DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 15145
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Nov 2019
Leaf Number: 319862
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:16 am

iPlug wrote:
tattoogunman wrote:
iPlug wrote:Nearly all manufactures will sell vehicles near MSRP for the first few months until pent-up demand abates. Then dealer and manufacturer incentives are commonly rolled out. That was certainly the case of the first generation of Leaf, then Nissan dealers were selling it for thousands below MRSP for the last few years (as threads here verify). In California, the most popular plug-in state, we also have $7,500 federal tax credit + $2,500 state refund.

Indeed, depreciation on BEVs, especially the Leaf, has been bad. But the relative percent is much less scary after taking these $10-15k+ discounts into account.

Tesla continues to only sell at MSRP because they can. That is a good problem to have.
But it's also assuming those discounts are available. Me personally, I don't like using tax credits as a defacto crutch to buying these vehicles. Not everyone is entitled to the tax credit at the end of the year and even if you are, if you don't immediately write your lien holder a check for $7500, you still paid full price for whatever EV you bought. Not every state has rebates either (like here in Texas). If those credits were all immediately taken off the purchase price at time of purchase, I wouldn't have such a huge problem with them. Those same credits will also be expiring for many in the not so distant future, so that's another reason why I don't like taking them into account. Heck, I found my first used 2017 Bolt for sale locally for $29K already - it's a base model car and if you add that $7500 credit back in, you're at about what the car's MSRP was. I also say all of this as a poor bloke, so don't get me wrong and I cannot afford any of the current crop of EVs at their new car prices.
Not really an assumption. What evidence is there that most new Leaf buyers can’t take most or all of the $7500 federal tax credit? That is, ones who actually buy the vehicle. If you have a source, please provide.

Sure there are folks who truly don’t have the income to qualify for the full credit. But they don’t count if they didn’t buy the vehicle any more than I don’t count for not having bought a Lamborghini. But it’s baked into the lease regardless of one’s income and many lease BEVs. In fact, current gen 2 Leaf leases reflect at least $7500 off as Nissan assumes the credit.

Most Leafs historically have been sold in States like California with similar rebates. Colorado, for example is more generous.

Don’t take my word on it, look at the prices paid thread. Last year was ridiculous with clearing out inventory and some folks got a new Leaf for as little as $11k. ~$10-15k off was more typical for most of the gen 1 Leaf lifecycle for actual purchase and lease.
The inability to get full credit is one of the main reasons, LEAFs are "primarily" leased. There are some who lease only because they know the tech is still in the stage of rapid evolution but the ideology that only the very well to do buy EVs is the very thing that Nissan is addressing.

I lease because I don't qualify for the full credit and Nissan handles leases in a way that allows me to get that full credit.
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 14,342.8 mi, 93.16% SOH
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powersurge
Posts: 1743
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2015 10:24 am
Delivery Date: 06 Dec 2014
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:49 am

This topic was to talk about comparing two cars.... No one is doing this....

I don't care who can't get the total tax rebate (that's their problem), I don't care what people think about the car's depreciation, AND I don't care what they think of the Leaf's MSRP.

If you bought one, then all that is ancient history.... I do agree that we should not compare Nissan with Tesla. They are two different animals. Nissan is producing buyable cars, and Tesla is an high priced experiment that may not be in existence in 5-10 years....

I think that the 18 LeAF is a great improvement, and will get better as it approaches the specs of the BOLT. I really do not have any trust that GM will continue with the Bolt. They do not have an EV friendly track record....

SageBrush
Posts: 5375
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:16 am

powersurge wrote:...we should not compare Nissan with Tesla. They are two different animals. Nissan is producing buyable cars, and Tesla is an high priced experiment
Look at the table again. Start from the first row.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

iPlug
Posts: 459
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2016 6:47 pm
Delivery Date: 25 Apr 2016
Location: Rocklin, CA

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:17 am

It's hard to say if the Leaf and Model 3 are being cross shopped. I suspect they are, but also have no robust evidence. We would probably need some quality survey data to be sure. But there are a heck of a lot of pre-orders for the Model 3, much more than one would expect for simply the well to do market. So this is a very coveted car and the price is much more in reach for a broader part of the population than Tesla's previous options.

The Model 3 does appeal more to the luxury minded, but that does not mean its out of reach for prospective Leaf owners/lessees. Available information strongly suggests one can only get the $35k Model 3 if one only likes the color black in the base model and with few exceptions, one can only get it with the $7500 federal tax credit to get it under $30k if one is a Tesla employee or former Tesla owner (in California?). Whereas for most of the Leaf's years on sale it should be able to be easily had for under $30k after incentives, even after government incentives expire as there will likely be strong manufacturing incentives again by that time.

