When will LEAF sales reach 100,000?

[evnow]

Unless Nissan makes some substantial improvements and updates, I expect that percentage to continue to drop as new and perhaps better players enter the market...

I think a drop in market share is inevitable, even though I don't see any better players entering the market with high value EVs.

 

[TomT]

It will be interesting to see what happens to Leaf sales when they hit 200,000 in this country and the federal tax credit then goes away completely... I believe that Nissan will have to lower the price then or watch sales wither...

 

[jelloslug]

It will be interesting to see what happens to Leaf sales when they hit 200,000 in this country and the federal tax credit then goes away... I believe that Nissan will have to lower the price then or watch sales wither...

Well, there were lots of naysayers that predicted that the Prius would flounder when the federal tax credits went away and now it's ranked in the top 20 best selling vehicles in the US.

 

[TomT]

Apples and oranges: It's a very different vehicle at a different price point.

It will be interesting to see what happens to Leaf sales when they hit 200,000 in this country and the federal tax credit then goes away... I believe that Nissan will have to lower the price then or watch sales wither...

Well, there were lots of naysayers that predicted that the Prius would flounder when the federal tax credits went away and now it's ranked in the top 20 best selling vehicles in the US.

 

[evnow]

Apples and oranges: It's a very different vehicle at a different price point.

It is a similar price point - but the main difference is the fed tax as a % is higher for Leaf than it was for Prius.

Nissan has just finished selling about 40 leafs in the US. I think it will be atleast 5 more years by the time they reach 200k - that should be enough to bring down the cost. BTW, the tax credit goes away slowly, rather than disappearing all at one - this assuming congress won't act to extend the credits. My guess is the credits will be extended but at a lower rate.

The biggest threat at that point to Leaf will be the other manufacturers whose 200k have not reached yet (like focus EV that should take about 150 years).

 

[RonDawg]

Apples and oranges: It's a very different vehicle at a different price point.

Not really. It's hard to envision a time when people didn't think the Prius would take off, but it's true. The first generation 1997-2003 Prius sold relatively poorly; per Wikipedia, only 123k were sold worldwide during those 8 model years. Nissan has almost caught up to that figure in just 3 model years.

Back in 2001 when the Prius first became available here, it was priced at $20k, a lot of money for a car of its size at the time; that is the equivalent of $26,300 today, almost the base price of a Leaf. Compare that to a 2014 Corolla which is priced as little as $17k.

The Prius didn't become really successful until the second generation model.

 

[TomT]

The first generation, based on the Echo, was painfully ugly and that likely also had something to do with the limited take... Regardless, it is still a very different beast. It had more utility than the Leaf as it was not limited in range or refueling options...

The Prius didn't become really successful until the second generation model.

 

[cwerdna]

Apples and oranges: It's a very different vehicle at a different price point.

Not really. It's hard to envision a time when people didn't think the Prius would take off, but it's true. The first generation 1997-2003 Prius sold relatively poorly; per Wikipedia, only 123k were sold worldwide during those 8 model years. Nissan has almost caught up to that figure in just 3 model years.

Back in 2001 when the Prius first became available here, it was priced at $20k, a lot of money for a car of its size at the time; that is the equivalent of $26,300 today, almost the base price of a Leaf. Compare that to a 2014 Corolla which is priced as little as $17k.

The Prius didn't become really successful until the second generation model.

(I don't like the Prius wikipedia entry because some "genius" screwed it up and decided to use "XW10", "XW20", etc. crap. Toyota has NEVER called their Priuses that. It's been NHW10, NHW11, NHW20, ZVW30, etc. I don't have bandwidth to fight that and change all the other associated entries.)

The NHW10 that began sale in late 97 was JDM only (steering wheel on the "wrong" side, messages and interface in Japanese only), so it's not a fair comparison. It had no touchscreen (had buttons under the color LCD) and was pretty wimpy. It also used D-cell NiMH batteries. There is a pic at http://prius.wikia.com/wiki/Original_Prius_%28sold_only_in_Japan_-_%22gen_0%22%29_-_NHW10" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

The first version we got in the US was the NHW11, which looks real similar externally to the NHW10 (like an Echo) but actually had a touchscreen and went w/rectangular (prismatic) modules. Per http://john1701a.com/prius/prius-history.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, the "Classic" model aka NHW11 began delivery in the US in August 2000. Pic and more info at http://prius.wikia.com/wiki/Prius_Generation_1_%28%22gen_1%22%29_-_NHW11" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

The hatchback version which was MUCH improved (which spanned the 04-09 model year) was the NHW20. I have one of these.

http://john1701a.com/prius/images/Prius-Generations.png" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; refers to NHW10 as Original, NHW11 as Classic, NHW20 as Iconic, etc.

