DaveinOlyWA
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Sun May 06, 2012 8:19 am

so if its $10 B for a 1000 MW nuke that be?? $10/watt installed.

or you could do solar at $6-10 / watt installed but solar is only effective for 25-30% of its rated output due to clouds and stuff (info received yesterday from 2 different solar installers at Fair yesterday) which means the "effective" cost could be as high as $40/watt. but this is residential install in WA State which has a TON of incentives including a sell back rate of 54 cents/Kwh (no that is NOT a misprint) for excessive power generated.

i am assuming a larger project would reduce its per unit cost due to volume, so we might lower that to $30/watt.

so Nukes appear to be much cheaper, but

Solar is scale-able, much quicker install turn on, so benefits can be had much faster as opposed to spending Billions years in advance for future benefits.

solar maintenance is lower, no "fuel" costs to consider or disposal costs. cant add disposal costs to overall cost of nukes since this is a problem we have chosen to put off, so no one really knows how much money is added to the nukes bottom line.

solar needs a lot more space, but we do have some of that available, albeit not in the best locations for power distribution which makes me think that we need to address power distribution on the grid and its ability to move power longer distances first before we start on a multi year, multi billion project that probably has a multi year vetting process to negotiate first.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 11,987 miles, 485 GIDs, 37.6 kwh 110.89 Ahr , SOH 96.00, Hx 115.22
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klapauzius
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Sun May 06, 2012 9:35 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote: but this is residential install in WA State which has a TON of incentives including a sell back rate of 54 cents/Kwh (no that is NOT a misprint) for excessive power generated.


The 54 cents are for gross production. Which sounds like a lot, but this is for all WA made systems so you cant get cheap deals. I figure with the federal 30% tax credit and the 54 cents/kWH produced, I will recover my investment by the time the incentives run out in 2020. So in 2020 I will have paid $0 for the whole 4 kW array (minus interest not earned over that period, but I still have the panels, which I expect will produce maybe until 2040).

Over the lifetime of the system this makes it a reasonable long term investment. If energy prices go above 25 c/kWH (which I am certain they will, eventually even here in WA), and panel prices come further down, residential Solar will make sense for everyone, even here in WA.

If we assume a residential PV system produces for 30 years, in WA its ~ 1000 kWH per kW installed, then you can figure that
at a cost e.g. $ 6000 per kW installed you get 30000 kWH or 20 c/kWH for the lifetime of the system. In any sunnier location, this would be even less. I bet in places like CA, AZ or FL it is even now almost on par with utility generated power.
Last edited by klapauzius on Sun May 06, 2012 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.

DaveinOlyWA
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Sun May 06, 2012 10:56 am

klapauzius wrote:
DaveinOlyWA wrote: but this is residential install in WA State which has a TON of incentives including a sell back rate of 54 cents/Kwh (no that is NOT a misprint) for excessive power generated.


The 54 cents are for gross production. Which sounds like a lot, but this for all WA made systems so you cant get cheap deals. I figure with the federal 30% tax credit and the 54 cents/kWH produced, I will recover my investment by the time the incentives run out in 2020. So in 2020 I will have paid $0 for the whole 4 kW array (minus interest not earned over that period, but I still have the panels, which I expect will produce maybe until 2040).

Over the lifetime of the system this makes it reasonable long term investment. If energy prices go above 25 c/kWH (which I am certaint they will, eventually even here in WA), and panel prices come further down, residential Solar will make sense for everyone, even here in WA.

If we assume a residential PV system produces for 30 years, in WA its ~ 1000 kWH per kW installed, then you can figure that
at a cost e.g. $ 6000 per kW installed you get 30000 kWH or 20 c/kWH for the lifetime of the system. In any sunnier location, this would be even less. I bet in places like CA, AZ or FL it is even now almost on par with utility generated power.



ya, i know a few people in CA with solar and some are getting screwed on the sell back rates

as far as WA; here is where EVs really pay off. there is a guy in Oly who charges 2 EVs and pays tier one rates for them because he charges at night but still gets premium rates for what he sells back from production during the day.