So even though there will be a real price difference of at least thousands between the Leaf and base Model 3, that doesn't rule out cross shopping. Take the iPhone - There are a lot of folks with these $600-1200 devices who buy a new one every 2-3 years. Joe $200k+ income a year can easily afford this. The more common Joe $50k a year can make room in the budget for this, not a good idea perhaps, but that does not stop more common Joe. He may look at the better priced value products, but many a Joe wants the more expensive coveted item and that's what he's gonna get.
'19 Model 3 SR+, '19 Leaf SV, '12 Plug-in Prius (sold 3/19), '16 Leaf SV (prior lease), 11.43kW Solar PV (16MWh/yr prod.), 20.5 SEER/13.0 HSPF ducted air-source HP, 3.70 UEF HPWH, Induction Cooktop, Variable Speed Pool Pump, Battery powered yard tools

tattoogunman
Posts: 211
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:17 pm
Delivery Date: 08 Jun 2016
Location: Plano, Texas

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:58 am

iPlug wrote:
tattoogunman wrote:
iPlug wrote:Nearly all manufactures will sell vehicles near MSRP for the first few months until pent-up demand abates. Then dealer and manufacturer incentives are commonly rolled out. That was certainly the case of the first generation of Leaf, then Nissan dealers were selling it for thousands below MRSP for the last few years (as threads here verify). In California, the most popular plug-in state, we also have $7,500 federal tax credit + $2,500 state refund.

Indeed, depreciation on BEVs, especially the Leaf, has been bad. But the relative percent is much less scary after taking these $10-15k+ discounts into account.

Tesla continues to only sell at MSRP because they can. That is a good problem to have.
But it's also assuming those discounts are available. Me personally, I don't like using tax credits as a defacto crutch to buying these vehicles. Not everyone is entitled to the tax credit at the end of the year and even if you are, if you don't immediately write your lien holder a check for $7500, you still paid full price for whatever EV you bought. Not every state has rebates either (like here in Texas). If those credits were all immediately taken off the purchase price at time of purchase, I wouldn't have such a huge problem with them. Those same credits will also be expiring for many in the not so distant future, so that's another reason why I don't like taking them into account. Heck, I found my first used 2017 Bolt for sale locally for $29K already - it's a base model car and if you add that $7500 credit back in, you're at about what the car's MSRP was. I also say all of this as a poor bloke, so don't get me wrong and I cannot afford any of the current crop of EVs at their new car prices.
Not really an assumption. What evidence is there that most new Leaf buyers can’t take most or all of the $7500 federal tax credit? That is, ones who actually buy the vehicle. If you have a source, please provide.

Sure there are folks who truly don’t have the income to qualify for the full credit. But they don’t count if they didn’t buy the vehicle any more than I don’t count for not having bought a Lamborghini. But it’s baked into the lease regardless of one’s income and many lease BEVs. In fact, current gen 2 Leaf leases reflect at least $7500 off as Nissan assumes the credit.

Most Leafs historically have been sold in States like California with similar rebates. Colorado, for example is more generous.

Don’t take my word on it, look at the prices paid thread. Last year was ridiculous with clearing out inventory and some folks got a new Leaf for as little as $11k. ~$10-15k off was more typical for most of the gen 1 Leaf lifecycle for actual purchase and lease.
No direct source per se, just the feedback I get from many of the people I've talked to over the years in person, online, etc. Overwhelmingly, most of them have told me that they would not have bought an EV if the credits had not been available with the exception being the people I know with a Tesla (and yes, that implies that those who can afford to buy a Tesla are probably less concerned about $7500 than someone looking at a Leaf, Bolt, etc.).

For me personally, I am in a low income category and cannot afford any of the current crop of EVs at their new prices. As much as I like the Leaf, it is not a $30K plus car in my opinion. Used they are an absolute bargain, but when I have these discussions, it is with the assumption that we're talking new prices and not used.

tattoogunman
Posts: 211
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:17 pm
Delivery Date: 08 Jun 2016
Location: Plano, Texas

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:03 am

powersurge wrote:This topic was to talk about comparing two cars.... No one is doing this....

I don't care who can't get the total tax rebate (that's their problem), I don't care what people think about the car's depreciation, AND I don't care what they think of the Leaf's MSRP.

If you bought one, then all that is ancient history.... I do agree that we should not compare Nissan with Tesla. They are two different animals. Nissan is producing buyable cars, and Tesla is an high priced experiment that may not be in existence in 5-10 years....

