Zythryn
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:32 am

LTLFTcomposite wrote:Say what you will, he's all in

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/teslas- ... thing.html

Here is the proposal: http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1054948

There is a lot to like about this. Even the rational Tesla detractors should like this as the milestones are based on revenue and profit, not production goals.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt, Leaf & Model S
Current owner of Model 3
http://www.netzeromn.com

hyperionmark
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:02 am

curiously no word from the shorts for a while

lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:49 am

LTLFTcomposite wrote:Say what you will, he's all in

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/teslas- ... thing.html
What a joke! He owns 20% of the stock, so does he really need any salary? He's still highly motivated by the stock price.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 76K miles, 47 Ahrs, 5.0 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=73, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 10.3K miles, SOH 109Ahrs/115Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

hyperionmark
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Location: Nebraska

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:54 am

lorenfb wrote:
LTLFTcomposite wrote:Say what you will, he's all in

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/teslas- ... thing.html
What a joke! He owns 20% of the stock, so does he really need any salary? He's still highly motivated by the stock price.
So how much did you lose of that $1 billion the shorters lost, laurenfb?

EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Jan 23, 2018 4:27 pm

When these fools gone learn.

I am not even saying TSLA won't be worth $40 in two years, but this is not normal stock because the company isn't normal. Other companies have to live by economic realities and Tesla doesn't because musk is the silver bullet and he has the magic sauce. People don't just invest in tesla to try and make money but because they believe in it. They love the company, they want it to succeed. When the stock dips the faithful see it as buying opportunities. Not a great stock to short.

webb14leafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:26 am

cwerdna wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
webb14leafs wrote:
Tesla is on track to EASILY sell over 350,000 cars per year within the next 6-12 months. This is not debatable. We can debate whether it's closer to 6 or 12, but you cannot debate IF it will happen. Well, you CAN, but it would be stupid.
So what! Have you overlooked what the U.S. auto sales TAM (total available market) was for 2017 (17M), and that Tesla
is presently only about 3% of the largest (GM - 3M)? When Tesla becomes profitable and begins to approach GM's volume
or the other two (Ford - 2.6M, Toyota - 2.4M), it will be a noticeable factor in the U.S. automotive sector and be considered viable.
...
And on this note, webb14leafs should note that the largest automakers in the world by volume each produce and sell about 10 million vehicles worldwide per year, each w/billions in profits per year. Look up names like VW Group, GM, Toyota and Nissan-Renault Alliance (including Mitsubishi Motors).

The 350K units/year that Tesla has come nowhere near is what each of 4 names I mentioned produces in under 2 weeks.
I'm well aware of the global auto sales figures for the major manufacturers. I'm also aware of their average profit margins. I'm also aware of the sales figures for Tesla's market competitors. Tesla will turn a profit and DOMINATE their class market within 18 months. Within 2-3 years their sales will likely reach 1 million per year at great profit margins. Does this justify their market cap?? Maybe. Maybe not. My point is that the company isn't going bankrupt and isn't desperate for a suitor.

You have to consider their other products and markets to evaluate their market cap. Ford doesn't make big rigs with big profit margins, or overpriced solar roofs, or energy storage centers (an enormous market on the verge of exploding).

lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:24 am

webb14leafs wrote: Tesla will turn a profit and DOMINATE their class market within 18 months. Within 2-3 years their sales will likely reach 1 million per year at great profit margins.
OK, if you say so?
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 76K miles, 47 Ahrs, 5.0 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=73, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
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edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:05 pm

By all reports, Model 3 production remains a very-slow-motion-train-wreck...
Tesla employees say to expect more Model 3 delays, citing inexperienced workers, manual assembly of batteries

CEO Elon Musk has already had to disappoint eager customers with Model 3 delays due to manufacturing "bottlenecks."...


Tesla's problems with battery production at the company's Gigafactory in Sparks, Nevada, are worse than the company has acknowledged and could cause further delays and quality issues for the new Model 3, according to a number of current and former Tesla employees. These problems include Tesla needing to make some of the batteries by hand and borrowing scores of employees from one of its suppliers to help with this manual assembly, said these people.

Tesla's future as a mass-market car maker hinges on automated production of the Model 3, which more than 400,000 people have already reserved, paying $1,000 refundable fees to do so.

The company has already delayed production, citing problems at the Gigafactory. On November 1, 2017, CEO Elon Musk assured investors in an earnings call that Tesla was making strides to correct its manufacturing issues and get the Model 3 out.

But more than a month later, in mid-December, Tesla was still making its Model 3 batteries partly by hand, according to current engineers and ex-Tesla employees who worked at the Gigafactory in recent months. They say Tesla had to "borrow" scores of employees from Panasonic, which is a partner in the Gigafactory and supplies lithium-ion battery cells, to help with this manual assembly.

Tesla is still not close to mass-producing batteries for the basic $35,000 model of this electric sedan, sources say. These people requested anonymity as they are not authorized by the company to talk to the press...

