DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 14831
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Nov 2019
Leaf Number: 319862
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:35 am

dgpcolorado wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 2:26 pm
DaveinOlyWA wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:21 am
We all know batteries degrade and that starts on day one. Who is the mileage champ still on their original pack?
I know of one car that had the original 85 pack changed out at 197k miles. That's the longest I've heard of for the early battery packs, although there may well be others with more mileage.
So pack failure? Can't imagine degradation had proceeded enough.
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 10,081 mi, 95.03% SOH
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DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 14831
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Nov 2019
Leaf Number: 319862
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:46 am

palmermd wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:34 am
Valdemar wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:42 am
I can't wait to learn about post warranty Tesla resale values. The Leaf situation may end up being not too bad, relatively, after all.

I'm also curious to see what happens after warranties expire. But I'm not sure why you suggest Tesla will be equal or worse than leaf. Leaf values plummeted well before warranties expired. Most Tesla's are doing well with regard to battery which would be the big ticket item to replace. But for sure we will see changes to the resale and we'll likely see some sort of aftermarket refurbishment business start to pop up.
Has anyone actually done the math on resale values? I don't see the LEAF as losing here. I know TWO S85 owners that went to the T3. Purchased for $91k (drove 67,000 miles) and $107K (drove 104,000 miles) sold for $41 and $37k respectively. Value loss on the latter was $9k a year which means you can throw away your LEAF and get a whole new car every 3½ years and be ahead financially.

This is how emerging technology works. I gave away my $400 DVD player (to Goodwill) when I replaced it with my $65 Blu Ray. Soon my $2500 55" Sony will be replaced with something 65" or more for probably less than $400.

Did we ever think that EVs would be different?
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 10,081 mi, 95.03% SOH
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Durandal
Posts: 365
Joined: Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:55 am
Delivery Date: 22 Sep 2016
Leaf Number: 025018
Location: Central Arkansas

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:37 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:35 am
dgpcolorado wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 2:26 pm
DaveinOlyWA wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:21 am
We all know batteries degrade and that starts on day one. Who is the mileage champ still on their original pack?
I know of one car that had the original 85 pack changed out at 197k miles. That's the longest I've heard of for the early battery packs, although there may well be others with more mileage.
So pack failure? Can't imagine degradation had proceeded enough.
Many of the Model S vehicles out there that have had battery replacements have been due to cell/pack failures, not degradation. Some guy hit 1 million kilometers in his Model S, he's had the pack replaced 3 times, taking full advantage of the 8 years unlimited mileage warranties those original cars had. Tesla has learned a lot on increasing the reliability of the packs and drive units in that time. I wouldn't consider a used Model S that's before the year 2015 unless the drive unit has been replaced since 2015, as they had high failure rates. Anything past 2015 looks to be pretty stable on both battery packs and drive units.
Pulled the trigger on going EV on 10/2016 with a 2012 Leaf SL, traded it in and now I'm a very happy Tesla Model 3 owner. Reservations for Tesla Model Y and Cyber Truck.

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 14831
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Nov 2019
Leaf Number: 319862
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:59 am

Durandal wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:37 am
DaveinOlyWA wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:35 am
dgpcolorado wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 2:26 pm
I know of one car that had the original 85 pack changed out at 197k miles. That's the longest I've heard of for the early battery packs, although there may well be others with more mileage.
So pack failure? Can't imagine degradation had proceeded enough.
Many of the Model S vehicles out there that have had battery replacements have been due to cell/pack failures, not degradation. Some guy hit 1 million kilometers in his Model S, he's had the pack replaced 3 times, taking full advantage of the 8 years unlimited mileage warranties those original cars had. Tesla has learned a lot on increasing the reliability of the packs and drive units in that time. I wouldn't consider a used Model S that's before the year 2015 unless the drive unit has been replaced since 2015, as they had high failure rates. Anything past 2015 looks to be pretty stable on both battery packs and drive units.
Yep, I have to say the same applies to all EVs evenly the lowly LEAF. They have all improved. It really shows that it was never battery technology that delayed EVs, it was always propaganda based special interests. I have noticed more and more information verifying that oil companies had been planning fracking for decades but had to wait for the right time to do it. Well, that right time never happened so they had to create some "facts" to hasten the idea along.
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 10,081 mi, 95.03% SOH
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Valdemar
Posts: 2661
Joined: Tue May 10, 2011 10:32 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Sep 2011
Location: Oak Park, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:18 pm

palmermd wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:34 am
Valdemar wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:42 am
I can't wait to learn about post warranty Tesla resale values. The Leaf situation may end up being not too bad, relatively, after all.