in winter, its nearly a wash, but summer he really banks the money. now granted WA panels are expensive more than triple the cost of some reported here, but its really all relative. WA panels cost more but get bigger rates on payback. there are also other tiers available other than WA panels + WA installer. you could get less back for panels from elsewhere with WA installer but most felt the payback period was not nearly as attractive.

now, what he just finished doing and not sure how the math works because he had nothing but general info but he got a license to install solar to reduce the cost of his system (he just increased the size of what he had) but did an expansion dirt cheap. he wanted to match his existing panels which are not made but was able to find someone who still had some left.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 11,987 miles, 485 GIDs, 37.6 kwh 110.89 Ahr , SOH 96.00, Hx 115.22
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AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Sun May 06, 2012 12:30 pm

Herm wrote:
AndyH wrote:Nuke folks - this is a problem/solution thread. If you think that nuclear technology is a useful solution, then feel free to share it - but it's got to be a real solution, not simply a duplication of past mistakes.


Andy, no one is building soviet era Chernobil reactors anymore, the new stuff is far far safer... and less than 40 people died at Chernobil, 4000 more may get cancer from all the radiation.. (those numbers are off the top of my head so dont hold me to them) and that was a horrible accident with a naked core actually burning in air.

Thanks for weighing in Herm! Please don't try to pull the point off-course though. ;) The message in the graphic is that when a problem does happen with a nuke plant it tends to have far-reaching effects. Yes, Chernobyl was not a 'current tech' plant, but we haven't yet had a couple of decades to analyze the fallout and damage from the 'modern' Fukushima disaster yet. And the plant just approved for Georgia doesn't yet include safety improvements from "lessons apparently not yet learned from Fukushima."

I'm not suggesting that current plants be taken off-line (unless there's a real need to do so), but I don't think we can build enough new plants in time to make a meaningful dent in our CO2 emissions. I'm not anti-nuke, but am anti-blowing-smoke-for-the-sake-of-artificially-propping-pet-projects. :)

Herm wrote:I have no idea how many people died building all those solar panels but I bet a lot since most of the power in China used to build them comes from coal. I'm not saying that solar panel factories should only be powered by solar but dont assume their innocence. The expense of solar panels also means that people starve and die of disease due to lack of funds.. how much money did the Germans divert from famine relief in Africa to build their infrastructure?

Ok, I think this is quite a stretch, but let's 'go there' for a moment. ;) Are you suggesting that all solar panels are made in China? That's got folks in solar plants in the US and Europe rolling their eyes. I agree that burning coal is not a clean power conversion system, I suspect we can factor it out though considering that it takes plenty of energy to build gas, coal, nuclear, and geothermal power systems. Care to run the numbers on how much energy it takes to make the cement used for a nuke plant containment building (or how much CO2 is released just making the cement)?

http://www.buildinggreen.com/auth/article.cfm/1993/3/1/Cement-and-Concrete-Environmental-Considerations/
Cement production is one of the most energy intensive of all industrial manufacturing processes. Including direct fuel use for mining and transporting raw materials, cement production takes about six million Btus for every ton of cement (Table 2). ... The industry’s heavy reliance on coal leads to especially high emission levels of CO 2, nitrous oxide, and sulphur, among other pollutants. A sizeable portion of the electricity used is also generated from coal.


Check the Wiki pages with an open mind for a minute or two. Those problems - the deaths, contaminated ground water, accidental leaks to the atmosphere, etc. were not about Chernobyl. ;) (And are quite likely only the info easy to gather - care to guess how many military issues are classified?) And those are only the 'problems' we're not in denial about because the fuel cycle is still an 'externality' and as Dave's already highlighted, we still don't have a clue about how to handle the spent fuel.

I have broken Evergreen string ribbon PV cells in my dining room. They're not bothering me, my son, or my cat - and aren't likely to anytime soon. :lol:

Herm wrote:We need nukes, solar and wind when we stop using fossil fuels to generate electricity .. I dont think fusion will ever amount to much.
Maybe you're right about fusion, maybe not - but we don't need it now - we have all the tech we need today with ZERO R&D.
Herm wrote: Wind is useless without backup, storage or continental wide grids.
Others seem to disagree with you about wind's usefulness without storage (though it will be an improvement when it happens). But since we already have a continental wide grid, and we have grid-scale storage in use today, I'm thinking we're golden here! :D

Grid-scale battery storage:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/03/100325-presidio-texas-battery/
The hoped-for remedy is a battery, a Texas-size battery, which could eventually end up playing an important role in wider use of green power generation such as solar and wind. The U.S. $25 million system, which is now charging and is set to be dedicated April 8, will be the largest use of this energy storage technology in the United States.

