Committed LEAF 2018 Buyer: Raise Your Hand

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LeftieBiker said:
You can get LDW on the LT. I'm not sure about AEB.

maybe... maybe not. I would double check the differences in terminology and verify exact what each "lane" feature does since they are called different things. AEB is definitely only available on premium and for whatever reason the configurator requires you to add two packages instead of just one so its a $1,000 dollar option
 
IIRC the Premiere comes with Driver Confidence I standard, so I think you are only adding one package for DC II. Likewise the Premiere comes standard with the (optional on LT) heated seats and wheel.
 
One thing that gives me pause about an early 2018 LEAF reservation/purchase is the growing feeling that the car isn't going to be well-received by the market; primarily because 200 miles range has become established in the public psyche as the new bar. I'm fine with 150 but I've got a feeling Nissan is going to be incentivizing like crazy to bridge the gap to 2019 when they can compete on specs. Even more so if the tax credit fades.

Though it would be inconvenient I might just turn in my lease in March and take a few months to see how things pan out. Interesting times.
 
You do have a good point. If the credit stays, but is still somehow threatened, it will be a rather unpleasant game of Tax Credit Chicken for many of us...
 
The latest deal I heard on the Bolt LT was the offer of employee pricing at $36,000 on a $42,000 Moroney MSRP. They were also sold, in addition, a $3000 extended warranty. Some of what inflated the MSRP was tinted windows, etching glass, and quick charge outlet.
 
Nubo said:
One thing that gives me pause about an early 2018 LEAF reservation/purchase is the growing feeling that the car isn't going to be well-received by the market; primarily because 200 miles range has become established in the public psyche as the new bar. I'm fine with 150 but I've got a feeling Nissan is going to be incentivizing like crazy to bridge the gap to 2019 when they can compete on specs. Even more so if the tax credit fades.

Though it would be inconvenient I might just turn in my lease in March and take a few months to see how things pan out. Interesting times.

A valid concern... BUT

we already know that Nissan has been discounting LEAFs heavily for a long time and the market suggests that that will continue especially in the face of real competition. The more discounted Bolts become, the lower the LEAF will be. I am guessing come Jan, Bolts will be right back up to their $36-42 K range all in.

Your lease ends in March, you are aware you can extend that right? or is that no longer available (I would consider that unlikely)

The other thing to consider is a better likelihood that the residual of the lease will be over market 3 years from now allowing another chance to negotiate downwards. Now, Nissan has gotten much smarter about that. My residual on my 2016 S30 is $9100 and in Nov, 2019 I am guessing that is right about where the market would be on that car (assuming I am in the 45,000 mile range... :? )
 
Nubo said:
One thing that gives me pause about an early 2018 LEAF reservation/purchase is the growing feeling that the car isn't going to be well-received by the market; primarily because 200 miles range has become established in the public psyche as the new bar.

The market shows that while there is a lot of talk about 200+ being the new normal, but it's all talk. The subtext is "Yes , I want a 200+ mile EV, but I want it at a price point that does not yet exist." Nissan knows the entry level EV market better than anyone, and knows that an under $30K EV before incentives is the key consideration for the typical EV buyer today.

Price is the key consideration for the majority of EV buyers today, and Nissan will do quite well with their mid-range LEAF with or without the federal tax credit.
 
I'm very surprised at all the people saying that if the tax credit is removed that it won't affect their decision much. How can that be? A $7500 price change for ANY car would be a deal breaker for me.
 
OrientExpress said:
The market shows that while there is a lot of talk about 200+ being the new normal, but it's all talk. The subtext is "Yes , I want a 200+ mile EV, but I want it at a price point that does not yet exist." Nissan knows the entry level EV market better than anyone, and knows that an under $30K EV before incentives is the key consideration for the typical EV buyer today.

Price is the key consideration for the majority of EV buyers today, and Nissan will do quite well with their mid-range LEAF with or without the federal tax credit.

It's funny how much this subtext shows up, even on this very thread. Every time someone refers to the Bolt as "overpriced", this is exactly what they are saying. The Bolt's price is actually very impressive if you consider the huge battery you get in the car. In order to achieve what they did, GM had no choice but to cheapen the interior (among other compromises).

I like Nissan's approach. But I think even they realize that the 2018 Leaf is geared more towards the Japanese and European markets than the US market. The world is bigger than the US. Much bigger. How many 2018 Leafs has Nissan sold worldwide through November? I would say the car is already a hit!

https://insideevs.com/nissan-sells-19000-plus-new-leafs-in-first-month-on-market/
 
But the Bolt is overpriced, and it's dismal sales record proves that. Currently GM loses about $6K on incentives for every Bolt that moves off of a dealers lot.

Again Nissan understands the price sensitivity of the low end of the market which is why they configured the current LEAF that both appeals to the typical EV buyer, and makes them money at the same time. In the next 12 months they will have a 225+ mile offering that will be a great value for a long-range EV, but will keep the mid-range offering as the low-price leader.
 
If I am decoding people like DaveinOly correctly, they are interested in the 2018 LEAF if it costs them under $10k for a 3 year lease. Since Nissan dumps the end of leases on the auction market for around $7k, your grand design for Nissan and its EVs only makes sense if Nissan is profitable at a retail cost of under $17k a car. That is almost certainly not the case.. Even when Nissan keeps the federal tax credit, the arithmetic is no where near obvious.. It depends on the ZEV credit value
 
OrientExpress said:
But the Bolt is overpriced, and it's dismal sales record proves that.

