GRA
Well-known member
Nothing grudging about it, Dave. I cheerfully agree that the car can work for many families, but that most of them won't consider it for the reasons I've previously stated.DaveinOlyWA said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
GM: 1 Million 30 MPG-Plus Vehicle Sales in 2012
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GRA
Well-known member
I'm not sure that's correct. There's a chart in the Feb. C/D or maybe it was MT comparing the sales rates of HEVs and BEVs/PHEVs over similar years (starting 2000 and 2008) and number of available models, and the HEVs are way ahead, year by year. Unfortunately it's not explicitly stated if this is U.S. sales only, or world.RegGuheert said:
I disagree - they need a TMS that heats as well as cools the battery, plus a well-insulated pack to make the car more viable in colder climates. Sure, the battery won't die from heat, but the range is so short when using lots of heat and defrost and driving on wet, snowy or icy roads that it just won't work for many people, and even if it does most won't accept the anxiety level. PHEVs are the answer for the moment in those conditions.RegGuheert said:
I'd love to see a battery that doesn't much care about temperature (hot OR cold), but don't expect it anytime soon.RegGuheert said:
RegGuheert
Well-known member
It's correct. Even ignoring 1997, LEAF outsold Prius during it's first two years worldwide and during its first two years in U.S. Here is a post by mirko with formatted data he got from Wikipedia: Time Magazine declares LEAF a flopGRA said:
mirko said:
You are using words like "many" and "most". I never claimed the LEAF would work for most people. I claimed the LEAF would work fine for about 10 million commuters in the U.S. today, namely those having a commute between about 20 and 40 miles. Do you really think it won't work for many people in this group?GRA said:
As far as battery TMS goes, I consider them to be a stopgap measure that will not last long in the history of EVs. I agree that the LEAFs current battery is not suited for Phoenix today without TMS, but that does not mean TMS is a good idea with a better battery solution.
High temperature batteries with 50% more capacity exist today (although I am unsure of the specific power). I don't know if Nissan plans to use that or similar technology in future LEAFs or not.GRA said:
cwerdna
Well-known member
Yeah, but during the first two years in the US, gas was very cheap compared to now at below $2/gallon. See http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. At some points, it was barely above $1/gallon.RegGuheert said:
As I posted at http://priuschat.com/threads/smart4two.45131/#post-593919" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;:
Someone (I think it was Car and Driver) that had a great graph of a few years showing unit sales vs. # of players in the market. For the longest time, Toyota and Honda were basically unchallenged in the hybrid market w/almost nobody else in the game. Now, unit sales are way up w/Toyota dominating hybrids but there are a LOT of players in the tiny BEV/PHEV market.
RegGuheert
Well-known member
Sure, but note the price differential between an EV and an ICEV is larger than between an HEV and an ICEV. That is one reason GM decided not to sell the EV1 back then.cwerdna said:
We purchased our 2003 Honda Civic Hybrid in April 2002. At that time, gasoline cost $1.65/ gallon around here. The HCH cost about $4000 more than an ICE Civic at that time and there was a $2000 federal tax credit in place, so you only had to recover about $2000 in fuel expenses to justify the purchase solely on cost. At the time, I calculated that at $2.00/gallon I would need to drive 100,000 miles to recover the extra cost.
We purchased our 2011 Nissan LEAF in March 2012. At that time gasoline cost about $3.25/gallon, which is about twice what it cost in 2002. The LEAF SL cost $35,000 on the road, which is about $12,000 more than an equivalently-equipped ICEV. There is a $7500 federal tax rebate in place, meaning we will have to recover about $4500 in fuel expenses to justify the purchase. If you do that calculation with $4.00/gallon average gasoline price and $0.10/kWh electricity, you will find that our purchase of the LEAF today is easier to justify than was our purchase of the HCH in 2002 since it will fully repay the extra up-front investment in fewer than 50,000 miles.
cwerdna
Well-known member
When you got your 03 HCH, there was a tax deduction in place, NOT a tax credit.
Tax credit didn't start until January 06. It was a $3150 tax credit on my 06 Prius. I specifically didn't want my car until after 12/31/05 because I wanted the $3150 tax credit, not the lame $2000 deduction.
Electricity in my ripoff part of CA is NOT $0.10/kwh. My bill on PG&E w/E-1 schedule (not TOU based) for the most recent bill I can view was $49.61 for 366 kwh w/taxes and fees. That's 13.55 cents/kwh. I was under my baseline and can't go any lower on my schedule unless I claim CARE (claiming I'm low income).
