BEV and AV news from CES 2017

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SageBrush said:
I tried to estimate how much money Nissan loses on each lease that is eventually auctioned for around $6000. Even considering CARB ZEV credits, the best I came up with was -- a lot. I figured they collect 10k from the lease, 6k from the auction and 5k from the CARB credit. That is no way forward for Nissan's EV adventure. I know I sound like a merchant of doom and gloom. Apologies to all who want to see the EV space expand but I am pessimistic with regards to Nissan unless they pull a rabbit out of the hat that starts with much improved battery cooling tech.
Don't forget they also collect the $7,500 tax credit - still doesn't sound like a money maker for them in today's market... all the more reason for them to get Leaf 2.0 out!
 
Back on-topic, More hints (from a source with significant Japanese connections) about Nissan's CES reveal, as reported below.

I don't expect to be disappointed, if a substantially new BEV or BEVx with an improvement in efficiency over the LEAF gen one, close to the efficiency of the world-leading Ioniq BEV is announced, and with timely ~2018 MY deliveries.

As also has been hinted at previously, Whenever the Gen 2 LEAF is announced, I believe it probably will have a 30 kWh total base pack, with a somewhat higher kWh, (I'd guess between 40 and 50 kWh total) optional.

Which one I'd choose would depend on the variable price and efficiency of each option.

Ghosn Hints At 'Substantial' CES Reveal, But Nissan Leaf's New Battery Could Disappoint At First

Nissan’s long-awaited second generation of its battery-electric Leaf could make a public appearance as early as in a few weeks. However, the car’s range could initially be a little less than the expected 400 kilometers (250 miles) per the optimistic Japanese standard.

On Friday, Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn dropped heavy hints of a major announcement at the upcoming Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.

“It will be a substantial presentation. We will show the public how much our cars are going to change with the technology we are going to be implementing,” Ghosn continued....

Nissan, the world’s first volume maker of battery-electric vehicles and holder of half their global market share together with alliance partner Renault, will be at the show for the first time. Not only that, Carlos Ghosn will open the show with a keynote speech. The boss doesn't want to come to Vegas empty-handed...
http://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2016/12/16/ghosn-hints-at-substantial-ces-reveal-but-the-leafs-new-battery-could-disappoint-at-first/#6467089b2793
 
Ghosn is on record as saying that when they show a new vehicle, they like to put it on sale immediately - i.e. the new Zoe. Here's hoping.
 
Ghosns ethanol / natural gas fuel cell car was giving Brazilian officials test drives a few days ago, it is possible we see more on that tech
 
Don't be surprised if this is the updated version of what we saw at the Tokyo auto show. A concept car with hints of Leaf 2 and autonomous drive.

I think Nissan took a big chance with in-house battery that obviously didn't work out. Degradations and cost not falling as much as the competition. Very difficult to move out of this situation quickly for Nissan.

So, I won't expect a 200+ Leaf anytime soon - since it didn't come with '17 model, as some of us had hoped. To me this means, they have decided to move to LG batteries that will take some years to come to market with.
 
edatoakrun said:
Back on-topic, More hints (from a source with significant Japanese connections) about Nissan's CES reveal, as reported below.

I don't expect to be disappointed, if a substantially new BEV or BEVx with an improvement in efficiency over the LEAF gen one, close to the efficiency of the world-leading Ioniq BEV is announced, and with timely ~2018 MY deliveries.

As also has been hinted at previously, Whenever the Gen 2 LEAF is announced, I believe it probably will have a 30 kWh total base pack, with a somewhat higher kWh, (I'd guess between 40 and 50 kWh total) optional.

Which one I'd choose would depend on the variable price and efficiency of each option...
Using stats from Nissan xStorage the capacity of the next gen AESC battery is estimated by Pedro at ~37.5 kWh (And, IMO, that's available, capacity, and likely ~41.5 kWh total.)

I think Pedro may be in error when he assumes the figures he reports ("storage capacity") are total capacity.

I think current 24 kWh LEAF packs may have ~23.4 kWh (on average) available, not ~23.4 kWh total as Pedro reports.

2013 LEAF with ~500 miles on them averaged ~24.2 kWh total capacity in AVTA tests, a significant increase over the lower capacity packs in 2011 and 2012 LEAFs:

https://avt.inl.gov/vehicle-button/2013-nissan-leaf

I would not be surprised if continued incremental improvements over the last four years mean the most recent 24 kWh LEAF packs manufactured would have shown ~26 kWh total, and ~23.4 kWh available, on average, if they were tested shortly after manufacture.

Eaton Nissan xStorage reveals future battery capacity
BY PEDRO LIMA · DECEMBER 23, 2016

We can see a 60 % battery capacity improvement for 2017...

While it’s still unknown if the new battery cells will have their weight and volume unchanged, it’s very probable, this means an energy density increase to 507 Wh/L and 251 Wh/kg, not bad for a pouch cell.

Here you have it, you can expect 37,44 kWh capacity for the new battery, this is a bit disappointing since the first information I got months ago was that the facelifted Nissan Leaf would get at least 41-42 kWh of usable battery capacity.