I respectfully disagree on both points. The Bolt has a 60kWh battery. That's usable, not total like Nissan advertises. Total is probably 65-70kWh. Where else can you find an EV with that size battery starting at this low of a price? You simply can't. If battery range is what you need (and for many of us it is), the Bolt is quite the deal!

OrientExpress said:
Currently GM loses about $6K on incentives for every Bolt that moves off of a dealers lot.

IF this is true (neither of us are in a position to know), then it flies in the face of your first claim. Buying a car for less than it costs to build is an incredible deal!

As for "dismal" sales? The numbers are right in line with the 20-25k GM intended to sell in the first year. IMO, the numbers are much more a function of GM's desire to market and actually sell the car.

Year-to-date, it is only exceeded by the Model S. If anything, Nissan's sales are "dismal" for 2017.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
Nubo said:
One thing that gives me pause about an early 2018 LEAF reservation/purchase is the growing feeling that the car isn't going to be well-received by the market; primarily because 200 miles range has become established in the public psyche as the new bar. I'm fine with 150 but I've got a feeling Nissan is going to be incentivizing like crazy to bridge the gap to 2019 when they can compete on specs. Even more so if the tax credit fades.

Though it would be inconvenient I might just turn in my lease in March and take a few months to see how things pan out. Interesting times.

A valid concern... BUT

we already know that Nissan has been discounting LEAFs heavily for a long time and the market suggests that that will continue especially in the face of real competition. The more discounted Bolts become, the lower the LEAF will be. I am guessing come Jan, Bolts will be right back up to their $36-42 K range all in.

Your lease ends in March, you are aware you can extend that right? or is that no longer available (I would consider that unlikely)

The lease originally was to end in November, but I signed up for the 2018 LEAF extension program with several free months. Not sure if any extension beyond that date can be arranged if I'm not agreeing to buy a 2018 LEAF. Haven't asked yet.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
I respectfully disagree on both points.

I can understand why you disagree. I don't get the sense that you understand the EV market from a manufacturer's perspective.

GetOffYourGas said:
The Bolt has a 60kWh battery.

So what? It could have a jillion kWh battery, but if you can't sell it at a price that makes you a profit, then you have to sell it at a loss. That is the crux of GM's dilemma, they thought that the market for entry level EVs was range sensitive ("give them 200+ range and they will be standing in line for you to take their money"), when it is not, it is price sensitive, always has been.

But nevertheless, GM flooded the market with $42K+ 200+ mile cars that were simply too expensive for their target market. At one point this summer, GM had over 200 days worth of Bolt inventory gathering dust on dealers lots. So they were forced to do what any good marketeer does with distressed merchandise, you fire sale the hell out of it to move it off the lot and take the loss. Currently GM loses about $6K on incentives for every Bolt that moves off of a dealers lot.

GetOffYourGas said:
IF this is true (neither of us are in a position to know), then it flies in the face of your first claim. Buying a car for less than it costs to build is an incredible deal!

GM has to incentivise their Bolt in some markets by $6K and sell it at a loss to make their sales goal, balance their inventory, but in the process they will continue to lose a significant amount of money on each Bolt sold. They realize that their product is overpriced, and are working to cost reduce it, but for most of 2018 they will still be selling the car at a loss. GM knows they have to be in this segment and are willing to take the profit hit in order to gain market share.

But to your point that as a consumer, it is a good deal, sure it is, if 200+ miles of range in an otherwise marginal platform is the only criteria.

The Nissan LEAF is still the best selling EV world-wide, and there are still more LEAFs on the road globally than any other marque. One of the reasons for that is its balance of all of the things that make owning and driving an EV a positive and inexpensive experience. It is also a vehicle that achieves that while allowing Nissan to make an acceptable profit on. It is a win for the consumer and it is a win for the manufacturer.

Lastly for 2017, the transition to the new LEAF was planned the way it is, and Nissan is content with it.
 
TomT said:
That pretty much sums it up for me too...

dm33 said:
Model 3 reservation in place.

Not interested in 2018 leaf.
Too little range.
No thermal management of the battery.

Would consider the Bolt before the leaf.

It is nice to dream of a model 3, but I don't think you will ever get one in your driveway. They do not the capactity to manufacture.. Not enough money...
 
Here is why the LEAF will be a big success in the 2018 Model year. It's all about the best car for the price.

18leafpricingpositioning.png
 
powersurge said:
TomT said:
That pretty much sums it up for me too...

dm33 said:
Model 3 reservation in place.

Not interested in 2018 leaf.
Too little range.
No thermal management of the battery.

Would consider the Bolt before the leaf.

It is nice to dream of a model 3, but I don't think you will ever get one in your driveway. They do not the capactity to manufacture.. Not enough money...

I would take that bet. Tesla will most likely deliver the Model 3. It may take a few years to get through the reservations, but they will do it.

It will cost more than the Bolt (actual purchase price - Tesla doesn't offer discounts off MSRP like most OEMs do), and much more than the Leaf.
 
OrientExpress said:
Here is why the LEAF will be a big success in the 2018 Model year.
Set the 2018 LEAF to 100 miles range to account for expected battery degradation.
 
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