From looking at http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=W&n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, gasoline back in August 2000 was $1.40-ish/gallon in the US and by December 01 was down to just a tad over $1/gallon. And, the tax benefits were pretty lame back then, a $2K tax deduction (NOT a credit), IIRC.

I bought my Prius when the $3150 tax credit began (in January 06).

This is definitely a very apples vs. orange comparison. Can you imagine if the Leaf was selling w/gas in the low $1/gallon range? In expensive electricity states, it'd be cheaper to fuel a Prius.

 

[RonDawg]

Apples and oranges: It's a very different vehicle at a different price point.

Not really. It's hard to envision a time when people didn't think the Prius would take off, but it's true. The first generation 1997-2003 Prius sold relatively poorly; per Wikipedia, only 123k were sold worldwide during those 8 model years. Nissan has almost caught up to that figure in just 3 model years.

Back in 2001 when the Prius first became available here, it was priced at $20k, a lot of money for a car of its size at the time; that is the equivalent of $26,300 today, almost the base price of a Leaf. Compare that to a 2014 Corolla which is priced as little as $17k.

The Prius didn't become really successful until the second generation model.

(I don't like the Prius wikipedia entry because some "genius" screwed it up and decided to use "XW10", "XW20", etc. crap. Toyota has NEVER called their Priuses that. It's been NHW10, NHW11, NHW20, ZVW30, etc. I don't have bandwidth to fight that and change all the other associated entries.)

The NHW10 that began sale in late 97 was JDM only (steering wheel on the "wrong" side, messages and interface in Japanese only), so it's not a fair comparison. It had no touchscreen (had buttons under the color LCD) and was pretty wimpy. It also used D-cell NiMH batteries. There is a pic at http://prius.wikia.com/wiki/Original_Prius_%28sold_only_in_Japan_-_%22gen_0%22%29_-_NHW10" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

The first version we got in the US was the NHW11, which looks real similar externally to the NHW10 (like an Echo) but actually had a touchscreen and went w/rectangular (prismatic) modules. Per http://john1701a.com/prius/prius-history.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, the "Classic" model aka NHW11 began delivery in the US in August 2000. Pic and more info at http://prius.wikia.com/wiki/Prius_Generation_1_%28%22gen_1%22%29_-_NHW11" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

The hatchback version which was MUCH improved (which spanned the 04-09 model year) was the NHW20. I have one of these.

http://john1701a.com/prius/images/Prius-Generations.png" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; refers to NHW10 as Original, NHW11 as Classic, NHW20 as Iconic, etc.

From looking at http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=W&n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, gasoline back in August 2000 was $1.40-ish/gallon in the US and by December 01 was down to just a tad over $1/gallon. And, the tax benefits were pretty lame back then, a $2K tax deduction (NOT a credit), IIRC.

I bought my Prius when the $3150 tax credit began (in January 06).

This is definitely a very apples vs. orange comparison. Can you imagine if the Leaf was selling w/gas in the low $1/gallon range? In expensive electricity states, it'd be cheaper to fuel a Prius.

I realize that the first generation Prius had been on sale in Japan for a few years before we got a hold of it, but we still got 3 model years worth of the car and even then Toyota only managed to sell 123k of them worldwide. So I think it is a fair comparison.

While the Prius' incentives were not as great as they are for the Leaf, remember that before MY 2013, the Leaf was also a more expensive car even when inflation is factored. Only when Nissan dropped the prices for 2013 have they become somewhat comparable to what a 2001 Prius sold for, when inflation is factored. Without those incentives, Nissan's experiment could have failed spectacularly here, simply due to the prices.

Gas being super cheap in 2001 certainly did not help sales of the Prius, or any small car for that matter, but gas prices today aren't so horrible that people are ditching their pickups and SUVs either. The Big 3's full size trucks still make the top 10 of new "cars" sold in the US.

Leaf sales are definitely on the upswing; over 22,000 were sold in the past year alone. That's more Leafs than Nissan sold in the US for 2011 and 2012 COMBINED. http://green.autoblog.com/2014/01/03/nissan-leaf-ends-2013-best-sales-month-ever-chevy-volt/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Perhaps the next gen Leaf, with a (hopefully) more heat resistant battery and a (hopefully) longer realistic range, will be to Nissan what the 2nd gen Prius was to Toyota.

 

[Nubo]

The first generation, based on the Echo, was painfully ugly and that likely also had something to do with the limited take... Regardless, it is still a very different beast. It had more utility than the Leaf as it was not limited in range or refueling options...

Depends on what utility matters to the buyer. The LEAF has far more interior space, is more comfortable and a better hauler.

 

[edatoakrun]

After hitting six-figure LEAF sales on 1/?/14 (anyone have the exact date?) time to guess how soon till that number is doubled.

New thread at:

When will LEAF sales reach 200,000?

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=15648&p=350266#p350266" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;