Yet, the Hyundai IONIQ Electric proved us that battery capacity isn’t everything. What cool features do you think Nissan has reserved for the facelifted Leaf unveil?
http://pushevs.com/2016/12/23/eaton-nissan-xstorage-reveals-future-battery-capacity/
 
kmp647 said:
Some type of an SUV or compact SUV would be a winner in the USA.
No one seems to want sedans anymore.
Indeed. For whatever reason, the US auto market has shifted in the direction.

For context, for those who haven't seen figures, see http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html. And, also look how far down Leaf is compared to top selling vehicles in the US: http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2016/12/november-2016-ytd-usa-vehicle-sales-rankings-by-model.html.
 
evnow said:
So, I won't expect a 200+ Leaf anytime soon - since it didn't come with '17 model, as some of us had hoped.
It is possible that the '17 model year is a short one and an '18 could come early...

If Nissan's doesn't have a 200+ mile EPA range EV w/price similar to a Bolt by say beginning of Q4 2017, I think they're going to see Leaf sales/leases in the US really tank unless Bolt availability is poor or it turns out to be a piece of crap or Nissan does massive discounting.
 
cwerdna said:
evnow said:
So, I won't expect a 200+ Leaf anytime soon - since it didn't come with '17 model, as some of us had hoped.
It is possible that the '17 model year is a short one and an '18 could come early...

If Nissan's doesn't have a 200+ mile EPA range EV w/price similar to a Bolt by say beginning of Q4 2017, I think they're going to see Leaf sales/leases in the US really tank unless Bolt availability is poor or it turns out to be a piece of crap or Nissan does massive discounting.

of course its possible and its what I have been predicting for a long time. Its not like Nissan hasn't done it before with the LEAF. I predict early Q3
 
edatoakrun said:
Maybe there'll be two BEV reveals at CES?

Fiat Chrysler Said to Reveal Full Electric Vehicle at CES

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV will reveal a fully electric vehicle based on the Chrysler Pacifica minivan at CES in Las Vegas next month as the carmaker moves to get in step with the industry’s shift toward electric vehicles...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-09/fiat-chrysler-said-to-reveal-full-electric-vehicle-at-ces?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Apparently, no new F/C BEV next week:

Electric Chrysler Pacifica Absent From FCA's CES Plans

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles has just announced its plans for CES 2017 and an all-electric Chrysler Pacifica is notably absent.

Previous reports have suggested that the brand was preparing to unveil an electric Pacifica at CES, but in a press release, it doesn't get a mention, with FCA instead focusing on its fourth-generation Uconnect system, the Uconnec Theater and the Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid, the industry's first electrified minivan.

It was thought that Chrysler had opted to unveil an electric Pacifica just a few months after the hybrid variant, and even if it doesn't debut at CES, that doesn't mean it isn't being developed...
http://www.carscoops.com/2016/12/electric-chrysler-pacifica-absent-from.html

Let's hope there is at least one new BEV reveal at CES, Nissan's...
 
cwerdna said:
If Nissan's doesn't have a 200+ mile EPA range EV w/price similar to a Bolt by say beginning of Q4 2017, I think they're going to see Leaf sales/leases in the US really tank ...
I read this and thought "haven't they already tanked?" -- but then I looked at the plug-in sales scorecard and it looks like they should hit 13K this year, and while it's still a decline, it's not as steep as I thought it would have been.
 
jlv said:
cwerdna said:
If Nissan's doesn't have a 200+ mile EPA range EV w/price similar to a Bolt by say beginning of Q4 2017, I think they're going to see Leaf sales/leases in the US really tank ...
I read this and thought "haven't they already tanked?" -- but then I looked at the plug-in sales scorecard and it looks like they should hit 13K this year, and while it's still a decline, it's not as steep as I thought it would have been.
There are often incentives here in the bay area where they are offered for nearly for free. And perhaps really for free if a someone has a big gas bill to take into account. If more people where aware of the deals I would think sales would double.

Really is a very nice car for new student, and the lease price can't be beat.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhpgQHw6RF4

Ambitious concept, and this BEV (but no production-ready BEV) will be officially premiered by F/C at CES.

Chrysler Unveils Portal Electric Minivan – 100 kWh Battery & 250 Miles Of Range (w/video)

Leave it to Chrysler, the minivan pioneer, to come forth with the first long-range, all-electric minivan.

Called Portal and purely a concept for now, this minivan packs a 100 kWh battery pack that’s good for some 250 miles of purely electric driving bliss. It’s front-wheel-drive and features a single electric motor.

Chrysler says that Portal can recharge at a rate of up to 350 kW, which means it can be juiced back up from empty to 150 miles of range in just 20 minutes or so.

Apparently “350 kW” is now the future-tense catch rate for charging, as the Chrysler EV could take full advantage of both the Europe-wide network which begins construction this year (400+ stations) and also EVgo’s first ever US-based 350 kW station being constructed now...

We’ll have more on Portal when it get revealed in full CES 2017...
http://insideevs.com/chrysler-unveils-portal-electric-minivan-100-kwh-battery-250-miles-of-range/

edatoakrun said:
edatoakrun said:
Maybe there'll be two BEV reveals at CES?

