LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

I too think that Nissan should provide both a longer (~250 mi) and shorter (150 mi) range for the Leaf2.

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With Nissan looking to save construction costs to compete on price, how would they do this? The way that makes the most sense would be to offer a 30 or 40kwh S, and have the bigger battery in the SL and SV, which are very similar in construction. Otherwise they'd either have to offer alternate SV and SL versions with two different packs, or put the larger pack in the SL only, which would then likely mean they'd have to offer a cloth interior as well. They might as well just offer a new model and call it the "Touring" or some such thing. Anyway, given how the rumors have turned out so far, I'll believe a 250 mile Leaf when I see one tested by a major automotive magazine.

ydnas7 said:

The summary of the article is summarized as follows.
The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined sharply, falling to 1/5 in 2010 from 2015 when the original leaves were released. It decreases to 1/10 in 2020.
2010 800 USD / kWh> 400 USD / kWh in 2014> 150 USD / kWh in 2016> 100 USD / kWh in 2020

Ouch, early LEAFs had $800/kWh battery.
http://aliss.jp/?p=395

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If the 2020 prediction of $100 USD / kWh is true, then I hope in 2020 Nissan will be willing to sell me a 30 kWh pack for my 2015 for $3000. They get my original 24 pack back and turn it into stationary storage so they can make money on the transaction. I would even pay $3500 if they need to justify some kind of reprograming of the BMS to use the 30 pack in the old Leaf.

The image from this post: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=492760#p492760

... shows the Leaf 2.0 will have 350-400km of range per the JC08 cycle. We know this is a unreasonable number, so we'd like to compare it to EPA numbers.

The first generation Leafs, that had claimed 200km (124.2miles) & 228km (141.6mi), ended up with 73 & 84 miles respectively via EPA standards.

That gives us a conversation factor of 0.587 & 0.593. Let's average the two to get a simple 0.59.

350km-400km, converted to miles is 217.48-248.548. Multiply that by 0.59, and we get our EPA predicted range of:

128.3 to 146.6 miles. Not upwards of 150 miles, which is too optimistic.

I predicted the Leaf 2.0 would have 134 miles of EPA range awhile back, using some other numbers presented by Nissan here:

http://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=23691

Seems this new evidence supports this claimed range.

phr00t said:

That gives us a conversation factor of 0.587 & 0.593. Let's average the two to get a simple 0.59.

350km-400km, converted to miles is 217.48-248.548. Multiply that by 0.59, and we get our EPA predicted range of:

128.3 to 146.6 miles. Not upwards of 150 miles, which is too optimistic.

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Let's consider two assumptions:
a) the conversion factor
b) efficiency improvements (aerodynamic drag and/or power train)

If we use the current 30kWh battery Leaf to generate the conversion factor (107 (EPA) divided by 174 (JC08) = .6149 ) then we get a predicted EPA range of 133.7-152.8

Efficiency improvements seem trickier to project but maybe we can use MPGe to create a predictive, albeit rough, conversion factor. The current 2017 Leaf has 112 MPGe, the updated BMW i3 has 118, the updated eGolf has 119 and the Ioniq has 124 MPGe. So the 3 recently-released competitors have an average MPGe of 120. If we assume Nissan can just meet the average efficiency of its peers, we get a projected efficiency improvement of 7.1% (120 / 112).

If we apply that to the predicted range of 133.7-152.8, the new, more efficient range becomes 143.1 to 163.6

134 still looks too low to me. Earlier, I had predicted 155 mi for Leaf 2.0. That could be a mile or two high but it's in the ballpark.

The 350-400km number on the chart already includes aerodynamic improvements, just as it did for the 200km to 228km jump. You are double-accounting for it in your numbers.

Let's not cherry pick the best JC08 conversion number, but average them. If we have a new 0.61 data point, the new average is about 0.6.

The new range is 130.4 to 149.1 miles. Still in my 134 mile estimate, but it might be slightly low. I wouldn't expect a 155 mile range.

I don't think there were any aerodynamic improvements in the 200 to 228km jump, which was primarily due to a battery increase. However, it was the ultimate range of the car according to the JC08 standard, which included aerodynamics. Just reiterating you can't factor in more efficiency improvements. For what it is worth, my 134 mile estimate included aerodynamic improvements.

I'll guess 160 mile range based on 4 miles per kWh and 40 kWh usable battery.
After a year or two of use ? THAT is a much harder question to answer.

I would take the 40 kwh LEAF for the right price. I can go back to hypermiling (yes that measly 6 kwh bump on my S30 has corrupted me...) and get rid of the gasser. Plus, allow me to choose when to start my 2 years of free charging (about year 3 I am thinking!) and it would be all good!

SageBrush said:

I'll guess 160 mile range based on 4 miles per kWh and 40 kWh usable battery.
After a year or two of use ? THAT is a much harder question to answer.

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It's very easy to answer, the range will be essentially the same. Just like the 2014 through 17 cars have little if any range loss.

OrientExpress said:

SageBrush said:

I'll guess 160 mile range based on 4 miles per kWh and 40 kWh usable battery.
After a year or two of use ? THAT is a much harder question to answer.

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It's very easy to answer, the range will be essentially the same. Just like the 2014 through 17 cars have little if any range loss.

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No range loss in 3 years? I'll have whatever you are smoking.

PS How much is Nissan paying you to post this nonsense?

OrientExpress said:

I believe that Nissan understands that there is a market for a LEAF with a choice of range options.

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Understanding what the market wants and delivering it are two different things. I believe the chart shows maximum available option - not minimum. So, in MY18 Leaf we may still get a 110 mile and a 150 mile range Leaf. In 2020 we'll get the 200 mile range Leaf.

