1 Million plug-ins by 2015 : How ?

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evnow

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We have all heard this before. Recently the government said they expect 1.2 Million plug-ins sold by 2015. Here is how they get to that figure.

http://venturebeat.com/2011/02/11/nissan-leaf-delays-2011-government-2015-one-million-electric-cars/

Surprises to me are the large number of Fisker Ninas and the small number of Focus EVs. Still not accounted for Toyota & Honda's EVs, Ford Energi, BMW Megacity ... essentially the ones that we know are coming, but no numbers have been announced.

DOE-one-million-electric-vehicles-2015-report1.png
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
isnt the TN factory supposed to be putting out 150,000 a year by fall/2012?
Smyrna will come online in 2012 but I doubt it will get to 150K in 2012. I'm sure the rampup will be slow. The 2013 and later production will depend on the demand as well.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
isnt the TN factory supposed to be putting out 150,000 a year by fall/2012?
Smyrna won't go on line until late 2012, assuming no glitches! (hello, Nissan ??!!??) :)

I'm sure it will be several months later at best before they approach 150,000 capacity.

er, what evnow said... (simultaneous minds) :D
 
list looks inaccurate and incomplete. i was not aware that the Volt would be putting out that much but then again, i am not really following the Volt that closely any more. i had heard no more than 50,000 a year but i guess that is subject to change if they take off.

where is Toyota/RAV 4?

this is not enough. i am expecting 1.5 million vehicles PER YEAR by 2015
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
where is Toyota/RAV 4?
That is a limited release to satisfy CARB, I'm afraid.

this is not enough. i am expecting 1.5 million vehicles PER YEAR by 2015
Possible - if EVs take off in 2012/13. The table shows a capacity of about 375K in 2015.
 
i think we will have achieved critical mass by 2013-2014. the Leaf will show other manufacturers that EVs can work.

escalating gas prices will see huge demands for fleet vehicles. Fedex has 40% of their routes that run less than 60 miles a day.

plus this chart does not reflect cars we dont even know about. i also personally believe that some of these cars will fail before 2015. EVs take a ton and it will be doubly difficult for smaller companies to gain popularity and i think the Cali market might become saturated pushing out the little guy who cant effectively cover the state
 
The numbers actually sold will bear little resemblance to the numbers on this list for 2012.

When the final sales numbers from 2012 trickle in, I'm seriously doubting Tesla will sell 5000 model S cars.

10,000 Fiskers, eh. This I gotta see.

120,000 Volts in 2012? No way. I like this car but this seems way too optimistic. I don't see sales even half of that.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
i think we will have achieved critical mass by 2013-2014. the Leaf will show other manufacturers that EVs can work.
True - but it usually takes a manufacturer 3 years to bring a car to market - usually double that!
 
If GM sells more than 100k Volts total in the cars current configuration, I will have a heart attack! I predict Nissan as WAY out front in total EV sales by 2015. It is crystal clear that they will dominate the EV market for the forseeable future. Nissan will also have their sports car (EsFlow?!?) and Infinity EVs on sale in 2013 as 2014 models. Not sure what the real number of EVs will be by 2015 but I would not be surprised if half of the cars are from Nissan/Infinity.
 
TRONZ said:
If GM sells more than 100k Volts total in the cars current configuration, I will have a heart attack!
Yes - there isn't a big enough market for Volt at the current price. But if they can bring the price down below $30K (and add the rear 5th seat), I think there will be a good market for Volt - assuming there are no quality issues.
 
Another I c happening is the focus EV doing much better than 20 k a year. I think that americans are primed to buy american and if the focus is a decent car at a reasonable price it will sell much better. Now I believe it will take them a minimum 18 months to ramp up after they realized they have underestimated the EV market but should be there by 2014-15.
Another we cannot ignore; a major charge storage breakthru will blow the EV demand out of the water. Either a cheaper battery or a more reliable battery will cause demand to skyrocket.
 
They also forgot the VW e-motion which goes on sale in 2014. I love the four-stage regen on this one. It also shows SOC. I've always loved my VW Rabbits so may trade in my LEAF in 2014 for one of these!
 
LEAFfan said:
They also forgot the VW e-motion which goes on sale in 2014. I love the four-stage regen on this one. It also shows SOC. I've always loved my VW Rabbits so may trade in my LEAF in 2014 for one of these!
Somehow I don't see any German automakers selling EVs in volume anytime soon. They are worse than Toyota/Honda in their feet dragging. They seem to have this attitude of - let someone else do all the hard work, we will then just go and cash in.
 
I wonder how important that 5th seat really is... I know we couldn't care less and that the 5th seat on the Leaf was of no importance to us. We'd rather have two very comfortable seats in the back - that can also be used for transporting a decent amount of stuff when folded down - than three marginally comfortable ones...


evnow said:
TRONZ said:
If GM sells more than 100k Volts total in the cars current configuration, I will have a heart attack!
Yes - there isn't a big enough market for Volt at the current price. But if they can bring the price down below $30K (and add the rear 5th seat), I think there will be a good market for Volt - assuming there are no quality issues.
 
mogur said:
I wonder how important that 5th seat really is... I know we couldn't care less and that the 5th seat on the Leaf was of no importance to us. I'd rather have two very comfortable seats in the back than there marginally comfortable ones...
This is OT, but, I find that an interesting topic - there was a blog post on that in gm-volt recently. GM claims it is not important and we have never used the rear middle seat. But for carrying stuff, having that tunnel in between would have been an hindrance a lot of times.

Back to Volt's numbers, here is my take.

GM wanted 16 Billion in loans. 120,000 Volts was part of the "pitch". Now that they have withdrawn the application - and the engineering head of Volt has explicitely said the rampup will be slower, I don't think we will see the 120K anytime soon.
 
evnow said:
mogur said:
I wonder how important that 5th seat really is... I know we couldn't care less and that the 5th seat on the Leaf was of no importance to us. I'd rather have two very comfortable seats in the back than there marginally comfortable ones...

Interestingly we used the "fifth" seat in our LEAF last night. We were at a house warming party and one of my wifes friends needed a lift to her car. The LEAF had gotten alot of attention through the night and it was nice to have the available seating to help someone out that really needed it.
 
There was a fairly negative piece on CBS News earlier tonight.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_162-57445738/electric-vehicles-fall-drastically-short-of-obamas-1-million-goal/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; - "Electric vehicles fall drastically short of Obama's 1 million goal" (video included)

The aired version didn't show the table. Since I'm not political, I wasn't aware of the 1 million EVs by 2015 goal until tonight.

It is interesting to see how FAR short everyone has fallen so far to even meet the DOE's original goals for 2012.
 
Train said:
The numbers actually sold will bear little resemblance to the numbers on this list for 2012.

When the final sales numbers from 2012 trickle in, I'm seriously doubting Tesla will sell 5000 model S cars.

"Tesla has announced that as of May 2012 it has more than 10,000 reservations for the Model S."

It's just a matter of how many they can produce.
 
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