Wholesale / auction pricing model for 2013 Leaf's

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tce

New member
Joined
Oct 17, 2015
Messages
3
I took the Manheim auction data generously posted by gemrough (thanks!) in these threads ( http://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20660 , http://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20608 ) and cleaned it up into a machine-usable CSV file. There was only enough data to examine 2013's, so I excluded auction results from other model years. I also excluded data from cars that did not sell at auction. I don't have permission to attach a file, so I'll just post the data into this message at the end, so interested folks can copy-and-paste the data into a CSV file of their own.

I used R (open-source stats package) to generate a multiple linear regression model for the wholesale auction prices:

Code:
> data <- read.csv('~/Documents/nissan-leaf/manheim-20150930.csv')
> fit <- lm(Price ~ Trim + Odometer + CR + QC + Premium + State, data=data)
> summary(fit)

Call:
lm(formula = Price ~ Trim + Odometer + CR + QC + Premium + State, 
    data = data)

Residuals:
     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
-1228.85  -264.98     3.57   228.29   955.99 

Coefficients:
              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept)  6.671e+03  3.031e+02  22.006  < 2e-16 ***
TrimSL       3.079e+03  1.330e+02  23.142  < 2e-16 ***
TrimSV       9.624e+02  9.278e+01  10.373  < 2e-16 ***
Odometer    -5.723e-02  7.853e-03  -7.287 3.77e-11 ***
CR           6.079e+02  6.016e+01  10.105  < 2e-16 ***
QCTRUE       7.512e+02  9.286e+01   8.090 5.73e-13 ***
PremiumTRUE  9.843e+02  1.235e+02   7.968 1.09e-12 ***
StateWA      1.557e+03  8.428e+01  18.479  < 2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 410.1 on 119 degrees of freedom
  (5 observations deleted due to missingness)
Multiple R-squared:  0.9584,	Adjusted R-squared:  0.956 
F-statistic: 391.6 on 7 and 119 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

In layman's terms, the model can be used as follows: Start with a base price of $6,671 for GA cars or 6671 + 1557 = $8,228 for WA cars. Add $962 for SV trim or $3,079 for SL. Add $751 if it has a QC. Add $984 if it has the Premium package. Add $608 times the Manheim Condition Rating (the median CR in the data is 4.2). Finally, SUBTRACT $0.05723 for each mile on the odometer (or, if you prefer, $57.23 for each thousand miles).

You can see that the model has a pretty good fit ... ~96% of the variability in the auction prices are described by these factors. About half of all cars sell at auction within ~$250 of the model price. As a result, I think this model can be a good guidepost for determining the approximate wholesale auction value of used 2013 Leafs ... with some caveats:
(1) Only directly applicable to GA and WA 2013 Leafs. I'd be happy to re-run the model if anyone has additional, reliable, recent data from other states. If I were trying to guess at the "base price" for other states, I'd look closely at the presence of state-based tax incentives and the climate conditions and try to interpolate between GA and WA.
(2) Only relevant for a point in time. This data is drawn from auctions that occurred within two weeks of the end of Sept 2015. These cars will continue to depreciate over time, both as the MY 2016's are introduced and as many more off-lease 2013's continue to come to market (I think that wave is just starting ...)
(3) The Manheim CR's in the data range from 2.0 to 4.9, because of the recent vintage of the cars. The model may not hold well if you come across a "Rough" or "Extra Rough" 2013.
(4) Many people have opined that battery condition is an extremely important datapoint in determining a car's value. I tend to agree, and this model (despite not directly using battery condition data) does not contradict that. I suspect that the trim level, the mileage, the CR, and the state data are all somewhat-to-highly correlated with battery condition. Buyers of 2013's can just exclude any cars with a battery deteriorated beyond the norm for it's age / mileage, and still use this model as a guide.

I built this model for my own use, maybe it's useful for somebody else.

