SageBrush
Posts: 5375
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:33 am

tattoogunman wrote:
SageBrush wrote:Statistically, most people do not keep their cars anywhere near 15 years, so it's a moot point in my opinion.
Far from moot -- why do you think the LEAF depreciates like a rock ?
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

tattoogunman
Posts: 211
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:17 pm
Delivery Date: 08 Jun 2016
Location: Plano, Texas

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:41 am

SageBrush wrote:
tattoogunman wrote:
SageBrush wrote:Statistically, most people do not keep their cars anywhere near 15 years, so it's a moot point in my opinion.
Far from moot -- why do you think the LEAF depreciates like a rock ?
EVs in general from what I have seen, but yes, the Leaf more so than others.

WetEV
Posts: 4052
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:13 am

SageBrush wrote:Far from moot -- why do you think the LEAF depreciates like a rock ?
About $7500 more than most ICEs. More in some states.

Make sure you start at MSRP as well. The price you can actually buy the car for should not be considered.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

SageBrush
Posts: 5375
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:47 am

WetEV wrote:
SageBrush wrote:Far from moot -- why do you think the LEAF depreciates like a rock ?
About $7500 more than most ICEs. More in some states.
Nah

A $30k new LEAF fetches ~ $6k at auction after lease.
The depreciation then is 1 - (6/(30-7.5) = 0.73 = 73%
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

WetEV
Posts: 4052
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:07 am

SageBrush wrote:A $30k new LEAF fetches ~ $6k at auction after lease.
It is not "make up a fact Friday" today. Got a source, or just blowing FUD?
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

iPlug
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Delivery Date: 25 Apr 2016
Location: Rocklin, CA

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:15 am

Nearly all manufactures will sell vehicles near MSRP for the first few months until pent-up demand abates. Then dealer and manufacturer incentives are commonly rolled out. That was certainly the case of the first generation of Leaf, then Nissan dealers were selling it for thousands below MRSP for the last few years (as threads here verify). In California, the most popular plug-in state, we also have $7,500 federal tax credit + $2,500 state refund.

Indeed, depreciation on BEVs, especially the Leaf, has been bad. But the relative percent is much less scary after taking these $10-15k+ discounts into account.

Tesla continues to only sell at MSRP because they can. That is a good problem to have.
'19 Model 3 SR+, '19 Leaf SV, '12 Plug-in Prius (sold 3/19), '16 Leaf SV (prior lease), 11.43kW Solar PV (16MWh/yr prod.), 20.5 SEER/13.0 HSPF ducted air-source HP, 3.70 UEF HPWH, Induction Cooktop, Variable Speed Pool Pump, Battery powered yard tools

tattoogunman
Posts: 211
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Location: Plano, Texas

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Sun Jan 28, 2018 12:29 pm

iPlug wrote:Nearly all manufactures will sell vehicles near MSRP for the first few months until pent-up demand abates. Then dealer and manufacturer incentives are commonly rolled out. That was certainly the case of the first generation of Leaf, then Nissan dealers were selling it for thousands below MRSP for the last few years (as threads here verify). In California, the most popular plug-in state, we also have $7,500 federal tax credit + $2,500 state refund.

Indeed, depreciation on BEVs, especially the Leaf, has been bad. But the relative percent is much less scary after taking these $10-15k+ discounts into account.

Tesla continues to only sell at MSRP because they can. That is a good problem to have.
But it's also assuming those discounts are available. Me personally, I don't like using tax credits as a defacto crutch to buying these vehicles. Not everyone is entitled to the tax credit at the end of the year and even if you are, if you don't immediately write your lien holder a check for $7500, you still paid full price for whatever EV you bought. Not every state has rebates either (like here in Texas). If those credits were all immediately taken off the purchase price at time of purchase, I wouldn't have such a huge problem with them. Those same credits will also be expiring for many in the not so distant future, so that's another reason why I don't like taking them into account. Heck, I found my first used 2017 Bolt for sale locally for $29K already - it's a base model car and if you add that $7500 credit back in, you're at about what the car's MSRP was. I also say all of this as a poor bloke, so don't get me wrong and I cannot afford any of the current crop of EVs at their new car prices.

alozzy
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Location: Vancouver, BC
Contact: Website

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:59 pm

@tattoogunman Except, that the sticker price isn't anywhere close to the total cost of ownership over the life of the car.

Once reduced maintenance costs and gas savings are factored in, the TOC for an EV is still lower, despite the initial cost difference.

Especially where I live, where we have a carbon tax and gas prices are more than $5 per US gallon.
Vancouver, CA owner of a 2013 Ocean Blue SV + QC, purchased 01/2017 in WA
Zencar 12/20/24/30A L1/L2 portable EVSE
1-1/4" Curt #11396 hitch
After market, DIY LED DRLs
LeafSpy Pro + Konnwei KW902 ELM327 BT OBDII dongle
Loving my first BEV :D

SageBrush
Posts: 5375
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:51 am

WetEV wrote:
SageBrush wrote:A $30k new LEAF fetches ~ $6k at auction after lease.
It is not "make up a fact Friday" today. Got a source, or just blowing FUD?
You are a free citizen with a computer. If you do not want to take my word for it, look it up.

Type Google.com
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

iPlug
Posts: 459
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2016 6:47 pm
Delivery Date: 25 Apr 2016
Location: Rocklin, CA

Re: 2018 LEAF Vs Tesla Model 3 SR: A Comparison Table for the USA

Mon Jan 29, 2018 1:45 am

tattoogunman wrote:
iPlug wrote:Nearly all manufactures will sell vehicles near MSRP for the first few months until pent-up demand abates. Then dealer and manufacturer incentives are commonly rolled out. That was certainly the case of the first generation of Leaf, then Nissan dealers were selling it for thousands below MRSP for the last few years (as threads here verify). In California, the most popular plug-in state, we also have $7,500 federal tax credit + $2,500 state refund.

Indeed, depreciation on BEVs, especially the Leaf, has been bad. But the relative percent is much less scary after taking these $10-15k+ discounts into account.

Tesla continues to only sell at MSRP because they can. That is a good problem to have.
But it's also assuming those discounts are available. Me personally, I don't like using tax credits as a defacto crutch to buying these vehicles. Not everyone is entitled to the tax credit at the end of the year and even if you are, if you don't immediately write your lien holder a check for $7500, you still paid full price for whatever EV you bought. Not every state has rebates either (like here in Texas). If those credits were all immediately taken off the purchase price at time of purchase, I wouldn't have such a huge problem with them. Those same credits will also be expiring for many in the not so distant future, so that's another reason why I don't like taking them into account. Heck, I found my first used 2017 Bolt for sale locally for $29K already - it's a base model car and if you add that $7500 credit back in, you're at about what the car's MSRP was. I also say all of this as a poor bloke, so don't get me wrong and I cannot afford any of the current crop of EVs at their new car prices.
Not really an assumption. What evidence is there that most new Leaf buyers can’t take most or all of the $7500 federal tax credit? That is, ones who actually buy the vehicle. If you have a source, please provide.

Sure there are folks who truly don’t have the income to qualify for the full credit. But they don’t count if they didn’t buy the vehicle any more than I don’t count for not having bought a Lamborghini. But it’s baked into the lease regardless of one’s income and many lease BEVs. In fact, current gen 2 Leaf leases reflect at least $7500 off as Nissan assumes the credit.

Most Leafs historically have been sold in States like California with similar rebates. Colorado, for example is more generous.

Don’t take my word on it, look at the prices paid thread. Last year was ridiculous with clearing out inventory and some folks got a new Leaf for as little as $11k. ~$10-15k off was more typical for most of the gen 1 Leaf lifecycle for actual purchase and lease.
'19 Model 3 SR+, '19 Leaf SV, '12 Plug-in Prius (sold 3/19), '16 Leaf SV (prior lease), 11.43kW Solar PV (16MWh/yr prod.), 20.5 SEER/13.0 HSPF ducted air-source HP, 3.70 UEF HPWH, Induction Cooktop, Variable Speed Pool Pump, Battery powered yard tools

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