American Electric Power (AEP) first tested the NaS system for stationary power at its Dolan Technology Center near Columbus, Ohio, and deployed it in a demonstration project in Gahanna, Ohio, in 2002. Since then, AEP has installed four NaS battery systems in West Virginia, Indiana, and Ohio.


Here's one way to use wind power to provide base-load power (without grid storage):
http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/winds/aj07_jamc.pdf
A solution to improve wind power reliability is interconnected wind power. In other words, by linking multiple wind farms together it is possible to improve substantially the overall performance of the interconnected system (i.e., array) when compared with that of any individual wind farm. The idea is that, while wind speed could be calm at a given location, it will be noncalm somewhere else in the aggregate array


Again - if anyone thinks that new nuclear power should be part of the solution, I'd like to see a rough guestimate of how much new generation capacity we can get in service by 2030 and 2050 - experts suggest those dates are important targets for leveling and then reducing atmospheric CO2 levels. I'd like to see if it's possible, and I don't know enough about how to manufacture the estimate. Thanks!
Last edited by AndyH on Sun May 06, 2012 9:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Sun May 06, 2012 12:49 pm

Solution...

Convert Lawns to Gardens

In his 1983 Permaculture Design Course in Stanley, Tasmania, Dr. Bill Mollison 'connected the dots' between power demand, water use, and American lawns.

If you think the water on lawns is not to be a concerned affair, that may usually cost 20% of the total utility power of the region. That would be a fair figure to maintain lawns, 20% of your power is used in pumping water to maintain lawns. Lawns use 44% of the total water used in your home. If you think that is a slight thing, 13% of all energy is produced by atomic power - you make the next step yourself. Lawns cost you atomic power.

Converting lawns to food gives us an instant energy savings. Productive gardens use 1/25 the water of an American lawn, thus saving a precious and dwindling resource. Fresh food is higher quality, grown without pesticides or herbicides, and doesn't need to be driven across the country for delivery.

More info:
http://www.seedsofchange.com/GrowingCommunities.aspx
http://www.localharvest.org/csa/
http://www.organicgardening.com/learn-and-grow/goodbye-grass-hello-garden?page=0,1



One of many examples of grass-roots action:
Cincinnati Permaculture Guild
http://cincypcguild.blogspot.com/
Mycology for food production and Bio-remediation
Ecology and Native Lore
Organic food production
Design of small scale sites
Small-scale Forestry
Aquaculture
Urban Communal Living

"The stupid become extinct."-Bill Mollison
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AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Mon May 07, 2012 5:29 pm

Not a Solution - Nuclear Power

Sorry, nuke folks. This one shocked me a bit.

http://www.buildup.eu/publications/21162
The contribution of nuclear power to climate protection is relativized when taking into account the declining ore grades: Nuclear power can be referred to as “low-carbon” when the ore grade are high (0,1 bis 2 %). However, ore grades around 0,01 % make the CO2 emissions increase up to 210 g CO2/kWhel. Those emission values are still lower than those of coal or oil (600–1200 g/kWhel), but significantly higher than for wind (2,8–7,4 g/kWhel), hydropower (17–22 g/kWhel) and photovoltaics (19–59 g/kWhel). Moreover it would be costly and slow to use nuclear power as means for reducing green house gas emission; it would take decades, until a net reduction of GHG would have occurred (Pasztor 1991; Findlay 2010). The CO2 avoiding costs of nuclear power are than for any other possible technology except traditional coal fired power plants. Wind power stations and cogeneration of heat and power are 1,5 times more cost-effective in reducing CO2 than nuclear power, energy efficiency measures are 10 times more cost-effective.


The report looked at the state of current uranium mines, ore quality, and needs of reactors put into service today and concluded that most new plants couldn't even be fueled through their entire life with current known uranium reserves, and that the use of more difficult to mine ores results in a net CO2 output HIGHER than natural gas power plants.