Here's the cleaned data:
Code:
Year,Make,Model,Trim,VIN,Exterior,Interior,Odometer,CR,QC,Premium,State,Price
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP0DC412576,WHITE/,BLK,11460,4.6,FALSE,FALSE,GA,8600
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP0DC412867,GREY/,BLA,14148,4,FALSE,FALSE,GA,8900
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP0DC414652,WHITE/,BLK,19392,4.3,FALSE,FALSE,GA,7800
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP0DC414764,METALLIC/,BLK,18969,4.1,TRUE,FALSE,GA,7600
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP0DC414831,Black,Black,17318,3.5,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8400
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP0DC415199,White,Black,29629,3.6,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8100
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP1DC414398,METALLIC/,BLK,25607,3.7,FALSE,FALSE,GA,7500
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP1DC414482,METALLIC/,BLK,16009,4.2,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8900
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP1DC414840,GRAY/,BLK,24099,3.7,FALSE,FALSE,GA,7900
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP1DC414952,RED/,BLA,15328,4.7,TRUE,FALSE,GA,9400
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP1DC415003,BRILLIAN/,BLK,12970,2.4,TRUE,FALSE,GA,7800
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP1DC415163,BLACK/,BLA,22120,4.7,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8600
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP1DC417673,RED/,BLK,26091,4.5,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8800
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP1DC418385,Red,Black,15056,3.5,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8400
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP2DC415432,BLUE/,BLA,17363,4.7,FALSE,FALSE,GA,8700
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP2DC416161,WHITE/,BLK,20379,2.8,TRUE,FALSE,GA,7700
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP2DC416449,Red,Black,12943,2.3,TRUE,FALSE,GA,
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP3DC414466,SILVER/,BLA,22575,4.1,FALSE,FALSE,GA,8200
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP3DC415133,GREY/,BLA,20045,4.8,TRUE,FALSE,GA,9300
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP3DC415973,SILVER/,BLK,28911,4.2,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8200
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP3DC416122,Gray,Black,22421,3.7,FALSE,FALSE,GA,
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP3DC416590,Black,Black,30272,3.4,TRUE,FALSE,GA,7400
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP4DC414735,METALLIC/,BLK,17419,4.5,TRUE,FALSE,GA,9600
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP4DC415271,Red,Black,22237,3.3,TRUE,FALSE,GA,7800
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP5DC412752,White,Black,22401,2.3,FALSE,FALSE,GA,6700
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP5DC414033,Cayenne/,BLK,21670,4.3,FALSE,FALSE,GA,7700
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP5DC414730,METALLIC/,BLK,19251,3.5,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8400
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP5DC414825,SILVER/,BLA,18025,4.7,TRUE,FALSE,GA,9300
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP5DC415974,SILVER/,BLA,19615,4.3,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8800
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP6DC414283,WHITE/,GRY,19813,4.1,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8200
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP6DC414994,GREY/,BLK,18650,4.6,TRUE,FALSE,GA,9400
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP6DC415353,GREY/,BLK,15746,4,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8900
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP6DC423775,SILVER/,BLK,24887,4.3,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8500
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP7DC412879,BLUE/,BLA,20206,4.3,FALSE,FALSE,GA,8400
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP7DC414793,BLUE/,GRY,20437,4.3,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8400
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP7DC415121,METALLIC/,BLK,22766,3.9,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8500
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP7DC417872,GREY/,BLA,13274,4.9,FALSE,FALSE,GA,8300
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP8DC414950,MAROON/,BLK,21322,4.1,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8900
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP8DC414964,GLACIER/,BLK,19173,4.2,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8700
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP8DC415113,Blue,Black,20470,2,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8100