I think that the 18 LeAF is a great improvement, and will get better as it approaches the specs of the BOLT. I really do not have any trust that GM will continue with the Bolt. They do not have an EV friendly track record....
Agreed and it's something I've said before - every time I see an article about an EV, Tesla is immediately mentioned in the next sentence and it's not realistic. About the only EV on the market that I think can be realistically compared to the Model 3 is the Bolt - similar equipment, similar price, similar performance, similar range, etc. and those are valid comparisons. The Leaf really cannot compete to either other than being in the similar price bracket in my opinion. This is why, purely in my opinion, comparing a Leaf to the Model 3 is pointless in the same way that you would not compare a Corolla to a BMW 3 series.

iPlug
Posts: 459
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2016 6:47 pm
Delivery Date: 25 Apr 2016
Location: Rocklin, CA

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:48 am

tattoogunman wrote:
iPlug wrote:
tattoogunman wrote:
But it's also assuming those discounts are available. Me personally, I don't like using tax credits as a defacto crutch to buying these vehicles. Not everyone is entitled to the tax credit at the end of the year and even if you are, if you don't immediately write your lien holder a check for $7500, you still paid full price for whatever EV you bought. Not every state has rebates either (like here in Texas). If those credits were all immediately taken off the purchase price at time of purchase, I wouldn't have such a huge problem with them. Those same credits will also be expiring for many in the not so distant future, so that's another reason why I don't like taking them into account. Heck, I found my first used 2017 Bolt for sale locally for $29K already - it's a base model car and if you add that $7500 credit back in, you're at about what the car's MSRP was. I also say all of this as a poor bloke, so don't get me wrong and I cannot afford any of the current crop of EVs at their new car prices.
Not really an assumption. What evidence is there that most new Leaf buyers can’t take most or all of the $7500 federal tax credit? That is, ones who actually buy the vehicle. If you have a source, please provide.

Sure there are folks who truly don’t have the income to qualify for the full credit. But they don’t count if they didn’t buy the vehicle any more than I don’t count for not having bought a Lamborghini. But it’s baked into the lease regardless of one’s income and many lease BEVs. In fact, current gen 2 Leaf leases reflect at least $7500 off as Nissan assumes the credit.

Most Leafs historically have been sold in States like California with similar rebates. Colorado, for example is more generous.

Don’t take my word on it, look at the prices paid thread. Last year was ridiculous with clearing out inventory and some folks got a new Leaf for as little as $11k. ~$10-15k off was more typical for most of the gen 1 Leaf lifecycle for actual purchase and lease.
No direct source per se, just the feedback I get from many of the people I've talked to over the years in person, online, etc. Overwhelmingly, most of them have told me that they would not have bought an EV if the credits had not been available with the exception being the people I know with a Tesla (and yes, that implies that those who can afford to buy a Tesla are probably less concerned about $7500 than someone looking at a Leaf, Bolt, etc.).

For me personally, I am in a low income category and cannot afford any of the current crop of EVs at their new prices. As much as I like the Leaf, it is not a $30K plus car in my opinion. Used they are an absolute bargain, but when I have these discussions, it is with the assumption that we're talking new prices and not used.
Interesting. My experience has been the opposite. Every Leaf buyer I know got the $7500 federal credit and every lessee got that applied to their lease. Then $2.5k CA credit and a few thousand in Nissan incentives. N=7.

Did you find your friends and colleagues had a different experience? Most on these threads here seem to be different than your experience as well. Again, only those who acquired the vehicle.

Any incentive is real money not paid, and real incentives of different sorts will still be around every year.
'19 Model 3 SR+, '19 Leaf SV, '12 Plug-in Prius (sold 3/19), '16 Leaf SV (prior lease), 11.43kW Solar PV (16MWh/yr prod.), 20.5 SEER/13.0 HSPF ducted air-source HP, 3.70 UEF HPWH, Induction Cooktop, Variable Speed Pool Pump, Battery powered yard tools

powersurge
Posts: 1743
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2015 10:24 am
Delivery Date: 06 Dec 2014
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:05 am

tattoogunman wrote:
powersurge wrote:This topic was to talk about comparing two cars.... No one is doing this....

I don't care who can't get the total tax rebate (that's their problem), I don't care what people think about the car's depreciation, AND I don't care what they think of the Leaf's MSRP.

If you bought one, then all that is ancient history.... I do agree that we should not compare Nissan with Tesla. They are two different animals. Nissan is producing buyable cars, and Tesla is an high priced experiment that may not be in existence in 5-10 years....

