GetOffYourGas
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jul 05, 2017 8:18 am

lorenfb wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote: Tesla could deliver large quantities of Model 3s, albeit with a slimmer profit margin than Model S/X. The company could become profitable within a year, and your comments will quietly fade into history.
What "slimmer profit margin", they've continually lost money!
The Model S/X are profitable on a per-unit basis. That is, they cost less to build than the revenue generated in a sale. The Model 3 will also be profitable, but less so.

Tesla as a corporation "loses" money because they are investing heavily in the future. But an investment isn't a loss, hence the quotes.
~Brian

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evnow
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jul 05, 2017 8:37 am

scottf200 wrote:Elon Musk tweets July 3, 2017

* Model 3 passed all regulatory requirements for production two weeks ahead of schedule. Expecting to complete SN1 on Friday
* Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec
* Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3s on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500.

Image
If they can actually deliver on this - they would have proved a lot of critics wrong. This looks like about 35k for 2017 - which would all go to employees and CA Tesla owners.
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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:05 am

evnow wrote: If they can actually deliver on this - they would have proved a lot of critics wrong. This looks like about 35k for 2017 - which would all go to employees and CA Tesla owners.
If they can actually deliver 1000 cars in 2017 they will have proved a lot of critics wrong (although the goal posts seem to be constantly changing). On March 31, 2016 if you took a poll I bet even most optimists didn't think a significant number of cars would actually be delivered in 2017, and the naysayers were certainly thinking 2018. Even Elon Musk himself, when he announced the July 2017 target in July 2016 seemed to indicate that it was probably not doable and that it was only a target.

So yes, Tesla deserves a lot of credit to make it to the end of July 2017 and deliver the first 30 vehicles.

Personally I will wait and see what their ramp actually looks like and get a feel for the quality of the build, but yes, this is certainly looking like a victory for Tesla.
...Lance

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SageBrush
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:14 am

lpickup wrote:
evnow wrote: If they can actually deliver on this - they would have proved a lot of critics wrong. This looks like about 35k for 2017 - which would all go to employees and CA Tesla owners.
If they can actually deliver 1000 cars in 2017 they will have proved a lot of critics wrong (although the goal posts seem to be constantly changing). On March 31, 2016 if you took a poll I bet even most optimists didn't think a significant number of cars would actually be delivered in 2017, and the naysayers were certainly thinking 2018. Even Elon Musk himself, when he announced the July 2017 target in July 2016 seemed to indicate that it was probably not doable and that it was only a target.

So yes, Tesla deserves a lot of credit to make it to the end of July 2017 and deliver the first 30 vehicles.

Personally I will wait and see what their ramp actually looks like and get a feel for the quality of the build, but yes, this is certainly looking like a victory for Tesla.
Funny you mention polls ...
About a year ago a poll was put on on TMC asking people which of Tesla or GM would sell more EVs in 2017 (Bolt Vs Model 3.) Bolt won ~ 53% of the votes. And mind, this in a forum that is stuffed to the brim with Tesla advocates.

So there is no doubt that Tesla is on target to exceed expectations in their core constituency and to blow their skeptics out of the water.
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Durandal
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:26 am

I've got quite a bit of money riding on Tesla doing well, and I suspect that they will deliver as many Model 3 vehicles as the Bolt has sold at the end of the year, if not more. I don't believe that GM is trying very hard. I think that Nissan is seriously stepping up their game, especially with ProPilot, etc. They're going to be limited in sales by the range if it's only a 40kWh battery, though. In any case, I'm more than happy to see GM slapped around, no matter who's doing the slapping.

My main questions on Model 3 are speed of production (meaning will I get the tax credit in 2018?) and cost of options. I will likely choose whatever configuration will get me my Model 3 the soonest, big battery, small battery, dual motor, single motor, I don't care. The only question in my mind is will I have to put down another $1,000 deposit today in order to be able to buy a second Model 3 in 2019?
Pulled the trigger on going EV on 10/2016 with a 2012 Leaf SL, traded it in and now I'm a very happy Tesla Model 3 owner. Reservations for Tesla Model Y and Cyber Truck.

