Gasoline May Rise Above $5 a Gallon

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Nekota

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 12, 2010
Messages
616
Location
Sunnyvale, CA
Sunoco and ConocoPhillips have idled refineries and may idle more this summer. This is due to differences in the price (cheaper) of locally available crude oil in other parts of the US.

Reminds me of the world is flat economics pitch and how resource availability impacts inelastic commodity prices. Another disturbing energy balance problem is California imports 25% of its electricity

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-23/gasoline-may-rise-above-4-a-gallon-as-northeast-plants-shut.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

edit 4 to 5 now that $4 for regular in California Bay Area (15 Feb 2012)
 
"may rise?" you have got to be kidding. was there any question about that? i can t believe the general consumer is still under the impression that $3.21 gas is here to stay (Costco gas prices early Nov $3.679 to $3.219 yesterday)

but gas prices generally drop in winter due to less driving= lower demand
but also heating costs go up, allowing less available cash

why does this not happen in summer for people in the South...well, generally its because...ya that why. just because. also, many can greatly reduce their A/C and simply be uncomfortable. reducing heat in sub freezing weather can lead to death.

case in point; i went to School in Riverside CA . its basically the desert. it was like 50 miles north of Palm Springs and temps usually averaged in the mid 90's and up during summer. i went two summers without hardly any A/C at all because i could not afford to run it. sure it sucked, but i am still here. spent a lot of time at the pool to cool off.

now most of you will say you cant live without A/C . that is not true. for Phoenix maybe, but the rest of you can survive just fine. but you can afford A/C so you run it.

now the recession does throw a wrench into the gas price patterns but if we look at summer winter prices

winter 2011; 3.21
Summer 2011; 3.75 to 3.95 (higher prices were early summer. a bit unusual)

2010; 2.75 to $3 prices started out low in Jan and floated around hitting $3.05 briefly in Sept

Winter 2009; $2.75 review 2010 prices. its a slow increase of gas price collapse caused by 2008 recession.

Summer 2009; $2.57 price jump for Summer driving Season. also loosely aligns with Stock Market recovery... remember gas prices lag a bit due to the pathetic futures market mechanics.

Spring 2009; essential to add in this discussion ONE DOLLAR 99 cents.

Winter 2008; in midst of recession; $1.67...yea thats right...

Summer 2008; before we knew about the impending financial failures (although many saw it coming) $3.79- $4.09 (price look familiar ya, only took 3 years for gas prices to get back on track)

Winter 2008; $3.05 - 3.20 (prices bounced up and down so guessing had some fillups in Salem Or where gas is cheaper. WA pays one of the highest gas taxes in the nation)

so its fast forward 3 years and gas prices are back to pre-recession levels. so $4 is a given come Summer 2012. its funny, because during that time, my employer did a pay realignment and i lost 30% of my income. (they have since added bonus programs which "can" allow me to gain back up to 20-25% of that drop in pay...which essentially means my income has been flat for YEARS)

so gas prices have "recovered" has anything else?
 
Nekota said:
... Another disturbing energy balance problem is California imports 25% of its electricity
What is your source for this statement and why is it disturbing? Are you saying that California imports electricity from Mexico?

I know that BPA (Bonneville Power Administration) ships surplus power from Northwest dams to California on a tie link that my father-in-law help design and construct many decades ago. Is that what you are talking about? If so, that hardly counts as an "import" as the BPA is a federal agency of the US.
 
why does this not happen in summer for people in the South...well, generally its because...ya that why. just because. also, many can greatly reduce their A/C and simply be uncomfortable. reducing heat in sub freezing weather can lead to death.

Well, there are several reports (mainly the elderly/children) of deaths as a result of heat stroke during power outages during the hot temperatures... but I understand your point. It's also more about temperatures relative to our body temperatures. The observed "extreme" heat (100+) isn't as harsh as the "extreme" cold (-10 and below) without HVAC.

Although a funny saying about someone complaining about the cold "You can always put on more clothes to stay warm... You can only take off so much to cool down!!!"

Sorry for the OT response, but I agree with the notion... who didnt think gas would rise again?!?
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
"may rise?" you have got to be kidding. was there any question about that? i can t believe the general consumer is still under the impression that $3.21 gas is here to stay (Costco gas prices early Nov $3.679 to $3.219 yesterday)
$3.21? It's not that cheap here in Nor Cal. I got gas at one of the cheaper stations yesterday at $3.359/gal. Per http://fuelgaugereport.opisnet.com/CAavg.asp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, the avg is CA is currently $3.548 and $3.531 in San Jose.

Some places have it really cheap, in comparison, like Albuquerque at $2.796 per http://fuelgaugereport.opisnet.com/NMmetro.asp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

In the recent past, I'd see posts on Tivocommunity from people outside CA as reminders as to how much more expensive gas is here than most of the US.
 
And when it does hit $5 a gallon, people will bitch and moan that somebody needs to do something. Well guess what, they are doing something, it's called electric cars. But as long as gas is under $4 all we get is EV bashing.

