After a mad scramble, EV battery shakeout begins - Feb'12

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scottf200

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In my Volt VIN 01234 <actual>
After a mad scramble, EV battery shakeout begins
[update] http://plasticsnews.com/headlines2.html?id=24479" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; [/update]
By David Sedgwick | AUTOMOTIVE NEWS
Posted February 13, 2012
DETROIT (Feb. 13, 1:45 p.m. ET) --
A shakeout of North America’s electric vehicle battery suppliers is under way.

In January, Ener1 Inc., the New York-based battery maker that owned a stake in bankrupt Norwegian EV producer Think Global, filed for Chapter 11 reorganization.

That same month, A123 Systems of Waltham, Mass., laid off 35 percent of its workers at two Michigan plants after reducing its revenue outlook for 2011.

Meanwhile, Boston-Power Inc. of Westborough, Mass., plans to move the bulk of its operations to China, where the government is offering big subsidies to bolster the EV industry.

Given slow sales of the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf, some industry insiders have predicted it will take another decade or so for the U.S. market to generate high-volume sales of EVs. Battery makers appear to have gotten ahead of the market: One study says “excessively grand expansion plans” would result in production capacity at twice the level of market demand by 2015.

A shakeout was inevitable, says industry consultant Jon Bereisa.
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we'll see what happens if gas hits $5-7 a gallon as some predict... I think it's going to be a better year for EV's than some think. I believe it hinges on the quick charging network getting in place. Even though most driving can be done from the charging done in one's garage, the consumer wants reassurance that they can easily and conveniently "gas up" when they want to go on longer trips. mass market adoption hinges on DC fast charging, IMHO.
 
In reality the problem with smaller start up battery manufacturers like A123 Systems, Boston-Power, Ener1, etc is that the automobile manufactures chose to go with the larger battery manufactures like LG, Panasonic and NEC. Can you blame them? They have enough risk to deal with, why add more risk selecting an under capitalized battery start up. To say LEAF and Volt sales have anything to do with the issues at A123 Systems, Boston-Power, Ener1 is crazy. If 250K LEAFs and 250K Volts were sold this year, A123 Systems, Boston-Power and Ener1 would see any additional revenue whatsoever. In addition, the article fails to grasp that there is a broad range of electrification occurring in the automotive industry presently. There will be far more mild hybrids (such as eAssist technology) sold over the next several years than pure EVs. So mild hybrid, hybrids, plug in hybrids, and BEV will all need batteries. That, in total, will be a sizable market. It's likely even ICE vehicles will switch from lead acid to Li-ion 12v batteries as the price drops.
 
http://www.energ2.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

not all companies are suffering. now this is not exactly a battery company but maybe a major player in the future
 
i think the plug options will continue to branch out each taking a small niche. but the mild hybrid is not going to be around long. extended range hybrids like the the PiP and Volt will be around along with the high mileage hybrids.

the BEV's will take off as soon as the battery is taken out of the consumer's hand with Better Place model of leasing. but the MiEV, the Leaf, etc will still do pretty good as well
 
A123 sees "going concern" risk due to steep losses:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/a123-sees-going-concern-risk-233157228.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
Linked from that article:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/622301-anti-hype-in-lithium-ion-batteries-foretells-doom-for-electric-cars" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This guy is a real EV Debbie Downer, but this is a pretty funny quote:

Tesla may survive for a time by making toys for the ideologically committed and mathematically challenged rich, but the congenital birth defect that's doomed every generation of electric cars to the scrap heap remains.

This was interesting too:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/608361-stop-start-realities-and-ev-fantasies" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

A basic stop-start system will add about $300 to the price of a car and save its owner 5% on his fuel consumption. For 35 million vehicles worldwide, the incremental cost will be about $10 billion and the annual fuel savings will be 700 million gallons. To put those numbers into perspective, my favorite toymaker Tesla Motors (TSLA) hopes to ramp its production to 20,000 EVs a year if it can find that many mathematically challenged buyers. The electric drive systems in those EVs will cost at least $800 million, but they'll only save eight million gallons of gas per year.
When you turn the crank on the fuel efficiency numbers, it costs $14 to save a gallon of gas per year with stop-start while it costs $100 to save the same gallon of gas with electric drive. I'm sure the eco-royalty won't mind a paying a 600% premium for flashy fuel savings as long as smarmy politicians are willing to squander public funds on direct and indirect subsidies and give them special perks like HOV lane access.

Not sure how he gets those numbers. On the stop-start, a 30mpg car would use 400 gallons annually for 12,000 miles. At $3.50 a gallon you're saving $70 a year for a $300 investment, which is a good deal, particularly if there are reasons other than the almighty dollar to reduce the gasoline consumption. The four-year payback adds up on that one.
But does the electric drive system on the Tesla really account for $40k per car? The Tesla S looks to me more like a $15k premium over a comparable gas luxury car that would probably get about 20mpg. So the Tesla buyers are collectively spending $300M to save 12M gallons of gas every year, or $42M/year at $3.50/gal for a seven year payback. I don't see how that is a 600% premium over the stop-start.

The other flaw in that argument would be the scale of the investment. If I spend $30 on an LED light bulb it might save me $10 a year, which is a great ROI as a percentage, but big deal, I'm still only saving $10 a year. On the other hand if I spend $10,000 on a solar system that saves me $1500 a year, the ROI is much smaller as a percentage compared to the LED, but much greater in the long run in total dollars.
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
Linked from that article:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/622301-anti-hype-in-lithium-ion-batteries-foretells-doom-for-electric-cars" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This guy is a real EV Debbie Downer, but this is a pretty funny quote:

Tesla may survive for a time by making toys for the ideologically committed and mathematically challenged rich, but the congenital birth defect that's doomed every generation of electric cars to the scrap heap remains.


Aye that sounds like the swiss battery lawyer J. Petersen ...
 
Maybe the US should be offering competitive advantages to the battery manufacturers? Oh wait, we're not supposed to pick winners and losers. We're supposed to leave that up to China... :roll:
 
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2012/05/a123-20120531.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

A123 Systems 8K filing says substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern; status of grants and incentives

"In its most recent 8K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Li-ion battery maker A123 Systems said a number of circumstances have raised “substantial doubt on [its] ability to continue as a going concern.” "
 
Car battery Startups Fizzle (WSJ 5/31)):

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304791704577420350163856824.html?mod=googlenews_wsj" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
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