Try putting in the 95136 zip into http://www.pge.com/myhome/myaccount/charges/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, choosing no for CARE and putting in your usage. Then, compare your cost vs. PG&E's cost. The estimator is a bit too low since it doesn't include tax and fees. I'd be very curious for you to post the result.
A Bay Area Leafer helped me calculate how much "fueling" a Leaf would cost for me at http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=155519#p155519" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.
Tax credit didn't start until January 06. It was a $3150 tax credit on my 06 Prius. I specifically didn't want my car until after 12/31/05 because I wanted the $3150 tax credit, not the lame $2000 deduction.
Electricity in my ripoff part of CA is NOT $0.10/kwh. My bill on PG&E w/E-1 schedule (not TOU based) for the most recent bill I can view was $49.61 for 366 kwh w/taxes and fees. That's 13.55 cents/kwh. I was under my baseline and can't go any lower on my schedule unless I claim CARE (claiming I'm low income).
Try putting in the 95136 zip into http://www.pge.com/myhome/myaccount/charges/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, choosing no for CARE and putting in your usage. Then, compare your cost vs. PG&E's cost. The estimator is a bit too low since it doesn't include tax and fees. I'd be very curious for you to post the result.
A Bay Area Leafer helped me calculate how much "fueling" a Leaf would cost for me at http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=155519#p155519" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.
RegGuheert
Well-known member
You're right! It was a deduction from income on my tax form. That moves out the payback time for the HCH to about 160,000 miles at $2.00/gallon or about 130,000 miles in reality. That's probably not justified from a purely financial standpoint given that the batteries in the HCHs do not seem to last that long.cwerdna said:
Note that without any government subsidy the LEAF Will fully pay itself back after 125,000 miles at $4.00/gallon gas and $0.10/kWh electricity. That is much less than the 200,000 miles for the unsubsidized HCH in 2002. I don't know if our LEAF battery will last that long, but Stoaty predicts it will!
PV effectively caps electricity (which is EV fuel) costs wherever it is an option. You are only paying that much because you either cannot or choose not to install PV. Lifetime cost for grid-tied PV electricity in most of CA should be below $0.10/kWh WITHOUT any govenment incentives or TOU metering, just basic net metering.cwerdna said:
People in the PNW do not have as many solar resources, but they have some of the cheapest electricity in the U.S.
GRA
Well-known member
The C/D numbers definitely disagree. Unfortunately, they don't seem to have that article up on their website; it's in the Feb. 2013 issue, "Upfront" section titled 'The Spark is Gone'.RegGuheert said:
Yes, not because it won't work, but because it will never be given a chance to work. As I've said, mainstream consumers won't accept the price or the limitations. Now, increase the EPA range by 50% (100 miles being a psychological barrier, as Nissan's marketers well knew) and drop the price by a third (Nissan's priced the 'S' 20+% less than the cheapest Leaf last year) and mainstream consumers will be willing to take a look, and a relatively small but still useful number will buy. Boost the range by 100% and drop the price by half, and mainstream consumers will start buying in fairly large numbers. Triple the range and drop the price by 2/3rds, and they'll be beating on the doors of the dealers.RegGuheert said:
There are any number of exotic batteries that have been mentioned in the future battery technology thread, but we can't count on any of them to be commercialized. Battery R&D has always been slow, painful and expensive, so I count on nothing until it's on the market. In the meantime, TMS is the only feasible stopgap, barring a huge drop in battery prices.RegGuheert said:
RegGuheert
Well-known member
The Prius sales numbers are the Prius sales numbers, regardless of what is written in the February 2013 issue of Car and Driver.GRA said:
Here are some facts to consider:
- Both the Toyota Prius and the Nissan LEAF went on sale in December. If we ignore sales that first month, we can then compare full-year worldwide numbers starting in January, since numbers are typically tabulated by calendar year.
- Nissan sold as many LEAFS (probably slightly more) in the first TWO years of sales (2011-2012) than Toyota sold Prii in the first THREE years (1998-2000).
- Toyota did not sell their 100,000th Prius until the fifth full year of sales (2002).
I will predict:
- Nissan will sell more LEAFS in the first three years (2011-2013) than Toyota sold Prii in its first four years (1998-2001).
- Nissan will sell its 100,000th LEAF at least one year earlier than Toyota sold its 100,000th Prius. (Does anyone know the exact month Toyota sold the 100,000th Prius so that we can test this prediction?)