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:42 am

evnow wrote:
scottf200 wrote:Elon Musk tweets July 3, 2017

* Model 3 passed all regulatory requirements for production two weeks ahead of schedule. Expecting to complete SN1 on Friday
* Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec
* Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3s on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500.

Image
If they can actually deliver on this - they would have proved a lot of critics wrong. This looks like about 35k for 2017 - which would all go to employees and CA Tesla owners.
Personally I hope it is a very slow rollout. They need to be prepared for any quality issues that would require service center work as that would overwhelm them. OTA fixes are OK and are one of Tesla huge advantges IMO and experience. Of course, I am reading ** that they are prepping for this by planning on a much larger ranger mobile team (they drive to your home or office). Very exciting to see this unfold and how they are pushing the industry which is responding.


** Title: Tesla Adding Mobile Technicians In Preparation For Model 3
http://insideevs.com/tesla-adding-mobil ... n-model-3/
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evnow
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:44 am

Durandal wrote:I've got quite a bit of money riding on Tesla doing well, and I suspect that they will deliver as many Model 3 vehicles as the Bolt has sold at the end of the year, if not more. I don't believe that GM is trying very hard.
It seems to me GM built Volt (and now Bolt) for industry observers, insiders & magazines rather than paying customers. In that sense they are halo vehicles rather than serious market efforts.
I think that Nissan is seriously stepping up their game, especially with ProPilot, etc. They're going to be limited in sales by the range if it's only a 40kWh battery, though.
Funny how times have changed. In 2011, if we had got a 40 kWh Leaf, we would have been ecstatic. Tesla was roundly criticized for offering a crippled 40 kWh model and then dropping it.
My main questions on Model 3 are speed of production (meaning will I get the tax credit in 2018?) and cost of options. I will likely choose whatever configuration will get me my Model 3 the soonest, big battery, small battery, dual motor, single motor, I don't care.
Same here - whatever comes earliest - unless tax credit is already finished.

Here is the updated article on when the tax credits are likely to phase out.

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/07/04/fe ... lear-sort/

Image

So, it seems through Q2 of '18 we'll get tax credit. I'm optimistic that I'll get my Model 3 (west coast, reserved in line) before H2 is over.
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cwerdna
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jul 05, 2017 12:25 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote: Tesla as a corporation "loses" money because they are investing heavily in the future. But an investment isn't a loss, hence the quotes.
They are losing money. What are these investments you speak of that you claim are helping contribute to putting them in the red?

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jul 05, 2017 12:36 pm

Durandal wrote:My main questions on Model 3 are speed of production (meaning will I get the tax credit in 2018?) and cost of options. I will likely choose whatever configuration will get me my Model 3 the soonest, big battery, small battery, dual motor, single motor, I don't care. The only question in my mind is will I have to put down another $1,000 deposit today in order to be able to buy a second Model 3 in 2019?
See the Model 3 Delivery Estimator spreadsheet I linked to in this post: http://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f ... 20#p496561

Based upon my remaining reservation, I'm still looking at Feb 2018 delivery for a 75D, and that is still likely to qualify for the full $7500 tax credit. If I wasn't an owner, it would push my delivery back by a month (March 2018), and I'd still be getting the full tax credit.

(I had 2 reservations, but I canceled one when I bought the S)
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lpickup
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Wed Jul 05, 2017 12:56 pm

cwerdna wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote: Tesla as a corporation "loses" money because they are investing heavily in the future. But an investment isn't a loss, hence the quotes.
They are losing money. What are these investments you speak of that you claim are helping contribute to putting them in the red?
Gigafactory, Supercharger network expansion, Expansion of service centers and mobile ranger fleet, and the creation and expansion of the Model 3 assembly line itself to name a few.

There are also some dubious investments not directly benefiting their car business such as the Solar City acquisition and the Powerpack/Powerwall product lines. I think it's probably somewhat fair to criticize them on those grounds, but again, those aren't directly related to their car business's ability to make a profit on a vehicle anyway, which is what's being debated here.
...Lance

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