I'm also curious to see what happens after warranties expire. But I'm not sure why you suggest Tesla will be equal or worse than leaf. Leaf values plummeted well before warranties expired. Most Tesla's are doing well with regard to battery which would be the big ticket item to replace. But for sure we will see changes to the resale and we'll likely see some sort of aftermarket refurbishment business start to pop up.
I guess it would be just nice to see the myth about good Tesla resale value busted.
'11 SL, totaled
-1CB@33k/21mo, -2CB@53k/33mo, -3CB@68k/41mo, -4CB(41.5AHr)@79k/49mo, -5CB(38.85AHr)@87.5k/54mo
-0CB(66.14AHr)@87.5k/54mo (BBB), -1CB(53.92Ahr)@140k/29mo,
51.1AHr, SOH 80%, 150k miles

9kW Solar

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dgpcolorado
Posts: 3141
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:56 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Dec 2011
Location: The Western Slope, Colorado

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:49 pm

DaveinOlyWA wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:35 am
dgpcolorado wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 2:26 pm
DaveinOlyWA wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:21 am
We all know batteries degrade and that starts on day one. Who is the mileage champ still on their original pack?
I know of one car that had the original 85 pack changed out at 197k miles. That's the longest I've heard of for the early battery packs, although there may well be others with more mileage.
So pack failure? Can't imagine degradation had proceeded enough.
Yes, pack failure (my recollection was that the owner said he was down about 15% at 197k miles, but it has been awhile since I saw the comment). The battery warranty doesn't include normal degradation and I haven't heard of any packs being replaced for degradation.
Blue 2012 SV Dec 2011 to Feb 2016
CPO 2014 Tesla S60 Mar 2016
One car, no ICE, at last!
Tesla Referral Code

User avatar
dgpcolorado
Posts: 3141
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Delivery Date: 15 Dec 2011
Location: The Western Slope, Colorado

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:20 pm

DougWantsALeaf wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:50 pm
What highway range do you get in you 60? 200 miles? (Temperate summer day)
That's a hard question to answer. Depends on variables such as speed, wind and altitude (I get better mileage in Colorado*, Utah and New Mexico than when I go to sea level, for obvious reasons). At about 63 mph I get perhaps 185 to 190 miles. At 80 mph, the speed limit in much of the Intermountain West, perhaps 140 miles, although I haven't measured it, so that's a guess based on trip legs i drive.

My S-60 currently shows about 179 RM (EPA rated miles) at 100%; I believe that the figure when new would have been 208 RM (I bought my car used and have since put 83k miles on it in three and a half years). For most of my driving I do better than the EPA efficiency so my actual range is better than that. For example, I did a 6159 mile road trip to the Midwest in October and averaged 294 Wh/mile, which is a bit better than the EPA par of 300 Wh/mile for my car model. That trip included a lot of high speed freeway driving, no surprise, and was entirely at cool temperatures, mostly 40s but ranging from 30s to a couple of days that got up into the 60s for a few hours.


* For those unfamiliar with my state, the lowest altitude in Colorado is 3315 feet (1010 meters) near the Kansas-Nebraska border, the average is well over 6000 feet (1800 m), and most of the mountain passes are in the 10,000 to 12,000 ft range (3000-3650 m). Thinner air means significantly reduced aerodynamic drag.
Blue 2012 SV Dec 2011 to Feb 2016
CPO 2014 Tesla S60 Mar 2016
One car, no ICE, at last!
Tesla Referral Code

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 14831
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sat Dec 14, 2019 9:03 am

cwerdna wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:59 am
Came across a bitter pill for this person: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... il.176939/.

They had an original 60 kWh S w/8 year/125K mile battery pack (and DU) warranty but they're past 125K miles and Tesla won't cover it. They said "Approx. 18k still owed on loan.
Cost for repairing battery/install $11k "

I haven't read the thread in detail but it's funny how a bunch of people were confused by Elon's original announcement and didn't catch that the 40 and 60 kWh Model S of the time didn't get an infinite mileage but limited by 8 year battery pack and DU warranty.

On the bright side, per kWh, it's a lot better deal than the obscene amount Nissan wants for a 24 kWh pack.

Will be interesting to know if out of DU and battery pack warranty Model S take a big hit/nosedive in resale value. We'll be seeing more and more soon...
Failure eh? So not degradation based? So the cost is entire pack replacement verses replacing failed cells? Sounds like Tesla packs built for the one and done process? TBH; confused as to whether its a repair or pack replacement/
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 10,081 mi, 95.03% SOH
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cwerdna
Posts: 10619
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Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sat Dec 14, 2019 4:52 pm

^^^
I'm pretty sure they're going to install either a new or refurb pack and not repair it. I don't think SCs are equipped to repair packs beyond say a contactor.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-4290037 says he decided to bite the bullet and pay the $11K.

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 14831
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sat Dec 14, 2019 5:40 pm

cwerdna wrote:
Sat Dec 14, 2019 4:52 pm
^^^
I'm pretty sure they're going to install either a new or refurb pack and not repair it. I don't think SCs are equipped to repair packs beyond say a contactor.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-4290037 says he decided to bite the bullet and pay the $11K.
Well refurb pack at original capacity for 11K is quite a good deal really. It will be newer technology so likely to last longer than the original one did.
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 10,081 mi, 95.03% SOH
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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