Who knew it would be better for the environment to use NG rather than fission? :shock:


Then there are the 'externalities'...
Further problems of nuclear power generation remain unsolved:
- Accident liability is unsolved. Worldwide, nuclear power plants are legally exempt from the liability for catastrophic accidents.
- Health risks from radiation of nuclear power plants cannot be excluded. In Germany, a study conducted by the German Deutschen Kinderkrebsregister (German Paediatric Cancer Registry) proves increased leucemia rates for children in the surroundings of nuclear power plants. (Kaatsch et al. 2007).
- While the Operationable uranium resources will not last longer than this century, the highly radioactive waste has to be stored safely for thousands of years. No storage concept was developed yet for the 245.000 tons of spent fuel elements nuclear power generated already worldwide.
- Nuclear power used for electricity generation is the biggest driver of proliferation of fissile material. Without nuclear power generation, proliferation attempts could be identified undisputedly, because each effort to acquire fissile material would clearly serve military purposes.
- Nuclear power leads to higher electricity prices, because direct and indirect subsidies cover up the enormous costs of nuclear energy. Worldwide no reactor was built, where private investors would have carried the financial risk. If nuclear power in a liberalised market would actually lead to low electricity prices, it should not be a problem to find private investment to build new reactors.
- Nuclear power is a high-risk technology due to the risks connected with it. However, in connection with the need of protecting the climate, this energy form is also called “lowcarbon”.


Note and request: I don't consider this to be a final answer in any way, nor am I in any position to declare anything one way or another. If you have better information and/or a better way to interpret the existing information then PLEASE bring it forward! Thank you !
"The stupid become extinct."-Bill Mollison
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AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Mon May 07, 2012 7:54 pm

DaveinOlyWA wrote:... solar needs a lot more space, but we do have some of that available, albeit not in the best locations for power distribution which makes me think that we need to address power distribution on the grid and its ability to move power longer distances first before we start on a multi year, multi billion project that probably has a multi year vetting process to negotiate first.

I don't have national-level or grid-scale experience and am working toward off-grid, so I'm probably not looking at the same problem as you. Conservation/insulation/landscaping, etc. can bring building energy demand down. Building scale generation (whether wind, solar, combined heat/power, etc.) can offset or cancel that building's load on the grid. How might a future grid evolve if a significant number of residential and light industrial buildings were fairly close to net zero?

Will 12,000 rooftop acres in LA, CA lead to 5.5 gW of PV?
http://www.labusinesscouncil.org/online_documents/2012/12000-Acres-of-Rooftop-Solar-Potential-in-LA-20120426.pdf
Wal-Mart Rooftop Solar:
http://inhabitat.com/walmarts-100th-solar-power-installation-gets-switched-on-in-colorado/walmart-solar-colorado-3/
Texas Grocery Efficiency
http://blog.rmi.org/texas_grocer_slashes_energy_use
- High-efficiency refrigeration systems—saves up to 18 percent of the store’s total electricity use.
- Skylights, and high-efficiency interior and exterior lighting—saves 12 percent.
- HVAC efficiency: chilled water, efficient fans and ductwork, desiccant dehumidifier—saves 10 percent.
- Radiant heating and cooling—saves 6 percent.
- Superinsulated walls, tight construction—saves 3 percent.
- Greatly reduced infiltration at entrances (vestibules)—saves 3 percent.
"The stupid become extinct."-Bill Mollison
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AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Thu May 10, 2012 12:03 am

"The stupid become extinct."-Bill Mollison
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AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Thu May 10, 2012 12:31 am

Solution

Read the Constitution and her Amendments. Learn your rights. And then make sure you stand up for them anytime one is diminished.

PS - from now on, I hope you'll recognize that anyone in the media that suggests the Occupy movement doesn't have a goal or focus might be seeing the movement from their point of view (or their bosses'), rather than from the protesters' point of view.

http://attheheartofanoccupation.blogspot.com/

http://www.nycga.net/resources/declaration/
Declaration of the Occupation of New York City

This document was accepted by the NYC General Assembly on September 29, 2011

As we gather together in solidarity to express a feeling of mass injustice, we must not lose sight of what brought us together. We write so that all people who feel wronged by the corporate forces of the world can know that we are your allies.

