SoCal LEAF & EV Gathering, Y7 - Finished - 19 Aug 2017

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GRA said:
garygid said:
For NG or H2, no matter liquid or gas, the production and distribution chain still appears to be energy use intensive, and likely releases a lot of greenhouse gas to the atmosphere. Solar panels to generate electricity ... seems like a better process to me, and distribution is often already in place. In my Garage, I think H2 and the gas water heater would be a ... bad mix. Even at only 1% per day boil off, it seems like too big of a risk in many garages, underground parking, and in typical service facilities.
Somewhere over in the H2 thread, I provided a link to a study of whether or not H2 could build up to a flammable concentration (4%) in a typical garage given a leak. Even sealing it to a much greater extent than would be the case with a real-world garage (or house FTM), achieving such a concentration was a practical impossibility. Service facilities are even more open. Underground garages may be another matter, but I imagine it all depends on how they're ventilated. Remember, gaseous H2, being such a tiny molecule and lighter than air, will rise and diffuse through just about everything (which is why pure H2 pipelines are so expensive, and they prefer to mix it in low concentrations in NG pipelines). It's not going to pool on the floor.

For sure if LNPG has a venting problem then H2 will also have broblems.

By the way, I saw a red Toyota Muiri in the McDonalds drive through today. From the side it looks OK. IF they could just moderate the UGLY front end. I can see why sales are so slow. People will not buy an ugly car.
 
Here's the article I was thinking of:
Dispersion of Permeated Hydrogen in Residential Garages and Assessment of Explosion Hazard for Small Leaks
http://rpsonline.com.sg/proceedings/9789810877248/html/978-981-08-7724-8_07-03.php

Unfortunately, it used to be free to read, but now it's behind a paywall. You can read the abstract, though, which among other things says:
. . . It is argued that the formation of a flammable hydrogen-air mixture as a result of regulated permeation from a hydrogen powered car in residential garages is impossible. The explosion hazard of small leaks able to form flammable hydrogen-air mixture in sealed, or under-ventilated, enclosures is discussed. An overview of the experimental data of different authors confirmed that combustion of initially quiescent lean hydrogen-air mixture without turbulisers in the range of hydrogen concentrations 4-8% by volume produces practically no pressure load that could affect the integrity of the garage structure. . . .
 
An almost-sealed garage, with the only vent(s) at floor level on one side, and an "exposed" flame in the water heater ... I would not risk my house by parking a LH2 vehicle, or having a LH2 storage tank, inside the garage.

How many cubic feet of H2 gas are produced by a 10% full LH2 tank/vehicle in 24 hours at 140 degrees F in the garage?

Perhaps they locked the document, perhaps made it Confidential, as one pays, because it is a misleading study. "Impossible" is rarely used in real scientific studies.

Sounds a bit like a "climate change is impossible" study, in my opinion.
 
In our LPNG case the only vents with the doors closed were the vented skylights. I think the install area had 3 or 4. Usually the roll up doors were open but when we were closed so were they.

Over three years retired so it is not my problem anymore! Now Long Beach tax payers support me. Paying SSN plus Calpiers was a bitch but in the end it worked out.
 
garygid said:
An almost-sealed garage, with the only vent(s) at floor level on one side, and an "exposed" flame in the water heater ... I would not risk my house by parking a LH2 vehicle, or having a LH2 storage tank, inside the garage.

How many cubic feet of H2 gas are produced by a 10% full LH2 tank/vehicle in 24 hours at 140 degrees F in the garage?

Perhaps they locked the document, perhaps made it Confidential, as one pays, because it is a misleading study. "Impossible" is rarely used in real scientific studies.

Sounds a bit like a "climate change is impossible" study, in my opinion.
Not locked, just behinds Elsevier's paywall. I wish I'd copied it when it was still free, but it essentially used a test space sealed off to a level that was physically impossible in a normal garage, and IIRR they were unable to achieve the LFL concentration of 4.1% or anywhere close to it. But if you don't like that one, the other two earlier studies I provided links to are available for free.
 
GlennD said:
In our LPNG case the only vents with the doors closed were the vented skylights. I think the install area had 3 or 4. Usually the roll up doors were open but when we were closed so were they.

Over three years retired so it is not my problem anymore! Now Long Beach tax payers support me. Paying SSN plus Calpiers was a bitch but in the end it worked out.
The thing is, while experience with NG is useful, it doesn't behave the same as H2. Here's an example of potential modifications to safety codes, from the SF-Breeze LH2 ferry optimization study currently underway:
Sandia is reviewing International Maritime Organization codes for liquid natural gas-powered vessels and developing a technical basis for codes that could be created for hydrogen fuel-cell vessels. Currently, liquid natural gas codes are the closest regulations that can be applied to hydrogen-powered vessels, but they may not accurately represent the properties of hydrogen.