Oh and Merry Christmas to all!
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
And when it does hit $5 a gallon, people will bitch and moan that somebody needs to do something. Well guess what, they are doing something, it's called electric cars. But as long as gas is under $4 all we get is EV bashing.
Besides EVs, as many articles have pointed out, it's rather silly that people want the government to "do something" by raising fuel economy standards (e.g. fleet average of "54.5 mpg" by 2025 even though that translates into ~36-38 mpg combined on the Monroney sticker) when people can take it upon themselves now to buy more efficient vehicles in the first place. No need to wait for the government to do something or for rules to take effect.

My 2nd gen Prius already counts for "65.7 mpg" for CAFE purposes and the current (3rd) gen counts for a tad over "70 mpg" for CAFE purposes.

I question whether people who drive monstrosities and then flee when gas goes up $1/gallon can really "afford" such vehicles in the first place if $1/gallon makes a difference.
 
DaveL said:
Nekota said:
... Another disturbing energy balance problem is California imports 25% of its electricity
What is your source for this statement and why is it disturbing? Are you saying that California imports electricity from Mexico?

I know that BPA (Bonneville Power Administration) ships surplus power from Northwest dams to California on a tie link that my father-in-law help design and construct many decades ago. Is that what you are talking about? If so, that hardly counts as an "import" as the BPA is a federal agency of the US.

My source is the EIA http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=4370&src=email" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

California's population continues to grow and the electric utilities in California are not building generating infrastructure. The additional power is imported from hydro in the northwest which had a very strong precipitation season this past year and actually could not export the wind energy generated. Even more comes from the southwest to power the LA basin and San Diego had a blackout in September.

I am using the import / export to represent the power flow direction and not the political / economic definition.

The high voltage DC BPA intertie 65 is something to be very proud of and is an outstanding performer for long distance electric power transmission. While DC has an efficiency advantage, it does not have the best reliability record and the inverters have power limits. Having power transmission lines for an interconnected grid provides power sharing and provides a backup source but my concern is moving to a system where the grid is the major growth source for electricity by importing the electricity rather than generating it within the boundaries of the utility service area. Generating locally with PV provides an increase in capacity during the peak summer time loads, but needs storage to spread out the capacity.
 
If you recheck the source you posted, You will see California's electricity imports from the Southwest are about twice those from the Northwest. I believe that the largest proportion of California's electricity imports are actually coal-fueled.

For most of the last few decades, natural gas was much more expensive than coal generation, and the higher pollution of coal plants was largely considered irrelevant, so its seemed make to economic sense to build coal plant nearer the (costly-to-ship) coal fields, and import the energy over power lines.

This also allowed Californian’s to have “their” coal pollution, go into other people’s air...

Now utilities face stranded costs in these obsolete coal plants, even as they are shutting them down, and replacing them with natural gas fueled generation, at a rapid rate.

From the WSJ:
...For decades, coal produced more electricity than all other fuels combined, and as recently as 2003 accounted for almost 51% of net electricity generation, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

But its share has dropped sharply in the last couple of years. It fell to 43% for the first nine months of 2011, as natural gas's share has jumped to almost 25% from under 17% in 2003...

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=7349" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Nekota said:
DaveL said:
Nekota said:
... Another disturbing energy balance problem is California imports 25% of its electricity
What is your source for this statement and why is it disturbing? Are you saying that California imports electricity from Mexico?

I know that BPA (Bonneville Power Administration) ships surplus power from Northwest dams to California on a tie link that my father-in-law help design and construct many decades ago. Is that what you are talking about? If so, that hardly counts as an "import" as the BPA is a federal agency of the US.

My source is the EIA http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=4370&src=email" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

California's population continues to grow and the electric utilities in California are not building generating infrastructure. The additional power is imported from hydro in the northwest which had a very strong precipitation season this past year and actually could not export the wind energy generated. Even more comes from the southwest to power the LA basin and San Diego had a blackout in September.

I am using the import / export to represent the power flow direction and not the political / economic definition.

The high voltage DC BPA intertie 65 is something to be very proud of and is an outstanding performer for long distance electric power transmission. While DC has an efficiency advantage, it does not have the best reliability record and the inverters have power limits. Having power transmission lines for an interconnected grid provides power sharing and provides a backup source but my concern is moving to a system where the grid is the major growth source for electricity by importing the electricity rather than generating it within the boundaries of the utility service area. Generating locally with PV provides an increase in capacity during the peak summer time loads, but needs storage to spread out the capacity.
 
Wouldn't bother me a bit if gas hit $4, $5, or more.

I'd check my tire pressure and oil level more frequently (sorry, no EV for me yet so yes I have oil to check/fill/replace). I'd consider running higher PSI and lower on the dipstick to increase fuel economy but I wouldn't pay attention to the price at the pump.

I'd buy more in bulk whether that be Amazon or Walmart. Reduce my grocery shopping trips some (maybe avoid buying some perishable items because of it).

In other words I'd adjust without complaining. I don't care if my gas costs double though I'm sure the economy on the whole would be affected. I'm just saying my personal household of 2 vehicles (1 hybrid, 1 gas only) doesn't use enough gas compared to my other bills for me to complain about it.
 
