EatsShootsandLeafs
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Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 10:59 am
Delivery Date: 24 Aug 2012

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Nov 26, 2019 1:01 pm

GRA wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:07 pm
ABG:
The Toyota Mirai went from yuck to yowza, will it be enough?
If it catches on, it could spur the creation of Toyota's own hydrogen network. That's a big 'if.'
https://www.autoblog.com/2019/11/21/202 ... -hydrogen/


. . . Practically speaking, the new and substantially bigger five-passenger Mirai will be an improvement over the cramped, four-passenger existing model. Toyota is also promising better performance (you can read more about it in our first look). However, according to Mirai chief engineer Yoshikazu Tanaka and senior fuel cell engineer Jackie Birdsall, it's the new design that will really make the biggest difference. They recognize that whatever strides they make in developing and improving hydrogen fuel cell technology won't really matter if no one wants the car or can find a place to refuel it.

The new design is intrinsic to both issues. As Birdsall explained, the hope is that more people will want one, setting off a muted version of what the Tesla Model S achieved for electric cars. More sales and more demand for the car would therefore spur demand for more infrastructure – both in terms of additional stations and urging a change in government regulations to allow hydrogen-powered cars in more places. Throughout the northeast, it's currently illegal to drive hydrogen-powered vehicles on bridges and in tunnels. Neither is going to happen if only a handful of weirdos are driving around in a handful of weird cars – the Honda Clarity included.

This market-based argument is logical enough for how hydrogen fuel-cell technology might catch on, but it still seems like a long shot. The widespread implementation of hydrogen stations might require more drastic measures. Toyota Group Vice President and General Manager Jack Hollis floated the idea that Toyota might build the infrastructure itself, much like Tesla did with its Supercharger network.

"We'd have the ability to do it," he said of the financial capability, but whether it makes sense is another matter entirely. Much like Toyota's delayed approach to offering full-electric models, Hollis is quite clear that the market will dictate further steps in the company's alternative fuel efforts. Perhaps, then, the new sleek and beautiful 2021 Mirai capturing the attention of the public could be the catalyst for Toyota to act, rather than hoping it'll spur municipalities and oil companies to build filling stations. That certainly seems like a more feasible way forward for Toyota's hydrogen plans, but again, it'll come down to that styling. If people don't want the car, it's all a moot point.
That is a very nice looking car. I feel like finally these manufacturers are not insisting that their EVs look hopelessly goofy.

smkettner
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Location: Orange County, CA

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:04 pm

GRA wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:07 pm
ABG:
The Toyota Mirai went from yuck to yowza, will it be enough?
If it catches on, it could spur the creation of Toyota's own hydrogen network. That's a big 'if.'
https://www.autoblog.com/2019/11/21/202 ... -hydrogen/.
Very nice. The EV or H2 econobox is way over rated. The real savings will be the larger SUVs and trucks that are so very popular.
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV
RAV4 traded in for I-Pace Dec 2018

GRA
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:19 pm

IEVS:
Sleek Toyota Mirai FCEV Hits Europe In Production Preview Form
https://insideevs.com/news/393251/toyot ... ed-europe/

Maybe it's the angle of the illustrations, but I find the nose excessively long and not particularly good-looking, and the proportions not all that pleasing. Jaguar does the long nose/short body look really well - Toyota, not so much. It's still a huge improvement over the first gen's looks, although the average five-year old could manage that.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

mux
Posts: 303
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:52 am
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Leaf Number: 6177

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:40 am

It's got a bit of a '90s executive saloon look too it. But more rounded. I'm always shit at predicting whether people like a particular car's shape, they all look similarly toy-like to me because of all the shiny rounded surfaces, but I'm not seeing anything obviously wrong with it.

Then again, I drive a 1st gen Leaf so I have no taste.

GRA
Posts: 12408
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:09 pm

^^^ :lol: :lol: :lol: To me, the nose looks way too much like a snout.

