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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jul 27, 2017 2:13 pm

edatoakrun wrote:Wonder if TSLA will reveal data from the “conditional fuel economy label” before or by tomorrow night?

And if so, will it be only for the optional-large-battery RWD versions it has said will be "delivered" tomorrow night, or show data for the entire model 3 range?
Did you not read the article you quoted? I think it pretty clearly said that the figures would not be released for another month, after the first 100 or so deliveries.

Which frankly probably doesn't affect anyone actually reading this (unless there just so happens to be a lucky Tesla employee at the head of the line on here--but somehow I don't think they are going to be all that concerned with the lack of a Moroney sticker anyway.
edatoakrun wrote:And many others seem to be hoping for some relief tomorrow night from model 3 anxiety:
I would certainly characterize deposit-holders as being eager for more details coming out tomorrow or in the coming weeks. I think anxiety is probably somewhat of a misnomer. Of the 3 examples cited, one guy is nervous because Tesla hasn't updated their reservation numbers? Well I feel bad for him, but it doesn't seem like a rational thing to get worried about as a reservation holder. The only possible result for him is that he moves up in line if people canceled ahead of him. Otherwise it's more of a concern for Tesla investors, not Model 3 reservation holders. The second person already canceled 6 months ago, and the third canceled his reservation for reasons not even related to the handover event (and ironically since Musk pulled out of his dealings with Trump, I wonder if that changed his mind--too late of course--about whether to hold a reservation). To be fair if you're going to single out reasons why people have CANCELED their reservations, I think you have to consider the other 350,000+ (or whatever the number actually is) that RESERVED their Model 3's and still hold those reservations. I certainly don't doubt that people have or will drop their reservations as they learn more about the car. Maybe they don't like the screen, or the dashboard, or the option pricing isn't what they thought it would be, or they just put down their $1000 to hold a spot in line without knowing whether they'd like the final result or not (the first 125K or so were put down COMPLETELY sight unseen!) But is it fair to single out cancellations without acknowledging everyone that is keeping their reservations? Particularly since the number of reservations took EVERYONE (even Musk) by surprise?
...Lance

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abasile
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:57 pm

It's a $1000 refundable deposit; it's not like we had to sign over our firstborn child to Tesla! :lol:

Based on what's been revealed to date, as long as the larger battery gives a range that's not too far below 300 miles when new, I think we'll be pleased. We'll have to wait an indeterminate amount of time, but that's been par for the course with new Tesla models!

Also, I for one am very grateful that Musk seemed to do his best to engage with Trump and promote rational thinking. At the same time, I'm happy that he walked away following Trump's nonsensical decision to abandon the Paris Agreement. Surely plenty of other Model 3 reservation holders feel the same way.
2011 LEAF at 71K miles, pre-owned 2012 Tesla S 85 at 98K miles
LEAF battery: 9/12 bars and < 49 Ah (-28% vs. new)
Tesla battery: 250+ miles of range (-5% vs. new)

SageBrush
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jul 27, 2017 6:40 pm

lpickup wrote: Did you not read the article you quoted? I think it pretty clearly said that the figures would not be released for another month, after the first 100 or so deliveries.
I did; now your turn.

The EPA plans to confirm the Model 3 manufacturer numbers so a temp window sticker will be on the first cars from tomorrow. IIRC the EPA only tests around 10% of new cars, but in this case the EPA is taking the unusual step of notifying them ahead of time that they plan to confirm the Tesla provided ratings.
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Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
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-----
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SageBrush
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Thu Jul 27, 2017 6:42 pm

abasile wrote:It's a $1000 refundable deposit; it's not like we had to sign over our firstborn child to Tesla! :lol:

Based on what's been revealed to date, as long as the larger battery gives a range that's not too far below 300 miles when new, I think we'll be pleased. We'll have to wait an indeterminate amount of time, but that's been par for the course with new Tesla models!

Also, I for one am very grateful that Musk seemed to do his best to engage with Trump and promote rational thinking. At the same time, I'm happy that he walked away following Trump's nonsensical decision to abandon the Paris Agreement. Surely plenty of other Model 3 reservation holders feel the same way.
I do, for sure. The person who cancelled a reservation due to Elon's participation in the Gov council must be one of about ... three.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jul 28, 2017 6:14 am

SageBrush wrote:
lpickup wrote: Did you not read the article you quoted? I think it pretty clearly said that the figures would not be released for another month, after the first 100 or so deliveries.
I did; now your turn.

The EPA plans to confirm the Model 3 manufacturer numbers so a temp window sticker will be on the first cars from tomorrow. IIRC the EPA only tests around 10% of new cars, but in this case the EPA is taking the unusual step of notifying them ahead of time that they plan to confirm the Tesla provided ratings.
Well I definitely didn't read it that way. It sounds to me like the conditional sticker will be based on Tesla's own test results and that the EPA will confirm/finalize the results in about a month's time.

But either way, I think it's a giant don't care for the majority of reservation holders and readers here.