Electricity being brought into California from the northwest is an import with respect to California. As is the electricity brought into southern California from Nevada and Arizona.

The state is being disingenuous when it makes claims to be reducing air polution by selling its interests in out-of-state coal-fired power plants. Just because the in-state utilities no longer own a share of those plants, the plants are still running as they did before and California is still getting the electricity from them as it did before. Only the financial mechanism for paying for that electricity has changed.

DaveL said:
I know that BPA (Bonneville Power Administration) ships surplus power from Northwest dams to California on a tie link that my father-in-law help design and construct many decades ago. Is that what you are talking about? If so, that hardly counts as an "import" as the BPA is a federal agency of the US.
Nekota said:
... Another disturbing energy balance problem is California imports 25% of its electricity
 
The ironic thing: every EV purchased reduces the demand for gas thus keeping prices low and reducing the demand for EVs. Are we killing ourselves?
 
copdoc said:
The ironic thing: every EV purchased reduces the demand for gas thus keeping prices low and reducing the demand for EVs. Are we killing ourselves?

If the amount of EVs bought actually reduces the price of oil... then there'd have to be millions and millions of them on the road... i'm all for it.
 
Today's LA Times: The low seasonal price for gas right now is still high:
Gasoline prices set December record
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-gas-prices-20111228,0,2851248.story

In a few years, when many of us Leafers will be thinking of trading up to a new Leaf or other EV with more battery capacity and a faster charger, high gas prices should assist in keeping up the resale value of our Leafs, as long as the battery capacity of our cars has not declined too much.
 
Personally I think with current (and growing) demand in China, yes, gas will indeed hit $4 or more. Guy on my left has a Suburban, guy on my right has a gargantuan Hummer. I'm just smilin'.
 
tbleakne said:
Today's LA Times: The low seasonal price for gas right now is still high:
Gasoline prices set December record
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-gas-prices-20111228,0,2851248.story

In a few years, when many of us Leafers will be thinking of trading up to a new Leaf or other EV with more battery capacity and a faster charger, high gas prices should assist in keeping up the resale value of our Leafs, as long as the battery capacity of our cars has not declined too much.


well if this article is not a good indicator that prices WILL rise (gas prices have dropped here 43 cents since Nov 14th) i dont know what is. i am glad to be a member of a forum of a group of people who are doing something about our dependence on foreign oil. and yes, sometimes i feel like we are in a rowboat in the middle of the ocean but we just need to carry on. America's level of acceptance is two fold.

1) people who can afford to pay a much higher price for gas. iow, they have the option to go green but choose not to

2) people who cant afford to pay the higher price or go green.

its the first half of this equation that has really disappointed me and its partly due to misinformation on EV tech, missteps by manufacturers and EV support systems for public charging, favorable EV rates, distribution of currenly available EVs and so on...

this quote tells a BIG story on our acceptance

But Americans aren't complaining as much as they did in 2008 when prices peaked at $4.588 a gallon in California and at $4.114 nationally, followed by a sharp decline, said Marie Montgomery, spokeswoman for the Automobile Club of Southern California.

we have become acclimated to $4 gas, so this headline barely deserves a mention. how long will it take for the US to accept $5 gas?
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
we have become acclimated to $4 gas, so this headline barely deserves a mention. how long will it take for the US to accept $5 gas?
It's like boiling frogs, http://planetforward.org/idea/boiling-point/

OPEC's plan is to keep price increases just below the point at which industrialized countries would actually do something to free ourselves, and to lower the oil price periodically to clear out any alternative energy companies and government programs.
 
walterbays said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
we have become acclimated to $4 gas, so this headline barely deserves a mention. how long will it take for the US to accept $5 gas?
It's like boiling frogs, http://planetforward.org/idea/boiling-point/

OPEC's plan is to keep price increases just below the point at which industrialized countries would actually do something to free ourselves, and to lower the oil price periodically to clear out any alternative energy companies and government programs.

BINGO!! that is a PERFECT example of what i have been saying. remember the people i told you about that were paying $400 a month for gas this past summer. now that they are "only" paying $250, she is thinking about trading in her compact for a truck...

but that is how gas is going. it spikes from $2.50 to $4 stays that way a few months then drops to $2.75 and everyone goes out and buys a gas guzzler. then it spikes to $4.25 for a few months then drops to $3...

its like i said, how long will it take to accept $5 gas? i say about 2 summers
 
Yesterday, Iran made a statement along these lines (from http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45805706/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/t/us-navy-warns-iran-hormuz-disruption-will-not-be-tolerated/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;)
The warning came after Iran's navy chief Habibollah Sayyari told Iran's English language Press TV that "closing the Strait of Hormuz for Iran's armed forces is really easy ... or as Iranians say it will be easier than drinking a glass of water."
For those who aren't aware, the above is an important oil choke point. Per the same article:
Flows through the Strait in 2009 were roughly 33 percent of all seaborne traded oil (40 percent in 2008), or 17 percent of oil traded worldwide, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Oddly enough, yesterday, oil prices didn't really change in response...
 
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