Fiat Chrysler Said to Reveal Full Electric Vehicle at CES

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV will reveal a fully electric vehicle based on the Chrysler Pacifica minivan at CES in Las Vegas next month as the carmaker moves to get in step with the industry’s shift toward electric vehicles...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-09/fiat-chrysler-said-to-reveal-full-electric-vehicle-at-ces?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Apparently, no new F/C BEV next week:

Electric Chrysler Pacifica Absent From FCA's CES Plans

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles has just announced its plans for CES 2017 and an all-electric Chrysler Pacifica is notably absent.

Previous reports have suggested that the brand was preparing to unveil an electric Pacifica at CES, but in a press release, it doesn't get a mention, with FCA instead focusing on its fourth-generation Uconnect system, the Uconnec Theater and the Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid, the industry's first electrified minivan.

It was thought that Chrysler had opted to unveil an electric Pacifica just a few months after the hybrid variant, and even if it doesn't debut at CES, that doesn't mean it isn't being developed...
http://www.carscoops.com/2016/12/electric-chrysler-pacifica-absent-from.html

Let's hope there is at least one new BEV reveal at CES, Nissan's...
 
Recent comments from CG suggests today's announcement may be more about AVs than EVs:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJOGZX6_WVc

Jan 4, 2017
Hands-free: What it’s like to “Drive” an autonomous drive car – by Carlos Ghosn


...Today, I experienced the unusual, thrilling sensation of riding in the driver's seat of an autonomous-drive car as it navigated the streets of Sunnyvale in California's Silicon Valley.

The car is an advanced prototype Infiniti Q50 sedan capable of handling complex city driving. It has a special California registration for autonomous drive vehicles, and I had to receive a special state license to operate it hands-free.

What struck me was how quickly I grew comfortable as the car smoothly and safely negotiated the suburban streets, including intersections and dense traffic. Accompanied by a Nissan engineer, we simply set the destination, put the car in autonomous drive mode, and off we went – safely, without a hitch.

We went on both the freeway and city streets; there were times when other drivers cut in on us, but never did we feel threatened. Each time the car anticipated the other car's move and reacted appropriately.

As I mentioned in a recent post, cars that can change lanes on their own, negotiate city streets and handle the drudgery of stop-and-go traffic are coming soon. In fact, the Renault-Nissan Alliance has committed to launch at least 10 models with significant autonomous drive functionality by 2020.

As these technologies advance, the auto industry has an unprecedented opportunity to make our roads much safer while giving drivers a less stressful and more productive commuting experience.

Today (January 5), I will present our vision of an autonomous and connected future at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. You can watch it live here...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pa4zRPGyHJg
http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa/releases/hands-free-what-it-s-like-to-drive-an-autonomous-drive-car
 
Jan 5, 2017
PRESS KIT: Nissan Intelligent Mobility at CES

Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn announces at CES breakthrough technologies
and partnerships to deliver zero-emissions, zero-fatality mobility


News At-a-Glance

On January 5, 2017 during his CES keynote Nissan chairman of the board and chief executive officer Carlos Ghosn announced several advancements as part of the Nissan Intelligent Mobility blueprint for transforming how cars are driven, powered and integrated into wider society. Highlights included:

The launch of Nissan' breakthrough Seamless Autonomous Mobility (SAM) system. Developed from NASA technology, SAM partners in-vehicle artificial intelligence (AI) with human support to help autonomous vehicles make decisions in unpredictable situations and build the knowledge of in-vehicle AI. This technology will enable millions of driverless cars to co-exist with human drivers in an accelerated timeline. It is part of Nissan Intelligent Integration...

A new Nissan LEAF will be coming in the near future. The model will be equipped with ProPILOT technology, enabling autonomous drive functionality for single-lane highway driving. This new LEAF will build on the company's leadership in electric vehicles, which includes more than 250,000 Nissan LEAFs sold worldwide since 2010. The new LEAF represents the next chapter of Nissan Intelligent Power...

The world is facing serious challenges such as climate change, traffic congestion, road fatalities and increasing air pollution. Nissan is committed to addressing these challenges by making transportation safer, smarter, and more enjoyable, with the ultimate goal of achieving zero-emissions and zero-fatalities on the road. Nissan Intelligent Mobility is the roadmap.

Guided by the vision of mobility for all, Nissan is implementing these innovations by bringing them from luxury segments to compact high volume models and ensuring everyone has access to the benefits. Nissan is making cars exciting partners for all of our customers...
http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa/releases/press-kit-nissan-intelligent-mobility-at-ces

Highlights of the Video of the CES presentation at the link, IMO:

~38 minutes, the essential role of humans in supporting AV's, by using a remotely located human, BUT NOT relying on an on-board driver to take on this responsibility.

Makes perfect sense to me. What are your young kids, elderly parents (or you when you are taking a nap) expected do when your auto pilot demands someone grab the wheel?

~57 minutes, Importance of V-to Grid and V to Home capability to maximize the utility of BEVs.

Sounds like we'll be hearing a lot more about this in a few days at Detroit:

Nissan at 2017 North American International Auto Show
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=23214
 
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