This isn't too shabby (except for the loss of face vs GM). You get a cheaper (lower range) EV in Leaf. You get a higher range, higher priced "premium" car in Model 3. Chevy Bolt will be the joker in the pack.

ps : This is how the loss of face looks like.

evnow said:

...This is how the loss of face looks like.

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Carlos may just be one many people that make that sort of face after sitting in Bolt seats...

Whatever battery capacity the gen two LEAF has, I expect it probably will continue to outsell the Bolt handily world-wide, just as the gen one LEAF does now.

Stoaty said:

No range loss in 3 years? I'll have whatever you are smoking.

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Nope, not a bit, (or at least none that is detectable in day to day driving.). Our 2014 is driven hard and does that, and so do many other 2014 and later owners cars.

OrientExpress said:

Stoaty said:

No range loss in 3 years? I'll have whatever you are smoking.

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Nope, not a bit, (or at least none that is detectable in day to day driving.). Our 2014 is driven hard and does that, and so do many other 2014 and later owners cars.

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And many show considerable loss, as perusal of relevant threads here will show, as you well know but choose to ignore/deny (just as you did back in 2012 when reports of rapid early loss in hot climates surfaced, leading to the fairly widespread belief that you were/are a corporate shill for Nissan). Here's one such thread, on degradation being experienced on 2016-2017 30kWh batteries: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=30&t=23606 Similar threads exist for 2013s, Lizard batteries, etc.

It seems that a few still insist that there is some corporate consiparcy with the LEAF to hide a basic flaw in its design. Could it be that those that are so adament about these acquisations are on the American Petroleum Institute's paid anti-EV troll squad?

Honestly in the real world there are always going to be ancedotal edge cases for every situation, but focusing on alleged cases without any real backup that is a systemic issue, is just another case of alarmest alt-news misinformation.

It does not matter what the real situation is, there is a small contigent that seem to have an anti-EV chip on their shoulders and are hell bent on denigrating the LEAF, and anyone that calls this BS out. Now that's fine, it is a free country, but to be honest, these positions just don't seem to hold water when exposed to critical examination. If there was any crediablity that these claims were widespread, the LEAF would not still be the best selling EV in the world.

Sigh, so all I can recommend is that is time to move on my friends, it's 2017 not 2012 and much has changed, so lets get back on topic please. Peace.

OrientExpress said:

Stoaty said:

No range loss in 3 years? I'll have whatever you are smoking.

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Nope, not a bit, (or at least none that is detectable in day to day driving.). Our 2014 is driven hard and does that, and so do many other 2014 and later owners cars.

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OK, so you don't have any easily detectable capacity loss in your close to ideal climate. Many other drivers in good climates are also experiencing good battery capacity retention, no one is arguing with that. However, those in less ideal climates (like the San Fernando Valley in Los Angeles where I work, Arizona, Texas, Florida, etc.) are having a different experience--and that includes Lizard replacement batteries in many cases. Sticking your head in the sand and pretending this isn't happening is not serving anyone... except perhaps Nissan.

OrientExpress said:

It seems that a few still insist that there is some corporate consiparcy with the LEAF to hide a basic flaw in its design. Could it be that those that are so adament about these acquisations are on the American Petroleum Institute's paid anti-EV troll squad?

Honestly in the real world there are always going to be ancedotal edge cases for every situation, but focusing on alleged cases without any real backup that is a systemic issue, is just another case of alarmest alt-news misinformation.

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Ah, yes, as an owner of a 2011 Leaf with 60,000 miles on it I am obviously a paid anti-EV troll. If you consider the edge cases to be Southern California, Arizona, Texas, Georgia and Florida (among others) I would certainly agree with you, but you seem to think that only cool climates (which don't need a TMS) are the "standard" by which all should be judged.

PS I have lost slightly over 30% of my original battery capacity in 6 years. I keep hoping that Nissan has solved the problem for hotter climates, but haven't seen any such evidence to date. A BEV without a TMS will probably not be on my list when I buy my next EV.

Stoaty, You really seem to have a SUYA when it comes to this topic, and are determined to put words in my mouth to substantiate your trollish arguments.

So, to repeat my opinion again, just for you, there are always going to be edge cases for any situation, but the number of those cases across ALL climates does not seem to indicate a systemic problem by any stretch of the imagination. And to be honest if you don't like your 2011 get another car! What has happened with your 2011, it's old news, it that was a learning experience for Nissan, they took that learning to improve the quality of their traction batteries greatly, and owners of 2014 and later cars have a much better experience with their LEAFs today.

And for those cars that operate in extreme conditons and do have a problem, they are now taken care of by Nissan quickly and professionally. What do you not understand about this?

Peace.

OrientExpress said:

And to be honest if you don't like your 2011 get another car!

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I have never said I don't like my 2011, what I don't like is the rapid battery capacity loss. As I said, I have not seen any evidence that Nissan has substantially fixed this problem for hotter climates. I am taking Nissan at their word (their warranty), that current Leafs are warranted to retain 65% capacity during the warranty period. If the warranty period was 10 years and capacity guaranteed was 70% (what Nissan originally claimed back in 2010) I would be very satisfied. As it is, I will probably go with a battery chemistry with TMS such as Tesla or even GM.

PS The only reason I am posting is because I see you misleading others who live in hotter climates about how great the batteries are now, when there isn't good evidence that they have improved much.

Stoaty said:

PS How much is Nissan paying you to post this nonsense?

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Judging by his handle, I'll guess an unlimited supply of opiates. :lol: