?
2018 SV
Build Date: 2/18
Date in Service: 3/19

theothertom
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Delivery Date: 19 Sep 2018

Re: bolt and volt opportunity?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:08 pm

Well, maybe a good time to buy a Volt since they aren't going to make them anymore. Maybe a good time to buy either one while you can still get the full credit. I'm not sure what you mean by loss of value....

golfcart
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Re: bolt and volt opportunity?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 4:33 pm

theothertom wrote: I'm not sure what you mean by loss of value....
I mean than the federal tax credit effectively reduces the he net cost of the vehicle.

If it is a lease then the manufacturer can claim $7500 and pass that savings on to the consumer in the form of reduced payments and a lower residual value.

If it is a purchase them the consumer can reduce their taxes by $7500 when they file the next year.

Once the tax credit goes away the net cost to the consumer increases putting both the Bolt and Volt at a higher price point than a comparable vehicle from their competitors. They will have to lower the price to complete.

So it is in the interest of Chevy to sell/lease those cars before the credit expires because they will make more money while the purchase is still being subsidized by the federal government.

Or put simply, It is unlikely someone would pay $37000 for a Bolt with no tax credit when they could buy a comparable Kona or Leaf eplus for the same price and get a $7500 credit. So I suspect they will have to lower their prices one the credit expires to a level that keeps them competitive with the net cost of those other vehicles that still get the credit. Given that scenario they're better off selling now at a discount that is smaller than the potential future loss after the credit expires.

That's my opinion anyways I could be wrong.
2018 SV
Build Date: 2/18
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cwerdna
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Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: bolt and volt opportunity?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:30 pm

golfcart wrote: Or put simply, It is unlikely someone would pay $37000 for a Bolt with no tax credit when they could buy a comparable Kona or Leaf eplus for the same price and get a $7500 credit. So I suspect they will have to lower their prices one the credit expires to a level that keeps them competitive with the net cost of those other vehicles that still get the credit.
LOL re: the Kona. Have you seen the sales of the Ioniq EV in the US? It’s virtually vaporware and seems to be only a So Cal car. See https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Kona EV ends up in the same boat, for whatever reason. Since you're not in CA, try getting an Ioniq EV. :)

The Volt case won’t matter for too long. It ends in production in (IIRC) March 2019.

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium (lease over)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

GRA
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Re: bolt and volt opportunity?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:49 pm

golfcart wrote:I was reading that Chevy (GM) hit 200k EV sales this quarter. If I understand the phase out properly there should be a $7500 credit until the end of Q1 2019, then a $3750 credit through the end of Q2. <snip>
End of Q3, not Q2. Q4/2020 Q1 it will be $1,875, then it's gone.

Re the Kona and it's Korean siblings, I expect it, the Niro and Soul will all be much more widely available than the Ionic, as they're more desirable body types with much better specs, and the traveling provision no longer applies so they have to be sold outside of CA in the CARB states at least.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

golfcart
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Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2016 6:08 am
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Re: bolt and volt opportunity?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:02 pm

GRA wrote: End of Q3, not Q2. Q4/2020 Q1 it will be $1,875, then it's gone.
Ah, thanks for the correction. I knew it phased out some way over the next year.

My overall point still remains though, I think March 2019 will have some deals on both cars. Chevy should be smart enough to try and get all the federal government dollars they can.
2018 SV
Build Date: 2/18
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golfcart
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Re: bolt and volt opportunity?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:05 pm

cwerdna wrote: The Volt case won’t matter for too long. It ends in production in (IIRC) March 2019.
It'll matter as long as they have them on the lots. The dealer by my house has 4 2018s still so who knows how long the last 2019s will take to unload if they don't sell them before the credit tapers off or expires.
2018 SV
Build Date: 2/18
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theothertom
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Re: bolt and volt opportunity?

Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:24 pm

golfcart wrote: If it is a lease then the manufacturer can claim $7500 and pass that savings on to the consumer in the form of reduced payments and a lower residual value.
I hear you but I don't think Chevy passes along the tax credit to the lessee. BMW and Nissan (I think) do, but not Chevy. So for a leased car, probably no difference. I've always thought EV's are overpriced. For example, Kia Soul ICE is about $10K less than the Soul EV. That difference is way to big IMO. Of course, the $7500 tax credit softens that somewhat for the consumer. Perhaps the car manufacturers increased their prices on EV's so, in effect, they could get the government money. IF that's true, then prices should drop after the tax credit expires. Or maybe prices will drop because of manufacturing efficiencies. Or maybe they won't drop at all. Time will tell.

golfcart
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Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2016 6:08 am
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Re: bolt and volt opportunity?

Fri Dec 14, 2018 5:26 am

theothertom wrote: I hear you but I don't think Chevy passes along the tax credit to the lessee. BMW and Nissan (I think) do, but not Chevy. So for a leased car, probably no difference.


Doesn't it have to make a difference though? Whether they pass it on directly or it is just somewhere in the calculations it has to matter that on March 31st they will get $7500 from the federal government and on April 1st they will only get $3750 from the federal government. They would be better off leasing it for $34000 on march 31st with a $7500 credit than for $37000 on April 1st with a $3750 credit.
theothertom wrote: I've always thought EV's are overpriced. For example, Kia Soul ICE is about $10K less than the Soul EV. That difference is way to big IMO. Of course, the $7500 tax credit softens that somewhat for the consumer. Perhaps the car manufacturers increased their prices on EV's so, in effect, they could get the government money. IF that's true, then prices should drop after the tax credit expires. Or maybe prices will drop because of manufacturing efficiencies. Or maybe they won't drop at all. Time will tell.
I agree that MSRP is definitely overpriced compared to what you get. The only real advantages are the smooth quiet ride, low maintenance, cheap fuel cost, and environmental benefits if that is important to you. You'd have to be either an avid "new tech" person, EV lover, or an environmentalist to think those things are worth $10k more for the same car (or net $2500 more with the full tax credit). I don't know many people, aside from very early adopters, who paid MSRP for their leaf, volt, or bolt though. Most are leased and the ones that are purchased tend to be late in the year and at pretty good discounts by upper middle class folks that get the full credit. I got $10k off MSRP when I bought my 2015 Leaf and many others get great deals too. Also, many of the states with a large number of sales offer large tax credits as well (Colorado, California, Massachusetts) making the net cost to the consumer cheaper than a comparable ICE vehicle. HOV privileges, special parking, and free charging make it even better.

The only reason I am even speculating about the Volt and Bolt deals is that my leaf just lost its first bar (43,000 miles) and my winter commute is getting pretty tight. I don't really mind bundling up and just using the heated seat/steering wheel but by next year I suspect I won't be able to get to work and back when it is below 40 degrees. Plus I hate having such a small margin for error. What if there is an accident and I get stuck on the highway for a while? It just seems like a bad idea to have so little cushion.

I was gonna wait for the eplus or see if this Fenix battery swap thing pans out but if I could get a Bolt cheap that already does what the eplus is supposed to do then I might consider it. I've even considered a Volt since our local dealer does free oil changes for life and warranties the engines for life if you buy your car there. I have a 52 mile round trip commute and could do 90% of my driving in pure EV mode on the Volt.

Like you said, we'll just have to see how it shakes out. Hopefully they release the eplus specs soon so that I can have an idea of what it will cost and what it will do. They might also offer some deep discounts on the 2018 Leaf once the eplus is released so that is an option too. But if there are still Bolts/Volts on the lot the last week of March 2019 I believe that'd be a great time to get a deal on one. The sales managers at the dealership know whats up... they don't want to leave that government subsidy on the table.
2018 SV
Build Date: 2/18
Date in Service: 3/19

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