The folks who go out of their way to just toss out posts with "news" on Tesla that appears to have a negative slant probably need to get beyond the fact that Tesla is going to do things their own way, and usually for good reason. They are not an established car company that can afford to (or even NEEDS to) build up an inventory of 1000's of cars and distribute to dealers' lots before the first car is sold. Tesla is far more nimble than that and if the way they want to operate is to start with 30 cars, then 100, then 1000 and roll them out to employees first, well that's fine with me. Even if it does take another 3-4 months to start rolling these out to non-Tesla employees (with all the official Moroney stickers and price lists, etc. all well documented), they've still beat the expectations I had when I put my deposit down, which was that it would probably be 1-2Q 2018 before we saw the car. Now that Musk has basically achieved his aggressive goal of July 2017 (even if it is a "soft" launch that doesn't line up with people's general expectation of how a launch should happen), it seems that the naysayers are having to find new ways to cast doubt on Tesla.
...Lance

Deep Blue Metallic 2018 Tesla Model 3 (31849) (delivered: 7/13/18)
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palmermd
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jul 28, 2017 6:54 am

lpickup wrote:
But either way, I think it's a giant don't care for the majority of reservation holders and readers here.

.
yep. march 31 2016 reservation holder here...I don't care!
Michael

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SageBrush
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jul 28, 2017 10:06 am

lpickup wrote: Well I definitely didn't read it that way. It sounds to me like the conditional sticker will be based on Tesla's own test results and that the EPA will confirm/finalize the results in about a month's
This is right. The only difference here is that most cars only have the manufacturer testing that the EPA accepts without further investigation. I thought you were saying that fuel economy numbers will not be available today. That is not the case.

You can count on one hand the numbers of times EPA has revised manufacturer results downward (hello, Ford and Hyundai.)
This all means that the EPA confirmatory testing is the least interesting news surrounding Tesla since the 3/2016 Model 3 reveal, unless you think Tesla tried to cheat on the fuel economy sticker. As an aside, it just occurred to me that Tesla can probably run the EPA tests programatically -- no human driver required. After all, both brakes and acceleration are electronic.

Go Tesla!
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/18: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/18: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
09/20: 54.3 Ahr; 38k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:06 am

There is almost nothing on the Monroney sticker for the Model 3 that I would be interested in anyway, except range.

MPGe efficiency, at the high efficiency levels of EVs, is going to vary widely depending on driving style and local terrain, so it's almost meaningless unless using it to compare to competition (something that the Model 3 doesn't really have--Bolt comes close, but without true 100+kW charging and a reliable nationwide network, for me anyway, it doesn't compare. Annual fuel costs, savings, etc? Again, very dependent on my own situation and easy enough to work out. I mean I guess I could compare it to my LEAF's efficiency/costs, but it's not going to drive a buying decision one way or another. So yeah, it all comes down to the range figure for me, even though for the same reasons of MPGe this will obviously vary (since it is based on the MPGe value anyway!) in my own case. And I do accept that the results are not necessarily final, but I expect them to be close enough to be within the noise.
...Lance

Deep Blue Metallic 2018 Tesla Model 3 (31849) (delivered: 7/13/18)
Coulis Red 2016 SV (312310) (bought: 12/23/16 sold: 7/5/18)
Glacier Pearl 2012 SL (016138) (delivered: 12/9/11; traded in 12/23/16)
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jlv
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:19 am

lpickup wrote:it seems that the naysayers are having to find new ways to cast doubt on Tesla.
Of course, this is nothing new.
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edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:30 pm

lpickup wrote: ..I'm really unsure what the big deal here is. It seems to me like the point is trying to be made that really these aren't production cars because they are going personally to Elon, or board members, or employees, or next, only to people in CA. Fine, whatever...

So really, what's the big deal?...
Well, part of the big deal for TSLA is that the CARB ZEV credits for each 3 it sells in CA may initially have a market value of close to $20,000, bringing the total of government subsidies for each 3 it sells in CA close to the stated list price of ~$35,000.

Of course, if TSLA ever sells close to the number of 3s it has claimed it plans to, the price per credit will decline precipitously, but in the meantime the ZEV credit revenues it receives by counting the trickle of 3 test models it provides to employees as sales will pad the earnings statements (reduce the losses).

Speaking of losses, I doubt the timing of tonights announcement is unrelated to the expected bad news (another large quarterly loss, of close to $300 million..."adjusted") TSLA will have to report in a few days:

Tesla earnings: Will Model 3 live up to the hype?


What quarterly losses? Wall Street to zero in on production timeline

Tesla Inc. is scheduled to report second-quarter results after the market close on Aug. 2.

Wall Street expects another loss for Silicon Valley company, but that is unlikely to matter much. The real burning questions are the ones about the Model 3.

That’s the mass-market sedan at the center of Tesla’s expansion plans, a $35,000 all-electric car the company hopes will smooth its path to becoming a larger car maker.

Tesla has said it would deliver the first handful of Model 3 sedans in July, and Chief Executive Elon Musk confirmed that timeline earlier this month. With a few days remaining in the month, and a stock that has wobbled in recent weeks, all eyes will be on the Model 3.

Here’s what to expect:

Earnings: Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect Tesla to report a loss of $2.38 a share in the second quarter, which would compare with a loss of $2.09 a share in the second quarter of 2016. The company is expected to report an adjusted loss of $1.85 a share in the quarter.

Estimize, a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from sell-side and buy-side analysts as well fund managers, executives, academics, and others, has a consensus per-share loss of $1.78 for Tesla, based on 128 estimates...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla- ... 2017-07-27
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