For example, the LNG code requires LNG vessels to have a clearance of 30 feet around all sides of their vents. Hydrogen is lighter than natural gas and much lighter than air, so it does not sink in air like LNG does. Thus, a 30-foot clearance underneath a vent might not be a necessary requirement for a hydrogen ferry, said Sandia Labs mechanical engineer Myra Blaylock, technical lead for the project.

Labs researchers are using computer simulation to explore and analyze four common vent and leak scenarios in which hydrogen could be released on-board vessels to show actual hydrogen behavior. The computational simulations have underlying physics models that have been validated through experiments and allow researchers to confidently explore various scenarios in a quicker and less-expensive way than conducting experimental work for each individual case. The results can be used by the International Maritime Organization to ensure the accuracy of the codes when applied to hydrogen vessels.
See http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/07/20170714-sandia.html

So, assuming that what would be unsafe with NG is equally unsafe with H2 is probably not accurate. H2 certainly has safety issues, but ISTM the regulatory agencies are proceeding with due caution to see just what the dangers are in real-world exposure to consumers. Which isn't to say that there won't be accidents as people learn more - as the saying goes, safety regs are written in blood. Still, given the negative public perception of H2 safety based on everyone's favorite disaster newsreel from the 1930s (erroneous though the general public's perception of the causes and subsequent injuries/fatalities of that may be), I suspect that most western countries' regulators are being very cautious, because the politicians over them know the public backlash they'll face given even the smallest serious accident involving the public.
 
Just saw this article at GCR, which describes the steps needed for a dealership to work on the fuel cell or H2 tank/lines: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1111440_how-do-you-service-a-hydrogen-fuel-cell-car-at-a-dealer

It's a fairly involved process.
 
Given my current lifestyle I could live with a Toyota H2 vehicle. Given Toyota's UGLY front end I think I will stick with my eGolf. You may build a better car but if it is ugly the market will respond.

In my opinion the ugly car is limiting sales. I was one of those that considered the Leaf good. I realize some hated it but everyone hates the Toyota.It is UGLY! No wonder sales are down. I think all current Toyota and Lexus cars are ugly. Who in their right mind would buy a 2018 LS.

One the one hand you have arts and on the other cars. I am not a teen ager. I want something that is understated.
 
GlennD said:
Given my current lifestyle I could live with a Toyota H2 vehicle. Given Toyota's UGLY front end I think I will stick with my eGolf. You may build a better car but if it is ugly the market will respond.

In my opinion the ugly car is limiting sales. I was one of those that considered the Leaf good. I realize some hated it but everyone hates the Toyota.It is UGLY! No wonder sales are down. I think all current Toyota and Lexus cars are ugly. Who in their right mind would buy a 2018 LS.

One the one hand you have arts and on the other cars. I am not a teen ager. I want something that is understated.
There's no doubt that the Mirai's and to a somewhat lesser extent the Clarity's looks retard sales. Most people have to be willing to get the car(s) in spite of their looks, not because of them.
 
We had a large Gathering, 19 bodies, including 6 ladies, as near as I could count. I know, 2 more and I would have run out of fingers and toes. We stayed more than halfway through the 11 to 4 lunch window, finally clearing out at 2 pm ... probably our longest Gathering.

Thanks all for the many great discussions, and the very caring comradery.

Next Gathering is in 2 weeks, on Aug 5th, at the Golden Corral in the City of Industry. Then, 2 weeks after that, on Aug 19th, back at the Hometown Buffet in Santa Ana.

After that, we slip 3 weeks, to skip Labor Day weekend, as I recall. See this thread's first post for Gathering dates through December.
 
So, my friends with Tesla Model 3 reservations, the news is out there. What are your thoughts on converting your reservation(s) to orders?

Best I can tell from various news sources:

$35k plus $1200 delivery chg for a 220 mile (probably less than 60 kWh pack) car with cloth seats, one central screen, manual seats, metal main roof, all Supercharging for a usage fee, AP hardware but not activated, black paint or 5 other colors for extra $1k, WiFi and LTE, keyless entry via cell phone or RFD card (no fob), dual
Zone climate, Nav and Maps, LED lights.