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP8DC415662,GREY/,BLA,15848,4.3,TRUE,FALSE,GA,9300
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP8DC415970,Silver,Black,14603,4.4,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8800
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP8DC416052,BLACK/,BLA,18147,4.4,TRUE,FALSE,GA,9200
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP8DC416696,Gray,Black,20169,2.8,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8400
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP8DC417086,Blue,Black,24018,4,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8100
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP9DC414374,BLUE,BLK,20871,4.4,FALSE,FALSE,GA,8400
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP9DC414472,GREY/,BLA,19154,4.2,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8900
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP9DC414701,BLACK/,BLA,15935,4.2,TRUE,FALSE,GA,9600
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP9DC415055,SUPER,BLK,24007,4.3,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8500
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP9DC415234,GREY/,BLA,14722,4.3,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8900
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP9DC415685,Red,Black,14827,2.8,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8400
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CPXDC414626,BLUE/,BLK,16537,4.8,FALSE,FALSE,GA,8500
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CPXDC414819,BRILLIAN/,BLK,20425,4.8,TRUE,FALSE,GA,9200
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CPXDC414979,GLACIER/,BLK,19269,2.7,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8600
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CPXDC415243,Gray,Black,25144,3.3,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8200
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CPXDC415582,GREY/,GRY,19944,4.1,FALSE,FALSE,GA,7500
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CPXDC415663,Gray,Gray,23996,4,FALSE,FALSE,GA,7600
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CPXDC417204,GREY/,BLK,16530,4.3,TRUE,FALSE,GA,9000
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CP0DC414781,BLACK/,BLA,22658,4.5,TRUE,TRUE,GA,12800
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CP1DC413607,BLACK/,BLA,10913,4.4,TRUE,TRUE,GA,13300
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CP2DC412711,SILVER/,BLK,12998,4.1,TRUE,FALSE,GA,12600
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CP3DC414015,GRAY/,BLK,23451,4.3,TRUE,TRUE,GA,13000
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CP6DC409598,BRILLIAN/,BLK,21525,4.4,TRUE,TRUE,GA,13000
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CP7DC410100,BLUE/,BLK,25962,4.6,TRUE,TRUE,GA,12200
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CP9DC412673,MAROON/,BLA,22926,4.3,TRUE,FALSE,GA,11100
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CP9DC414990,Gray,Black,19571,3.5,TRUE,TRUE,GA,12400
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CP9DC415265,Gray,Black,20989,3.6,TRUE,TRUE,GA,12500
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CPXDC414688,Red|,Black,14726,2.9,TRUE,TRUE,GA,13300
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CPXDC415453,Gray,Black,18442,3.6,TRUE,TRUE,GA,12600
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP0DC413548,WHITE/,GRE,22663,4.3,FALSE,FALSE,GA,9100
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP0DC415008,METALLIC/,GRY,21923,4.4,TRUE,TRUE,GA,11300
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP1DC407595,Black,Gray,19672,3.8,TRUE,FALSE,GA,10400
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP1DC413493,SILVER/,BLA,21984,4.7,TRUE,FALSE,GA,10700
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP2DC407475,RADIRED/,BLK,24783,4.3,TRUE,FALSE,GA,9800
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP2DC414748,Red,Gray,19349,3.4,TRUE,FALSE,GA,10300
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP3DC413639,GREY/,BLA,18368,4.3,FALSE,FALSE,GA,8700
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP3DC415519,WHITE/,TAN,19978,4.7,FALSE,FALSE,GA,10100
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP5DC414419,WHITE/,GRY,19038,4.4,TRUE,FALSE,GA,10200
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP5DC414520,WHITE/,GRE,19251,4.3,FALSE,FALSE,GA,9600
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP5DC416994,RED/,GRY,16542,2.4,TRUE,FALSE,GA,8500
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP6DC412582,PEARL,BLK,21232,4.1,TRUE,FALSE,GA,10200
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP6DC415207,Silver,Gray,18177,4.3,FALSE,TRUE,GA,10000
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP8DC408999,WHITE/,BLK,24289,4.2,FALSE,FALSE,GA,8800
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP9DC412088,REDBRICK/,BLA,24137,4.2,TRUE,FALSE,GA,9100
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP9DC413287,RED/,GRY,22102,4.2,FALSE,FALSE,GA,8300
