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lorenfb said:
scottf200 said:
EVDRIVER said:
Perhaps you failed to notice that the data is user defined just like your fixed assumptions. The only laughable thing is your propaganda agenda.
Haha, there is a reason that guy is on my ignore list :) . Clearly the user can adjust the input as my arrows point out to adjsut the Log Growth S-Curve. I take Ben the Data Scientist skills over his any day ...

Now to hear him speak, the "model" becomes even more laughable, i.e. a 10K/wk production (~ 500K/yr) with a forecast three years out.
Maybe when he takes basic micro-econ and marketing classes in junior college, he'll develop something useful other than serving up
hyperbole for those that typically "drink the Tesla kool-aid", i.e. like the two above!

Noting like quoting people peoples opinions on the internet to validate points. Nice way to act like a Russian bot on Facebook.
 
Slightly (?) reassuring:

Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Model 3 production problems: "You'll definitely get your car"

...Asked if there's been many cancelled orders by customers frustrated by the long wait, Musk said, "It's mostly like people cancel because, you know, they just needed a car and we didn't have a car for them."

"But do you feel, Elon Musk, personally a lot of pressure and a big burden on your shoulders because so many people believe in this product and believe in this company because of you?" King asked.

"Okay. Well, I hope their faith is not misplaced," he said.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-elon-musk-model-3-production-delays-interview-today-2018-04-12/
 
edatoakrun said:
Slightly (?) reassuring:

Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Model 3 production problems: "You'll definitely get your car"

...Asked if there's been many cancelled orders by customers frustrated by the long wait, Musk said, "It's mostly like people cancel because, you know, they just needed a car and we didn't have a car for them."

"But do you feel, Elon Musk, personally a lot of pressure and a big burden on your shoulders because so many people believe in this product and believe in this company because of you?" King asked.

"Okay. Well, I hope their faith is not misplaced," he said.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-elon-musk-model-3-production-delays-interview-today-2018-04-12/


It's like any other product, if it's not available or does not meet your needs or cost get something else. All this hype is just that, hype.
 
http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/vehicles/electric/electric-vehicle-rebate.shtml

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lorenfb said:
Out of what orifice did that graphic originate, especially the implication of that large of a M3 (>$50K) market segment with a plateau
of 7500/week into perpetuity? Appears to be just a textbook copy of a mathematical step function applied to an integration
function, e.g. first week of Production Management 101.

Laughable!

It's a tool, like a graphing spreadsheet, Loren. You are welcome to plug in whatever numbers you need to to get the plot to take whatever shape will make you feel good.
 
lpickup said:
lorenfb said:
Out of what orifice did that graphic originate, especially the implication of that large of a M3 (>$50K) market segment with a plateau
of 7500/week into perpetuity? Appears to be just a textbook copy of a mathematical step function applied to an integration
function, e.g. first week of Production Management 101.

Laughable!

It's a tool, like a graphing spreadsheet, Loren. You are welcome to plug in whatever numbers you need to to get the plot to take whatever shape will make you feel good.


I don't think it accepts negative numbers.
 
RegGuheert on March 30 said:
Zythryn said:
RegGuheert said:
...It seems their approach is known to have serious drawbacks, yet they are pursuing it anyway.
...
The approach of trying to land rocket stages also has serious drawbacks, yet SpaceX pursued that route anyways.
Perhaps the advantages are worth the challenge?
What benefits would those be?