$9k extra for bigger pack, estimated 310 miles range, faster accel and faster charging,

$5k extra for premium interior, heated power seats, glass roof, wireless phone charging, rear USB ports, wood dash trim, upgrade sound, covered console storage, folding dimming side mirrors, driver profile memory

$1500 extra for nicer, larger wheels ( 19 inch vs 18 inch black aero covers)

$5k extra to activate AP features including adaptive cruise control

$3k extra to activate full self driving

No dual motors yet, wait maybe a year.
No P series yet, no word on that

First cars going to customers (assume non-employees) in October, but first ones shipped will be large battery, Premium interior, so $50,200 including destination fee, but before adding AP, color paint, nicer wheels.

Fully loaded: right at $60k before tax and DMV, and that's without dual motors, or $57k if you don't order full self driving. Compare to a base Model S RWD at $72k or $76k with AP activated. Maybe a $20k difference if you compare similarly equipped Model 3 and S.

Oh, and at this moment, apparently no Model 3 leases from Tesla, only purchases.

Motor Trend got an early informal test drive and absolutely loved the car.

Tesla delivery estimator has me getting a large battery Premium model between November and January. If I order a small battery car, I'm in the Jan to March time frame. Those of you who already have a Model S or X and ordered day one will probably be in the Oct thru Dec time frame.

For me, I'm thinking large battery, Premium interior, larger wheels, AP, color paint. I'd really much prefer a lease. Will have to do some major thinking if lease not available when I order. My son wants my other reservation, but at base price only.
 
Great gathering of info, way beyond what was "delivered" by the Tesla video. Thanks.

However, a 220 to 310 mile range, about a 40% (88 miles) increase in range, would seem to need at least a 40% increase in battery capacity ... 60 kWh to 60 + 24 = 84 kWh, or maybe 50 kWh + 20 = 70 kWh usable, perhaps called 60 kWh and 75 kWh by marketing?

Perhaps to avoid the glass roof, one is limited to the Standard Interior?

Will the Standard $35k model have any form of Cruise Control?

See you all next Saturday at the Golden Corral in City of Industry.
 
Boomer23 said:
Those of you who already have a Model S or X and ordered day one will probably be in the Oct thru Dec time frame.
Yes, as I posted in the "Model 3" thread, that is indeed the case for us.

Our big dilemma is that our mountain-dwelling family currently has no vehicle with AWD, and it's no fun having to install snow chains to satisfy the California authorities. A portion of our family would also like to have the "AutoPilot" feature and get in a long range EV that's smaller than our beautiful Model S. The plan has been to replace our Prius with a dual motor Model 3; we only really "need" one vehicle with AWD. Unfortunately, though for good reasons, Elon keeps pushing back the availability of this variant - the current estimate from Tesla for us is Aug. - Oct. 2018.

Eventually, it would be nice for us to acquire a Model X for the larger size, AutoPilot v2, and trailer hitch for bikes. I suppose if we made such an acquisition sooner rather than later, then that'd also give us AWD, and the Model 3 could be RWD. However, even a used Model X (with at least 90 kWh capacity) would be quite pricey! Three years from now might be another story.

I'm sort of thinking the wisest course of action might be to just wait for a dual-motor Model 3, even if we miss some of the federal tax credit. That'd also give Tesla more time to work out bugs. Finally, I must say that we are very blessed to even be able to entertain such discussion, given that most of the world is less fortunate than we are.
 
Very nice test drive review of Model 3 at Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-31/driving-tesla-s-model-3-changes-everything

Video, A nice photo showing the glass roof, diagram how you can sleep in it even though it is not a true hatchback. The photo is from Washington Post. Interior, presumably premium, looks a lot better than earlier shots.

I really like this photo - it almost sells the car for me by itself

-1x-1.png
 
Boomer23 said:
So, my friends with Tesla Model 3 reservations, the news is out there. What are your thoughts on converting your reservation(s) to orders?
$35k plus $1200 delivery chg for a 220 mile (probably less than 60 kWh pack) car with cloth seats, one central screen, manual seats, metal main roof, all Supercharging for a usage fee, AP hardware but not activated, black paint or 5 other colors for extra $1k, WiFi and LTE, keyless entry via cell phone or RFD card (no fob), dual
Zone climate, Nav and Maps, LED lights.

$9k extra for bigger pack, estimated 310 miles range, faster accel and faster charging,

$5k extra for premium interior, heated power seats, glass roof, wireless phone charging, rear USB ports, wood dash trim, upgrade sound, covered console storage, folding dimming side mirrors, driver profile memory

$1500 extra for nicer, larger wheels ( 19 inch vs 18 inch black aero covers)

$5k extra to activate AP features including adaptive cruise control
.....