No argument those things would be great. But, again, I will point out that even without those things the LEAF is already on a better sales trajectory than the Prius was when it was new. The incremental improvement approach will grow the LEAF market steady.GRA said:
Will the LEAF continue to grow sales faster than the Prius grew its sales? Time will tell.
Fair enough. But the point is that the battery technology exists.GRA said:
Yes, TMS is a feasible stopgap. But there are drawbacks to that approach and many LEAF customers prefer the simpler approach. Andy Palmer stated at the Phoenix town hall meeting that Nissan has made a decision to stick with air cooling for the battery in the LEAF, at least for the near term. So this leaves an issue in place for hot climates like Phoenix and Palm Springs and elsewhere. Hopefully the wording of the new warranty and local media and word-of-mouth in those locales will help people to know that they should either lease the LEAF or look elsewhere for an EV until it can be made more suitable for those climates.
evnow
Well-known member
Difficult to compare Prius & Leaf worldwide sales numbers.
Prius sold only in Japan for a few years. So, if you just compare Japan numbers, Prius sold more. If you just compare US numbers, Prius sold more from second year (not sure when it went on sale the first year).
Prius sold only in Japan for a few years. So, if you just compare Japan numbers, Prius sold more. If you just compare US numbers, Prius sold more from second year (not sure when it went on sale the first year).
cwerdna
Well-known member
Yep. It is. http://john1701a.com/prius/prius-history.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; has some history. The model he refers to as Original is the NHW10 which was JDM only. It had a color LCD but not a touchscreen. Instead, it had some buttons sorta below the touchscreen. Some used NHW10s have ended up being exported to non-Japanese speaking countries where they drive on the left side of the road.evnow said:
The NHW11 which he calls Classic was the NHW11 (doesn't look much different on the outside) but was the first one available in the US.
The one he calls Iconic is the NHW20 which marked the beginning of the familiar hatchback design.
RegGuheert
Well-known member
Agreed, but that is part of the whole roll-out picture, IMO. Toyota chose to sell only in Japan while Nissan chose to manufacture only in Japan but sell globally.evnow said:
One thing interesting about the Prius sales is that they decreased every year from years two through five in Japan. I wonder why that was.
GRA
Well-known member
August, in the U.S.evnow said:
GRA
Well-known member
It appears that we are comparing apples and oranges. You are using worldwide Prius sales, and it appears that C/D is using (and I'm only interested in) _U.S._ sales of the Prius as well as all hybrids (and as of 2008), all BEV/PHEV. So, for 2000, there are the Prius and the Insight, while in 2008 only the Tesla Roadster was available here, then other vehicles were added each year.RegGuheert said:
Again, the Prius went on sale in the U.S. in August 2000 IIRR, with the Insight beating it by a month or so IIRC.RegGuheert said:
You can find the month when they sold the millionth worldwide as well as in the U.S. in the Wiki article, but I don't know where to find the 100,000th.RegGuheert said:
Again, I'm only interested inthe U.S. market. Our fuel prices, tax and incentive structures, driving demographics etc. differ so much from Japan and Europe that I believe that info is of minimal value as to how the cars will do here.RegGuheert said:
Of course there are drawbacks to a TMS, but at the moment it's far cheaper than a bigger battery in maintaining range over the long term and in various climates. So far there appears to be no indication that Nissan is going to stop selling the Leaf in hot (or very cold) climates, or make an effort to educate potential customers to the issues. We can expect the denouement this summer, when hundreds if not thousands of Leafs start losing bars.RegGuheert said:
DaveinOlyWA
Well-known member
cant compare the Prius to the LEAF. the Prius is ultimately a gas powered car with all the range advantages of a gas powered car. the LEAF is electric and its simply not the same thing.
Nissan did not start selling the LEAF with 130,000 charging stations already in the ground so its not anywhere near a fair comparison. there are major philosophical changes in attitude and perceptions that need to be overcome first.
The Prius was a change no doubt, but it was only "moving forward" on an existing path of increasing gasoline powered efficiency. the LEAF has no path. its very much machete time to fight for every inch right now.
Nissan did not start selling the LEAF with 130,000 charging stations already in the ground so its not anywhere near a fair comparison. there are major philosophical changes in attitude and perceptions that need to be overcome first.