I think that the 18 LeAF is a great improvement, and will get better as it approaches the specs of the BOLT. I really do not have any trust that GM will continue with the Bolt. They do not have an EV friendly track record....
Agreed and it's something I've said before - every time I see an article about an EV, Tesla is immediately mentioned in the next sentence and it's not realistic. About the only EV on the market that I think can be realistically compared to the Model 3 is the Bolt - similar equipment, similar price, similar performance, similar range, etc. and those are valid comparisons. The Leaf really cannot compete to either other than being in the similar price bracket in my opinion. This is why, purely in my opinion, comparing a Leaf to the Model 3 is pointless in the same way that you would not compare a Corolla to a BMW 3 series.
Yes. Considering prices of cars, there is NO WAY that a money-starved company like Tesla will sell a car with those specs for $35K. What per/car profit would they hope to get... How many cars would have to be sold to make a difference in their Billions of debt?

And how on earth will they be able to make them quickly in the numbers enough satisfy the (supposed) demand when they are released? Like giving water to a thirsty mob with a garden hose... Also, I don't know if everyone knows that every part on every Tesla is custom made so no other company can make them. Any electrical part is designed to only work on the car it is associated to it. Any new parts need to only be installed by the dealer. Is the Tesla STILL sounding good to you? Not me.....

Nope, don't cross shop Tesla and Leaf... The Tesla is the 25 year old Supermodel you will never date...

scottf200
Posts: 1845
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2011 9:21 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Feb 2011
Location: In my Volt VIN 01234 <actual>
Contact: Website

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:36 am

SageBrush wrote:I started this table in another thread but I think it has reached a point where I can bring it out to full light. As more information or errors emerge I'll update this OP. Please refrain from quoting the table since I have no way of updating the table in a quote.

Last updated: 1/25/2018, 20:34 MST
Change log:
1/25: Auto Emergency braking added to 'S' and 'SV' models
Nice effort! Thoughts and suggestion on AEB/Auto Emergency Braking is to break this into two line/entries. My recently research into the Volt and Bolt is that they only do up to 37 MPH (Low Speed Auto Emerg Braking) but supposedly the Volt with ACC/Adaptive Cruise Control will do High-Speed AEB. Bolt does not offer ACC that I know of. That seems to be a secret tho as I (nor others in the know) can locate any doc on that. Still roads around Chicagoland even in the suburbs are 40 and 45 MPH so the up to 37 MPH in the Volt/Bolt is not great.

The Model 3 currently just has Slow-Speed Auto Emerg Braking to 50 MPH. Perhaps just like the X/S they are validating the High-Speed Emerg Braking (up to 85 or 90 MPH).

Low-Speed Auto Emerg Braking
High-Speed Auto Emerg Braking

[update]2018 LEAF manual clarify that the AEB is Low-Speed (up to 50 mph -- still better than Bolt and matches Model 3 so far) states:
The radar sensor has some performance limitations. If a stationary vehicle is in the vehicles’s path, the AEB system will not function when the vehicle is driven at speeds over approximately 50 mph (80 km/h).
[/update]
Last edited by scottf200 on Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:55 am, edited 3 times in total.
100K EV miles and 80% EV usage
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iPlug
Posts: 459
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2016 6:47 pm
Delivery Date: 25 Apr 2016
Location: Rocklin, CA

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:46 am

I found this thread interesting for various reasons, including that we will be cross shopping both the Leaf and Model 3 next year.

We have a leased 2016 Leaf SV, leased primarily for two reasons. First, battery tech is changing fast enough that 5-10 years down the road the vehicle would be much more dated than an aging gasser would. Price per battery kWh and vehicle range would also be markedly better. Whereas with an ICE, maybe a few percent better MPG and range was never an issue. Second, the technology was so new and Nissan had a history of premature battery degradation, we did not want to be holding the bag if this happened to us. Well, we have the 30kWh battery and unfortunately it will be replaced under warranty this year due to advanced battery degradation.

Our lease expires next year in April. But I don't kid myself. We could purchase a new Leaf SV then for $32,490 - $7,500 federal tax credit - $2,500 California rebate. If we were to lease, the federal tax credit is calculated into the lease. That's way cheaper than the base Tesla that I won't be able to get with the Federal tax credit. No Nissan incentives right now but there will be later this year. Yes, the federal tax credit will eventually phase out and expire, but Nissan incentives will also grow.

But the Model 3 is simply a better vehicle, better range, better battery longevity, better charging infrastructure, among many reasons. It is significantly more expensive than the MSRP suggests, but we will cross shop them because the BEV market is still pretty small and both vehicles have their merits.
'19 Model 3 SR+, '19 Leaf SV, '12 Plug-in Prius (sold 3/19), '16 Leaf SV (prior lease), 11.43kW Solar PV (16MWh/yr prod.), 20.5 SEER/13.0 HSPF ducted air-source HP, 3.70 UEF HPWH, Induction Cooktop, Variable Speed Pool Pump, Battery powered yard tools

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