For me, I'm thinking large battery, Premium interior, larger wheels, AP, color paint. I'd really much prefer a lease. Will have to do some major thinking if lease not available when I order. My son wants my other reservation, but at base price only.
Boomer, you and I checked most of the same boxes. I may hold off on the Full Self Driving unless I can I drive a S or X demo of it that knocks my socks off.

This link shows $1000 for delivery & doc but maybe that employee is at Fremont factory.
My wife was leaning towards a non-leather interior. Interesting that leather is no longer an option on Teslas. So, easy decision.
Oct-Dec delivery shows for me on the "MyTesla" page.

Lots of car changes for me in the next year I think.
Selling the LEAF after 7 good years.
Selling my workhorse Volvo SUV which is no longer driven except to car wash and gas station it seems.
Buying Model 3. Like you, I'd prefer to lease but no prob if I have to buy.
Sell my Model S.
Will probably lease a an X100D once Tesla does the inevitable re-fresh and the mid-2017 inventory units are priced to move.
Hoping Model Y happens about the time Model X lease runs out.
 
Cool stuff, guys. Nice to read your thoughts.

Here's my favorite and most comprehensive review yet. Motor Trend had Kim Reynolds, (tbleakne and my acquaintance) their road test editor get to drive the red Model 3 that Tesla's chief designer Frank Von Holtzhausen is driving around So Cal, on roads up near Mulholland Dr just a couple days before the July 28 delivery event.

Lots of photos and video and some great, glowing commentary from Reynolds.

http://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model-3/2018/exclusive-tesla-model-3-first-drive-review/?wc_mid=4035:7980&wc_rid=4035:1237027&_wcsid=F0944E96A537C6FF126522EAB2C8C7A94A5FC01C67F7EA23
 
Confirming that with MS ownership + near front of line on day 1, thanks to Boomer, my reservation also shows Oct-Dec as earliest delivery for $49K, 310 mi range, Dec-Feb for 220 mi range battery, May-July 2018 for dual-motor, no price.

Moving up to full AP is key to me for my next car. It looks like I will have to give up on waiting for more, better radar (phased array) for AP. Elon was quite specific that the current complement of 8 cameras + 1 forward radar will take us to full Level-4 AP. I am not so sure, and it is a shame, because UCI developed a prototype phased array chip for autonomous driving several years ago.

Current radar on all cars is pathetic, with wide beam and just simple chirp continuous wave processing to derive range. Phased array gives you a much smaller beam, electronically steerable in micro-seconds, with enough power to reflect not just from cars, but carbon-based life forms, in all kinds of weather. Having range and range-rate information to complement the camera detection should really improve detection and motion prediction.

I would also like dual motor, mainly because it is cool, and opting for that would give me more time to wait.
 
-1x-1.png

That photo puts me in mind of voluntarily driving in a reflector oven in the desert SW. There've been plenty of complaints that the A/C isn't able to cope with high temps in the SE or SW, and unless this roof has some major differences from those in the S/X, I see little likelihood of any improvement here. Is there any indication the Model 3 offers a built-in sliding sunshade, or will people be dependent on some sort of cheap afterthought band-aid of a sunshade as has happened in the past? Personally, while there are situations where such a roof is nice, I'd opt for a simpler/cheaper/lighter approach of a conventional roof. Don't need a sunroof either, for the same reason. If I want to look at the sky, I can step or sleep outside. And a solid roof will be warmer in cold temps as well.
 
I also love the the photo and will opt for the glass roof.
I've driven my pano-glass-roof Model S in the desert Southwest at noon in 110° F sun and up over the I-15 summit near Beaver, UT at -9° F.
Always comfortable. My balding head is very sensitive to temps.
 
sparky said:
I also love the the photo and will opt for the glass roof.
I've driven my pano-glass-roof Model S in the desert Southwest at noon in 110° F sun and up over the I-15 summit near Beaver, UT at -9° F.
Always comfortable. My balding head is very sensitive to temps.
Everyone's temperature tolerance is different, and there will inevitably be a range of views on whether a sunshade/solid roof is or isn't necessary or desirable for comfort, in addition to the reduction in HVAC energy usage that it provides. In my case, I routinely cross-country ski shirtless, dressed in nothing but shorts, socks, boots, gaiters, fingerless bike gloves and a ball cap, so while my tolerance to cold is excellent, it's the opposite to heat. If I lived in a hotter climate instead of just visiting them occasionally, that might be different.
 
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