As one people, united, we acknowledge the reality: that the future of the human race requires the cooperation of its members; that our system must protect our rights, and upon corruption of that system, it is up to the individuals to protect their own rights, and those of their neighbors; that a democratic government derives its just power from the people, but corporations do not seek consent to extract wealth from the people and the Earth; and that no true democracy is attainable when the process is determined by economic power. We come to you at a time when corporations, which place profit over people, self-interest over justice, and oppression over equality, run our governments. We have peaceably assembled here, as is our right, to let these facts be known.

They have taken our houses through an illegal foreclosure process, despite not having the original mortgage.
They have taken bailouts from taxpayers with impunity, and continue to give Executives exorbitant bonuses.
They have perpetuated inequality and discrimination in the workplace based on age, the color of one’s skin, sex, gender identity and sexual orientation.
They have poisoned the food supply through negligence, and undermined the farming system through monopolization.
They have profited off of the torture, confinement, and cruel treatment of countless animals, and actively hide these practices.
They have continuously sought to strip employees of the right to negotiate for better pay and safer working conditions.
They have held students hostage with tens of thousands of dollars of debt on education, which is itself a human right.
They have consistently outsourced labor and used that outsourcing as leverage to cut workers’ healthcare and pay.
They have influenced the courts to achieve the same rights as people, with none of the culpability or responsibility.
They have spent millions of dollars on legal teams that look for ways to get them out of contracts in regards to health insurance.
They have sold our privacy as a commodity.
They have used the military and police force to prevent freedom of the press.
They have deliberately declined to recall faulty products endangering lives in pursuit of profit.
They determine economic policy, despite the catastrophic failures their policies have produced and continue to produce.
They have donated large sums of money to politicians, who are responsible for regulating them.
They continue to block alternate forms of energy to keep us dependent on oil.
They continue to block generic forms of medicine that could save people’s lives or provide relief in order to protect investments that have already turned a substantial profit.
They have purposely covered up oil spills, accidents, faulty bookkeeping, and inactive ingredients in pursuit of profit.
They purposefully keep people misinformed and fearful through their control of the media.
They have accepted private contracts to murder prisoners even when presented with serious doubts about their guilt.
They have perpetuated colonialism at home and abroad.
They have participated in the torture and murder of innocent civilians overseas.
They continue to create weapons of mass destruction in order to receive government contracts.*
To the people of the world,

We, the New York City General Assembly occupying Wall Street in Liberty Square, urge you to assert your power.

Exercise your right to peaceably assemble; occupy public space; create a process to address the problems we face, and generate solutions accessible to everyone.

To all communities that take action and form groups in the spirit of direct democracy, we offer support, documentation, and all of the resources at our disposal.

Join us and make your voices heard!

*These grievances are not all-inclusive.
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Nekota
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Thu May 10, 2012 1:27 am

AndyH wrote:Not a Solution - Nuclear Power

Sorry, nuke folks. This one shocked me a bit.

...

Note and request: I don't consider this to be a final answer in any way, nor am I in any position to declare anything one way or another. If you have better information and/or a better way to interpret the existing information then PLEASE bring it forward! Thank you !


Shocked? I don't think so -- it appears to have pleased you immensely. I offered you a 3 inch total volume energy solution but you don't want to hear it. So go dig up every fear mongering article you can find and add it to the laundry list. Of course you have lots of company but understanding a complex energy problem is not a simple overnight task. No energy source is without it's problems - for example both solar and wind have death rates from falls. And a recent peer reviewed publication discusses how wind turbines increase local temperatures. In some ways having Japan move away from reliable energy is making them less competitive, and soon Germany will follow but I'm not sure how long the Germans will put up with unreliable power. I'm convinced we will need every energy source we can find but the ability to effectively weight the risks and benefits of each is not working in our time which is running out. The ability to add value to products comes from energy - all these IPO's related to the information bubble are for selling something, not adding value. Since we don't want to make things in the US, we are making social and economic conditions worse but that's another subject that others with much better qualifications than I can discuss.

Since we stopped nuclear in the 70's the issues I debated then have come true - global warming, high energy prices, job loss. I didn't convince enough to make a difference then nor will I change your mind now.
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