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP9DC414147,WHITE/,GRE,24485,4.1,FALSE,TRUE,GA,10000
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP9DC414519,WHITE/,GRY,25584,4.4,FALSE,FALSE,GA,8700
2013,NISSAN,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CPXDC415274,RED/,GRY,21814,4.3,FALSE,FALSE,GA,8500
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP0DC412092,—,Black,24153,4.1,FALSE,FALSE,WA,10100
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP1DC425319,White,Black,14858,4.8,TRUE,FALSE,WA,11100
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP2DC413017,—,Black,14104,4,FALSE,FALSE,WA,10300
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP2DC413373,Black,Black,22576,4.5,TRUE,FALSE,WA,10600
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP2DC413616,Black,Black,17675,4.4,TRUE,FALSE,WA,
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP2DC420565,Black,Black,11052,3.2,TRUE,FALSE,WA,10400
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP3DC413916,Silver,Black,21126,3.9,TRUE,FALSE,WA,10600
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP3DC415410,White,Black,9726,3.7,TRUE,FALSE,WA,10400
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP4DC413763,White,Black,21038,3.5,TRUE,FALSE,WA,9600
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP4DC414556,Gray,Black,22975,3.9,TRUE,FALSE,WA,10200
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP5DC401024,White,Black,36892,4.9,FALSE,FALSE,WA,9700
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP6DC401100,Red,Black,22086,4.2,TRUE,FALSE,WA,10600
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP7DC414065,Blue,Black,15575,4.2,TRUE,FALSE,WA,10500
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CP8DC414138,Black,Black,17025,4.4,TRUE,FALSE,WA,10800
2013,Nissan,LEAF,S,1N4AZ0CPXDC414416,Black,Black,8010,2.5,TRUE,FALSE,WA,10200
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CP1DC411078,Gray,Black,13059,4.9,TRUE,FALSE,WA,14200
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CP2DC411087,Gray,Black,22837,4.1,TRUE,FALSE,WA,13400
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CP2DC415415,White,Black,15334,4.4,TRUE,TRUE,WA,15400
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CP4DC407980,—,Black,9736,4.3,TRUE,TRUE,WA,15100
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CP6DC409701,Black,Black,15444,4.6,TRUE,TRUE,WA,15400
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CP6DC411741,—,Black,24038,4.8,TRUE,TRUE,WA,13700
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CP7DC412171,White,Black,24491,4.3,TRUE,FALSE,WA,13300
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CP8DC401261,Black,Black,19206,4.2,TRUE,FALSE,WA,13800
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CP9DC412334,—,Black,12129,4.8,TRUE,FALSE,WA,14100
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CP9DC412818,White,Black,14368,3.5,TRUE,TRUE,WA,
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SL,1N4AZ0CPXDC408518,White,Black,20561,4.7,TRUE,FALSE,WA,13600
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP0DC407412,Blue,Black,17315,3.9,TRUE,TRUE,WA,12100
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP1DC413624,White,Black,20797,3.4,TRUE,FALSE,WA,10500
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP2DC406214,Black,Black,22194,4.2,TRUE,FALSE,WA,10900
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP2DC408853,Gray,Black,10365,3.6,TRUE,FALSE,WA,11600
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP2DC410067,White,Black,19382,2.1,TRUE,FALSE,WA,9300
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP2DC414295,Gray,Black,17539,4.5,TRUE,FALSE,WA,11900
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP2DC423305,White,Black,18437,4.7,TRUE,TRUE,WA,12900
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP3DC410062,White,Black,19297,4.2,FALSE,FALSE,WA,9900
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP4DC406862,Silver,Black,14414,4.3,TRUE,FALSE,WA,11700
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP4DC407364,Silver,Black,19874,3.5,TRUE,FALSE,WA,10500
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP4DC413021,Gray,Black,33473,4.7,TRUE,FALSE,WA,11100
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP5DC410726,—,Beige,13826,3.5,TRUE,TRUE,WA,12100
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP6DC409942,Silver,Black,21406,4.2,TRUE,FALSE,WA,11200
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP8DC411840,Gray,Gray,9052,4.6,TRUE,TRUE,WA,13300
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP9DC407621,White,Black,23884,2.7,TRUE,TRUE,WA,10400
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CP9DC408011,White,Beige,15051,3.7,TRUE,FALSE,WA,12000
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CPXDC407501,Black,Beige,11044,4.9,TRUE,TRUE,WA,
2013,Nissan,LEAF,SV,1N4AZ0CPXDC410950,Black,Black,16578,4.7,FALSE,FALSE,WA,10700
 
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