How should Nissan respond to dropping capacity?

jspearman · Jul 19, 2012

OrientExpress said:
Now here is a poo-storm

One guy who lives in the desert that has driven his car a little bit more that once around the world in 13 months, and it still runs fine except he has to "fill-up" more often, and 30+ other desert dwellers that also have to fill-up more often than when their car was new is not.

[MOD NOTE: Cut the swearing]

Dear Orient Express, you might consider this a better use of your time, and would also be serving your country:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2012/07/19/viral_peace_plans_to_combat_terrorism_by_trolling_jihadi_forums_.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

shrink · Jul 19, 2012

jspearman said:
Dear Orient Express, you might consider this a better use of your time, and would also be serving your country:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2012/07/19/viral_peace_plans_to_combat_terrorism_by_trolling_jihadi_forums_.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

+1

If she continues to insist "filling up" an EV more often - a process that typically takes several hours - is no big deal, then - as I have repeatedly implored her - switch cars with a lower mileage Phoenician LEAF with at least one missing capacity bar. I think there are three with less than 10,000 miles on the list. She has 15,000+ miles. Since she is the supreme rationalist, she simply cannot go wrong.

I don't even have a LEAF with a missing capacity bar to swap anymore, but I will gladly contribute to the cost of shipping her car.

dhanson865 · Jul 19, 2012

Herm said:
Note that this is still within the topic.

Lets say Nissan converts all 400 Arizona Leafs to leases, then in a couple of year these 400 cars could be resold used in temperate weather places such as Seattle for about $12k, would you buy one with a range of 50 miles and good for perhaps 7 years?.. by then replacement batteries should be cheap.

I'd love to buy a Leaf with 1 bar battery loss for $10,000, say two bars lost at $9,000, 3 bars lost at $8,000. I'd use it here in TN (get an evseupgrade and not worry about permanently mounting a L2 charger in the garage). My commute is only 16 miles each way and there are electric only spots with plugs for the L1 at my work.

I'd get to retire a 1998 Saturn with 120,000 miles on it that probably gets 35 MPG and switch over to a very small charge increase on my electric bill. I'd have to come up with the cash or take out a loan for the leaf so it'd be a sunk cost to replace the Saturn.

I'd be much happier driving a leaf with 75% battery capacity and a fully working climate control than dealing with a 14 year old car with AC that's weak. The creature comforts in a leaf would outweigh any hassle with charging daily vs getting gas once every 10 days.

The alternative if the Saturn dies on me and a used leaf isn't cheap enough is for me to buy another Gen II Prius (2005-2009) and I'm sure I could do that for $9000 as there are several for sale around that price right now.

But that is all today, If the first AZ leases don't end for another year or two that gives the used prius more time to drop in price.

Which is worth more a 2005 Prius that gets 55 MPG and has a range of 500+ miles and will continue to have a 450+ mile range even as it gets really old or a 2011 Leaf that has a degraded battery and has a range of 75 miles but the range will continue to drop?

To be clear I'm not saying any of this to be trolling. I would love to have a Leaf and a Prius side by side in my garage. I really want the Leaf to succeed and to me Nissan needs to make it's early adopters feel like they didn't get a worse deal than buying a Prius.

So you do the math I know your cents per mile in the leaf are way lower than my cents per mile in the Prius, how much resale value for a 1, 2, 3 bar lost leaf would you need to feel you didn't lose out vs buying a Prius?

Herm · Jul 19, 2012

A Prius holds its value too well :shock:

scottf200 · Jul 20, 2012

TonyW had a nice summary in another thread for those that are not reading all 3+ of them.

TonyWilliams said:
Herm said:

We can also look at the $7500 Fed tax credit as an inducement to buy expensive and flaky batteries.

Click to expand...

They aren't flaky. The guy in the Seattle area (where they are experiencing historically lower temps, while the rest of the USA bakes) has over 40,000 miles has a VERY strong battery. It's also never seen real heat.

There's nothing wrong with the battery in moderate temps, and moderate use. Which makes the case for battery TMS all the more pressing. Elon Musk (Tesla, SpaceX, PayPal) thought Nissan was crazy to offer the car without TMS. We thought they had magic.

I think Nissan still has a chance to save the day, by offering either a new battery or a different car, to affected owners. Honestly, I doubt they will, however. It will open them up to lawsuits (yes, they no doubt will get them anyway) which makes any logical outcome less likely. When their corporate back is against the wall, they will do the conservative "all is normal" all the way to quiet, Non-Disclosure-Agreement, back door settlement with a few owners. Any class action lawsuit settlement is so many years down the road, as to effectively be a non-event to a huge corporation like Nissan.

All will continue to be "normal" once the small number of "hot cars" have been silenced (by small, I mean that out of 30,000 cars, only a teeny, tiny number of the most vocal and aggressive "hot car" complainers will get an NDA settlement).

That's business, folks. The LEAF will go on much the same, as planned, throughout the world. They may be re-evaluating TMS for a 2015 or later LEAF with entirely new batteries, but the basic formula won't change before then. Car companies don't have that kind of flexibility. Sales may tank because of mainstream bad press (far beyond snippets on local Phoenix TV stations) as they did for Volt with Faux Noose on their *ss. In that scenario, I can foresee a shutdown of the Tennesee plant to LEAF production, which will then only make gas burners. If Ghosen leaves Renault/Nissan, the LEAF will get cancelled in that scenario.

I feel bad for folks who I predict will get stuck with a seriously diminished car. But, I still think its a pretty good car for moderate climates (not too hot or too cold).

DaveinOlyWA · Jul 20, 2012

Herm said:
Note that this is still within the topic.

Lets say Nissan converts all 400 Arizona Leafs to leases, then in a couple of year these 400 cars could be resold used in temperate weather places such as Seattle for about $12k, would you buy one with a range of 50 miles and good for perhaps 7 years?.. by then replacement batteries should be cheap.

have to +1 what i assume to be a resounding Yes to your question.

50 miles is all the range i wanted to begin with, which is why i got the LEAF. the fact that it does more is a great thing that i have taken advantage of but 50 is fine. would i buy it for $12,000?? oh ya!! without a second of hesitation but they wouldnt go for that cheap simply because market forces would probably put a $5,000 premium on the price

reposted from FB because i am lazy

Passed 19,000 miles on my LEAF and have used less than $500 in hydro juice. My Prius has burned thru $1464.19 in Dino Juice which is actully quite good since the LEAF was kind enough to take on all those very short inefficient winter trips the Prius hates. But since the LEAF does not know the meaning of "inefficiency" it did it without complaint. add in two $75 oil changes for the Prius and we now have saved over $1000 driving the LEAF. Now for those you who replaced a car that did not get 49.57 mpg, you *might* have done better

now, i can only guess as to what my Prius mileage would have been if it was still doing those "3 mile RT trips to Safeway" in the dead of winter which it obviously does not do...

iow, people complain about the LEAF's price simply because they are too lazy to make the numbers work for them. you might sell a degraded LEAF for $17,000- $18,000 and it would still be a bargain

OrientExpress · Jul 20, 2012

Lets say Nissan converts all 400 Arizona Leafs to leases, then in a couple of year these 400 cars could be resold used in temperate weather places such as Seattle for about $12k, would you buy one with a range of 50 miles and good for perhaps 7 years?.. by then replacement batteries should be cheap.

All lease returns from all manufacturers are always mechanically reconditioned, so you can be assured that any lease return LEAF would have a reconditioned battery pack in it before it left the wholesale auction.

scottf200 · Jul 20, 2012

OrientExpress said:
Lets say Nissan converts all 400 Arizona Leafs to leases, then in a couple of year these 400 cars could be resold used in temperate weather places such as Seattle for about $12k, would you buy one with a range of 50 miles and good for perhaps 7 years?.. by then replacement batteries should be cheap.

Click to expand...

All lease returns from all manufacturers are always mechanically reconditioned, so you can be assured that any lease return LEAF would have a reconditioned battery pack in it before it left the wholesale auction.

Does a BEV battery technically/legally fall under "mechanically reconditioned". Wonder what sort of certificate or proof will be provided. Clearly the printoffs from the dealers with 5 stars do not prove anything as shrink and others have clearly shown. I think many will not touch a previously leased LEAF with 100' pole. Proof of the cars usage location would seem to be important as well. There will be scrupulous sellers (private and dealers) that buy cheap ones from the hot areas and sell them in the cool areas. Not a Nissan thing but a human/car_sales_person thing.

ztanos · Jul 20, 2012

OrientExpress said:
Now here is a Feces-fire

One guy who lives in the desert that has driven his car a little bit more that once around the world in 13 months, and it still runs fine except he has to "fill-up" more often, and 30+ other desert dwellers that also have to fill-up more often than when their car was new is not.

Definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

Why would you keep continuing to use this argument when nobody seems to be swayed by it. Adapt, resistance is futile... if < 1 ohm!!

mkjayakumar · Jul 20, 2012

There will be scrupulous sellers (private and dealers) that buy cheap ones from the hot areas and sell them in the cool areas. Not a Nissan thing but a human/car_sales_person thing.

But then if I get a GID count after charging to 100%, and if that shows x% reduction from 281, shouldn't that be good enough for me to arrive at a purchase price, whether it has been a 'hot car' or not. .

That brings up another question: For every GID less than 281, how much should the resale price depreciate?