The Prius was a change no doubt, but it was only "moving forward" on an existing path of increasing gasoline powered efficiency. the LEAF has no path. its very much machete time to fight for every inch right now.
cwerdna
Well-known member
Some quick Googling for site:toyota.com 100,000 prius sold turned up a PDF at http://pressroom.toyota.com/lexus/toyota+3+million+hybrids.download" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; that saysGRA said:
(2002)
RWatkins
Active member
Comments to this story had a link to an interesting PR with info on SAE single-port CCS EV charger and anticipated charging infrastructure in US.GRA said:
Edit: Guess the CSS isn't really news. I'm just getting caught up to speed on things and found this interesting.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/volkswagen-group-america-eaton-unveil-130000429.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
RegGuheert
Well-known member
To me this is what makes the comparisons interesting. As you say, the hurdles for EV adoption are higher than those which existed for hybrid adoption. But there are important similarities, and I believe that hybrids paved the "mental" way for consumers to be more open to EVs. Specifically, hybrids were the first mainstream vehicles with electric propulsion systems included. Also, the hybrid sale was initially made to "green" buyers, but ultimately it's success came about because it offered a way to pay more up-front for a vehicle and then recover that cost over the life of the car. EVs are these two things in spades. The initial outlay differential is larger, but the payback is faster (fewer miles) today for EVs than a decade earlier for hybrids, as I've shown earlier.DaveinOlyWA said:
The other important similarity that I see is that Nissan is not meeting their sales targets and I'm quite certain that Totota did not, either. (IMO, there is no way that Toyota was expecting falling sales in Japan for four consecutive years!) But even though sales targets are not met, neither company is discouraged, apparently because they believe in their vision. I think this last point is the important one, as everyone is watching to see if this is yet another tepid venture into the electric vehicle world or whether it is the real thing. Nissan, like Toyota before them, is stating to the world that this is real.
Sorry, but I see many parallels here and while you cannot make direct apples-to-apples comparisons with the Prius, you can see that Nissan has managed to sell more worldwide than Toyota did, albeit with a different go-to-market strategy. I'll say it again: the product, as it is, is the right one and the time is also right. I will continue to follow this comparison to see how it stands up against the Prius sales.
Here are a couple more predictions:
- The Nissan LEAF will outsell the Toyota Prius in Japan in years 3, 4 and 5 after introduction (2000-2002 for the Prius and 2013-2015 for the LEAF). Does anyone think this is NOT a fair comparison?
- The Nissan LEAF will outsell the Toyota Prius worldwide during the first five years after introduction (1998-2002 for the Prius and 2011-2015 for the LEAF)
DaveinOlyWA
Well-known member
RegGuheert said:
In my heart, I am with you step by step. But realism soaks in as well and the facts are the EV does not have the same level of support "governmentally" or structurally that a gas-based Prius did.
the only real hurdle the Prius had was price and a bit on the looks which is very well known issues in the auto industry. other than that, its "strangeness" was basically cool new tech
Right now, TaylorSF is having issues with his commute due to winter range reductions which is requiring him to charge both coming and going to work. Problem is the QC (Tumwater) on his route is 80% of the way towards work. So coming home, if using the same station he has to charge 30+ minutes because he still has so far to go and his SOC will be pretty high.
There is a Fife station that is slow to open (hence lack of support) if it was open. his SOC would be fairly low by the time he got there because it about 75% of the commute going home and 10 minutes would be more than enough to get him what he needed...
so a dilemma caused by lack of infrastructure. he is one example we know of which means there are dozens or hundreds with the same issue. The Prius had no issues finding gas stations. BIG DIFFERENCE...
To top it off, TaylorSF lives dead center in one of the most advanced EV public charging areas. most of the country is years away from where we are now.
I will have to say one thing; Nissan's decision to rush QC's out to the dealerships across the country is by far the best move they have made since the announcement of the LEAF nearly 4 years ago.
**edit** as far as sales targets not being met. I think I have to dispute that claim. Like the LEAF in the early days, there were no Priuses on the lot to walk in, test drive and then take home.
My first Prius was ordered from a catalog (one that had horrible representations of the actual color of the car) on Thanksgiving weekend of 2003 and delivered on the last day of June in 2004 more than 7 months later. That makes it hard for me to believe that sales goals were not met
RegGuheert
Well-known member
My point is simply that there is no way Toyota's sales plan for the Prius in Japan looked like this:DaveinOlyWA said:
Code:
+--------------+
| Prius sales |
| (thousands) |
+------+-------+
| Year | Japan |
+------+-------+
| 1997 | 0.3 |
| 1998 | 17.7 |
| 1999 | 15.2 |
| 2000 | 12.5 |
| 2001 | 11.0 |
| 2002 | 6.7 |
+------+-------+