Costs? According to the article, they spent double per car what other manufacturers spent for this line:
TorqueNews said:
"Tesla has spent c.2x what a traditional OEM spends per unit on capacity."
But doesn't that expenditure saves them on labor costs? These analysts estimate that Tesla will reduce labor costs by $50/car by spending $550/car on automation:
TorqueNews said:
"So the net labour saving may be only $50 per unit. Yet putting the automation into the plant seems to involve an apparent capital cost that's $4,000 higher per unit of capacity than for a normal plant. If the product is built for 7 years, that's over US$550 of additional depreciation per unit built."
Perhaps this expensive automation buys higher quality? Not according to the Business Insider article linked from the article I linked:
Business Insider said:
Bernstein adds that the world's best carmakers, the Japanese, try to limit automation because it "is expensive and is statistically inversely correlated to quality."
So that leaves throughput. I suppose that is the major topic of discussion, isn't it? The thesis of the Business insider article seems to be that it is the robots themselves that are to blame:
Business Insider said:
In a rare win for humans over robots in the battle for labor efficiency, Wall Street analysts have laid down a compelling argument that over-automation is to blame for problems at the billionaire Elon Musk's electric-car company.
They put it more bluntly farther down in the article:
Business Insider said:
Warburton, who spent his career before Wall Street at the International Motor Vehicle Program — a partly academic, partly commercial organization based at MIT — wrote that "automation in final assembly doesn't work."
So, is that the final word on the subject? Of course not. Analysts are often wrong, especially when it comes to new technology. But we all know that automation of vehicle manufacturing is NOT new. And the articles are pointing out that what Elon Musk is trying to do with the Model 3 has been tried before and the result was not successful.
To his credit, it seems that Elon Musk finally got the message, albeit the hard way (bolding below is mine):
InsideEVs said:
Tesla CEO Elon Musk wanted production to be so highly automated that it was basically hands-off to humans, minus maybe some final inspections and quality control.

To achieve this level of automation, new machines were envisioned, design, developed and implemented.

However, after awhile it became clear that certain parts of automotive production couldn’t be accomplished successfully by even the most advanced of robots.

Machines were ripped out and replaced by humans. That’s how Tesla was able to finally up Model 3 production after months of constant struggles.

Now, Musk is willing to admit that it was all his fault.
ETA: Here is a more detailed article on this subject from Business Insider.

ETA2: I think this is the original CBS News article on the subject.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOz7cPJQd8E[/youtube]
 
Machines were “ripped out”?
Seems a little dramatic.
Per the interview, Tesla saw something wasn’t working well, so they changed it.
They are young, and ambitious. They tried something, it didn’t work, so they made modifications. They did so very quickly as well.

So now, Tesla is running with less automation and more people.
We will see if they can hit their 5000/week goal in a few months, or if it takes longer.

As an aside, a friend of mine just got their invite to configure yesterday :D Ordered online, non owner.
 
Intentionally or not, it now looks like TSLA spoofed the BB model which, no longer shows an estimate of 3k weekly production.

...as of this moment, our estimated weekly production has fallen back down to 2,866 and production is now expected to continue to step down over the next three weeks. We've made no changes to the model, so what gives?

The revisions are almost entirely due to new VINs being reported to Bloomberg (Method 2). In early April those numbers jumped by almost 4,000 VINs in a single week, producing a noticeable gap in the dataset. It's not clear what caused the jump, whether Tesla for some reason temporarily skipped over a chunk of VINs or if it was just an artifact of how new customers reported their vehicles to Bloomberg during the surge. Regardless, that portion of our model responded as if a major new surge was underway.

But our model is built to continually adjust its estimates as we receive new data, and the most recent VINs reported to Bloomberg initiated such a correction. Those numbers should continue to revise downward until they reach Tesla's new equilibirum, wherever that may be...
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

RegGuheert said:
 
edatoakrun said:
Intentionally or not, it now looks like TSLA spoofed the BB model which, no longer shows an estimate of 3k weekly production.

If it's not intentional, it's not a "spoof", it's a faulty model. Sorry, you need to put the blame on Bloomberg themselves in that case, not Tesla.
 
lpickup said:
edatoakrun said:
Intentionally or not, it now looks like TSLA spoofed the BB model which, no longer shows an estimate of 3k weekly production.

If it's not intentional, it's not a "spoof", it's a faulty model. Sorry, you need to put the blame on Bloomberg themselves in that case, not Tesla.

That's not the way Ed and Loren roll.......
 
edatoakrun said:
Intentionally or not, it now looks like TSLA spoofed the BB model which, no longer shows an estimate of 3k weekly production.

...as of this moment, our estimated weekly production has fallen back down to 2,866 and production is now expected to continue to step down over the next three weeks. We've made no changes to the model, so what gives?