Two current engineers told CNBC that they are concerned some of the batteries being shipped do not have the minimum gap required between lithium ion cells. These engineers warned that this "touching cells" flaw could cause batteries to short out or, in worse cases, catch fire.

These engineers said they raised the issue internally, but their concerns were shrugged off by managers...
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/25/tesla-e ... known.html

And anecdotal reports lead to the conclusion that model 3's are still being produced and delivered at a trickle...

https://model3ownersclub.com/threads/da ... heet.5678/
no condition is permanent

hyperionmark
Posts: 202
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Delivery Date: 31 Jan 2017
Location: Nebraska

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:21 pm

edatoakrun wrote:By all reports, Model 3 production remains a very-slow-motion-train-wreck...
Tesla employees say to expect more Model 3 delays, citing inexperienced workers, manual assembly of batteries

CEO Elon Musk has already had to disappoint eager customers with Model 3 delays due to manufacturing "bottlenecks."...


Tesla's problems with battery production at the company's Gigafactory in Sparks, Nevada, are worse than the company has acknowledged and could cause further delays and quality issues for the new Model 3, according to a number of current and former Tesla employees. These problems include Tesla needing to make some of the batteries by hand and borrowing scores of employees from one of its suppliers to help with this manual assembly, said these people.

Tesla's future as a mass-market car maker hinges on automated production of the Model 3, which more than 400,000 people have already reserved, paying $1,000 refundable fees to do so.

The company has already delayed production, citing problems at the Gigafactory. On November 1, 2017, CEO Elon Musk assured investors in an earnings call that Tesla was making strides to correct its manufacturing issues and get the Model 3 out.

But more than a month later, in mid-December, Tesla was still making its Model 3 batteries partly by hand, according to current engineers and ex-Tesla employees who worked at the Gigafactory in recent months. They say Tesla had to "borrow" scores of employees from Panasonic, which is a partner in the Gigafactory and supplies lithium-ion battery cells, to help with this manual assembly.

Tesla is still not close to mass-producing batteries for the basic $35,000 model of this electric sedan, sources say. These people requested anonymity as they are not authorized by the company to talk to the press...

Two current engineers told CNBC that they are concerned some of the batteries being shipped do not have the minimum gap required between lithium ion cells. These engineers warned that this "touching cells" flaw could cause batteries to short out or, in worse cases, catch fire.

These engineers said they raised the issue internally, but their concerns were shrugged off by managers...
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/25/tesla-e ... known.html

And anecdotal reports lead to the conclusion that model 3's are still being produced and delivered at a trickle...

https://model3ownersclub.com/threads/da ... heet.5678/
Cool story, bro. How much money have you lost now? I hope a lot since your posts shows you lack any integrity at all. People that play dirty like you don't deserve financial gain as a result.

edatoakrun
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Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:30 pm

Zythryn wrote:
LTLFTcomposite wrote:Say what you will, he's all in

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/teslas- ... thing.html
Here is the proposal: http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1054948

There is a lot to like about this. Even the rational Tesla detractors should like this as the milestones are based on revenue and profit...
Actually, profit is not a requirement for Musk's furture over-compensation, just as it was not in his prior package.

EBITDA margins (and very low ones at that) along with revenue growth are all that would be required for Musk to increase his ownership of TSLA from todays ~22% to ~34% over the contract period.
Tesla: Elon Musk's Compensation Implies Massively Lower Profitability

The Implied Margins Are Amazingly Low...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/413939 ... fitability

So, as long as TSLA can continue to borrow money, and sell more product at below cost, Musk's (undiluted) share of TSLA will increase by billions of dollars, with each tranche.

Of course, the chances of TSLA meeting all those financial goals are zero, but the announcement appears to be timed to distract from what are likely to be further disastrous financial numbers for Q4, soon to be announced:
Elon Musk’s new compensation plan is a Tesla ‘marketing tool’: Morgan Stanley

Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk’s “ambitious” compensation plan is an “aspirational marketing tool” to attract more talent and capital to the Silicon Valley car maker as the competition to build electric and autonomous vehicles intensifies, analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note Tuesday.

Tesla TSLA, -1.96% and Musk have agreed to a 10-year compensation plan in which his money is tied to the company hitting several benchmarks, including Tesla eventually reaching a market capitalization of $650 billion. The company is currently worth around $60 billion in market value. The pay plan must be approved by shareholders.

The “mega cap” milestones are meant to capture “the spirit of the bull market,” the Morgan Stanley analysts said.

Besides its marketing aspect, the new plan may also be about making sure investors are comfortable with Tesla, which has missed some key self-imposed deadlines with the Model 3...

Tesla last month reported fourth-quarter deliveries that were short of market expectations and rolled back Model 3 production targets for a second time.

The company has not yet set a date to report its fourth-quarter results. Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report an adjusted loss of $3.04 a share on sales $3.3 billion. That would compare with an adjusted loss of 69 cents a share on sales of $2.3 billion in the year-ago period...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... 2018-01-23
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