If I were to take a shot at this, for every 1 GID loss resale price drops by $50

Examples:

A Leaf thats been driven in North west with 260 Gids would depreciate by $1050.
A Leaf thats been driven in South west with 200 Gids would depreciate by $4050

And on top of that we need to factor in depreciation for mileage and condition of the car. As long as people factor in their GID count in their resale price calculations, the buyer should feel he got a fair price.

thankyouOB · Jul 20, 2012

ztanos said:
OrientExpress said:

Now here is a Feces-fire

One guy who lives in the desert that has driven his car a little bit more that once around the world in 13 months, and it still runs fine except he has to "fill-up" more often, and 30+ other desert dwellers that also have to fill-up more often than when their car was new is not.

Click to expand...

Definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

Why would you keep continuing to use this argument when nobody seems to be swayed by it. Adapt, resistance is futile... if < 1 ohm!!

you cant tell who is swayed by it. you can only see the folks who choose to post about it.
just sayin'

Stoaty · Jul 20, 2012

mkjayakumar said:
That brings up another question: For every GID less than 281, how much should the resale price depreciate?

If I were to take a shot at this, for every 1 GID loss resale price drops by $50

And on top of that we need to factor in depreciation for mileage and condition of the car. As long as people factor in their GID count in their resale price calculations, the buyer should feel he got a fair price.

I can just see it now on the wholesale price lists

:

Mileage depreciation: __________
Condition depreciation: ___________

Total non-Gid depreciation: ___________

Gid depreciation: __________

Total depreciation: ___________

OrientExpress · Jul 20, 2012

scottf200 said:
Does a BEV battery technically/legally fall under "mechanically reconditioned". Wonder what sort of certificate or proof will be provided.

As with all manufacturer's reconditioned lease return resales, there is a clear description of all of the things that are inspected and reconditioned. I have no doubt that a lease return resale would have the same description that is specific to a BEV.

surfingslovak · Jul 20, 2012

thankyouOB said:
you cant tell who is swayed by it. you can only see the folks who choose to post about it.
just sayin'

To say it with someone else's words: "Remember it's the vocal minority, not the silent majority that affects change."

OrientExpress · Jul 20, 2012

mkjayakumar · Jul 20, 2012

Remember: don't feed the troll.

thankyouOB · Jul 20, 2012

he is not a troll, by any definition of it.
if you want to police something, go over there to the gun topic.

that said, Nissan should buy back the Leafs with degraded packs as a research and PR expense.
they need to study these batteries anyway. that is the best PR move.

Maybe, they will offer to replace packs so they can study them. But the best research move is to ask you to keep driving as part of the study. then take it back later.

DaveinOlyWA · Jul 20, 2012

i think buying the cars back and selling them at a discount in WA or somewhere heat is not an issue is a great idea. this allows people who normally would not be able to afford an EV to get into one. even one with a 50 mile range would more than fill "someone's" needs and may hook them enough to eventually trade it in on a new LEAF.

Stoaty · Jul 20, 2012

OrientExpress said:
As I have said earlier, this is an edge condition situation, and that if there is an issue, it will be found and the issue will be corrected.

I see you are suggesting that there may not be an issue. Can you explain exactly how that could be (explanation should fit already known information)? Perhaps there is a conspiracy in Phoenix by formerly dedicated Leaf owners to undermine Nissan's progress in EV? The level of battery capacity loss is normal? How do you know the issue will be "corrected"?

Their LEAF starts every time, and continues to give its owner everything its got.

No one is arguing that point. The problem here is that some Leafs have less and less to "give".

"All Leafs are created equal, but some are more equal than others."

padamson1 · Jul 20, 2012

As someone who is fortunate enough to not live in in a climate where I would be a victim of this issue, it dismays me to see basically no action on Nissan's part to alleviate owners' concerns. At the same time I am heartened to hear some positive suggestions for how Nissan should handle the issue appearing on the thread.

Given the whole Faux-news led attack on Chevy Volt 'fire' myths that are still being promulgated as facts to this day, if Nissan is really serious about EVs, they should get out ahead of the issue before it becomes viral. Personally I think a proactive message ("We've observed unexpected results in hot climates such as Arizona & Texas, so we are going to work with those owners to solve the problem.") coupled some sort of restitution for those who've lost capacity would go a long way. The restitution could be tricky, at a minimum it should be something that gets the owners what they expected from the vehicle. I would prefer an offer to help them become part of the solution, e.g. adding instrumentation to replacement batteries and working with the owners to insure the problem is fixed. The costs to such an action can be written off and can be cited in the future as source of customer commitment (which is priceless).

While it is becoming rarer in this day of no-frills sales, a company that shows that the customer comes first almost always wins out the end.

How should Nissan respond to dropping capacity?

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