The revisions are almost entirely due to new VINs being reported to Bloomberg (Method 2). In early April those numbers jumped by almost 4,000 VINs in a single week, producing a noticeable gap in the dataset. It's not clear what caused the jump, whether Tesla for some reason temporarily skipped over a chunk of VINs or if it was just an artifact of how new customers reported their vehicles to Bloomberg during the surge. Regardless, that portion of our model responded as if a major new surge was underway.

But our model is built to continually adjust its estimates as we receive new data, and the most recent VINs reported to Bloomberg initiated such a correction. Those numbers should continue to revise downward until they reach Tesla's new equilibirum, wherever that may be...
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

RegGuheert said:


so the logical answer must be that production rates are crashing. The chart does not lie.


I'm not sure why were so concerned about day to day numbers rather than a general trend. To me the general trend has been upward, and all reports are that it is getting better. Unless you don't believe the CBS reporter who was there last week.

I'm still waiting on my reservation. I've been invited for a month now, but waiting for the same car I can order today, with only the smaller battery as the change. I'm not in any hurry, and I expect I'll have a car late this year or early next.
 
palmermd said:
... I expect I'll have a car late this year or early next.
Good luck...

Tesla Is Temporarily Shutting Down Model 3 Production. Again.

During the pause, workers can choose to use vacation days or stay home without pay. This is the second such temporary shutdown in three months for a vehicle that’s already significantly behind schedule.


...Over the last six months, Tesla’s inability to meet its production goals has become a mounting problem for the company. The most recent miss came at the end of the first quarter of 2018; Musk had said the company would be manufacturing 2,500 cars a week by that date, but it was making only 2,000 per week by April 1. Now, just two weeks later, production is once again on hold...

These production problems — as well as some lackluster reviews of the new Tesla model and alleged problems with its Autopilot technology — could put Tesla on the path to bankruptcy, CNN (and others) have reported. Musk’s only comment on this possibility to date has been an April Fools' joke in which he pretended the business, which employs more than 30,000 people, had in fact gone out of business, and that he was wandering Palo Alto drinking a fake product called Teslaquilla...
https://www.buzzfeed.com/carolineodonovan/tesla-model-3-production-shutdown-delay-elon-musk?utm_term=.yqpqXV44Jk#.ilKrAommyY
 
Ed,
if You think a 3-5 day delay is going to impact a year end delivery then you really have one up on all of us.
 
EVDRIVER said:
Ed,
if You think a 3-5 day delay is going to impact a year end delivery then you really have one up on all of us
I assume that the shutdown WILL impact a year-end delivery since they likely are taking this step to further optimize the assembly line. I would think Tesla is either replacing some assembly-line equipment with better versions or replacing them with humans in and effort to improve throughput at some bottleneck (or perhaps at multiple bottlenecks).
 
RegGuheert said:
EVDRIVER said:
Ed,
if You think a 3-5 day delay is going to impact a year end delivery then you really have one up on all of us
I assume that the shutdown WILL impact a year-end delivery since they likely are taking this step to further optimize the assembly line. I would think Tesla is either replacing some assembly-line equipment with better versions or replacing them with humans in and effort to improve throughput at some bottleneck (or perhaps at multiple bottlenecks).

Yes, it improves my chances of getting it by year's end. These negative comments (from Ed and loren and seeking alpha) seem to be getting more desperate lately. In the short term I hope they are successful; I'll just buy more stock on a dip.
 
Yes, means the seeking alpha writing trolls will need to scurry for more articles to write. I hear Elon may take a day off in July, that should create a flurry of gloom and doom articles. Could you imagine if Tesla had the pack issues the LEAF has, it would be national news. The sad part of all these FUDsters is that they try to make Tesla into a vilified company when they have actually demonstrated the opposite, particularly when compared to Nissan, Toyota, and others. People should be cheering a company that has accomplished so much, provides incredible innovation and market changes, US jobs, and opened its patents. Instead we have people cheering for their failure to profit and entitled whiners that are upset they can’t get what they want when they want it. Nothing like rallying for a solid innovative company promoting a beneficial cause to fail, pretty patriotic. It blows my mind to hear people say Tesla never intended to build a low price car and it’s a trick while Nissan knew their packs would degrade and they basicallly did everything they could to screw customers out of warranty support while dealers try to fleece customers with oil changes. No company is perfect but this entire experience says more about people than Tesla.
 
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