Back on-topic, via IEVS:
A Look Into Used Toyota Mirai Sales
https://insideevs.com/news/393433/toyot ... sed-sales/

I'm as surprised as the author that there have been so many used sales, although the 3 year fuel cards for each "Toyota Certified" used Mirai given to Toyota dealers probably explains it. I can't imagine anyone buying one of these without it - why would anyone choose to buy a used one if they had to pay retail (ca. $16/kg.) H2 prices?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

mux
Posts: 303
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:52 am
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Leaf Number: 6177

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Jan 18, 2020 2:48 am

That's actually not too hard to see - they are INCREDIBLY cheap. The high fuel price makes them practically worthless on the second hand market, but that's actually okay as they are generally written off anyway. I've seen people on Mirai forums quote sub-$10k prices for a used Mirai. For an electric vehicle with those specs and a vehicle that is that young, that's unprecedented almost. I'd buy it just for the fuel cell, just for parts to look at!

Look at the only hit on cars.com right now: https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/deta ... /overview/

35k miles, 3 and a bit years old, new price $68k (nominal, probably never actually paid). For reference, here's a similar-spec, similar-mileage, similar-age Leaf:

https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/deta ... /overview/

And keep in mind that sold new for $29-31k. Literally less than half the price, no fuel included, no service included during that time.

Oilpan4
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Leaf Number: 004270

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Jan 18, 2020 3:22 am

My god retail prices for H2 are $16 per kg?!
Yeah hydrogen is definitely dead on arrival.

I'll just drive a good old electric car.
"THE ABOVE POST CONTAINS MISLEADING AND INACCURATE INFORMATION. PLEASE CONSIDER IT OPINION, NOT FACT". -someone who I offended and is unable to produce the facts in question.

GRA
Posts: 12408
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:40 pm

Oilpan4 wrote:
Sat Jan 18, 2020 3:22 am
My god retail prices for H2 are $16 per kg?!
Yeah hydrogen is definitely dead on arrival.

I'll just drive a good old electric car.

Current average price in CA. Everyone involved with them knows that the H2 price has to come down for them to be practical, which is why so much R&D is being devoted to achieving that. DoE says $7/kg. will be comparable to a gas ICE on a per mile basis (current gas prices), but their goal is $4/kg, which will be cheaper anywhere. It remains to be seen if they can get to either one, and whether or not they can do so before some other tech, whether batteries or whatnot, builds an insurmountable lead. Meanwhile, in countries (Europe) with high fuel taxes FCEVs can be cost-competitive with gas ICEs now, and as some of those countries are starting to designate ZEV zones in urban areas, that gives FCEVs another advantage there.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 12408
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:46 pm

mux wrote:
Sat Jan 18, 2020 2:48 am
That's actually not too hard to see - they are INCREDIBLY cheap. The high fuel price makes them practically worthless on the second hand market, but that's actually okay as they are generally written off anyway. I've seen people on Mirai forums quote sub-$10k prices for a used Mirai. For an electric vehicle with those specs and a vehicle that is that young, that's unprecedented almost. I'd buy it just for the fuel cell, just for parts to look at!

Look at the only hit on cars.com right now: https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/deta ... /overview/

35k miles, 3 and a bit years old, new price $68k (nominal, probably never actually paid). For reference, here's a similar-spec, similar-mileage, similar-age Leaf:

https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/deta ... /overview/

And keep in mind that sold new for $29-31k. Literally less than half the price, no fuel included, no service included during that time.

That price is well below the average price of the used Mirais he was tracking, but what I want to know is how did it wind up in Chicago?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oilpan4
Posts: 1772
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:51 pm
Delivery Date: 10 May 2018
Leaf Number: 004270

Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:03 pm

Right now the petrol chemical industry produces the cheapest hydrogen on earth in large volume.
What scenario takes it from $16 to $7 retail?
It would have to involve almost free and unlimited electricity.
If by some miracle an unlimited source of free terrestrial hydrogen was discovered tomorrow I don't think it could be compressed and distributed for less than $4 per kg.
Even if the natural gas price dropped to $0 it wouldn't even cut the price of hydrogen half.
"THE ABOVE POST CONTAINS MISLEADING AND INACCURATE INFORMATION. PLEASE CONSIDER IT OPINION, NOT FACT". -someone who I offended and is unable to produce the facts in question.

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