A team from Argonne and Oak Ridge National Laboratories in the US and the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI and German Aerospace Center in Germany has reviewed and compared 40 market diffusion models for plug-in vehicles to find similarities or differences and make recommendations for future improvements in modeling in this field.
The team reviewed models from 16 countries, including the United States, Germany, China, South Korea, the United Kingdom and Ireland. These studies modeled the decision factors that drive consumers to purchase PEVs: vehicle and energy prices, operating costs, available charging infrastructure and range, among others.
In an open-access paper in the journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, they report that
important input factorsfor the US are the
purchase price and operating costs, while
for Germany energy prices and the charging infrastructure are mentioned more often.
Larger sales shares of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles than battery electric vehicles are often found in the short term results (until 2030) while the picture is not so clear for the medium- to long-term. . . .
The studies provided vastly different projections of future PEV market shares, mainly in the US and Germany. Estimates ranged from a few percent to more than 50% by 2030. This disparity results, in large part, from the models’ diverse assumptions about market conditions, vehicle and fuel prices, and other factors. . . .
The study focused on addressing the following specific questions:
- What are the projected market shares for a particular region?
What are consumers’ primary purchase considerations?
What is the effect of rebates, tax credits, battery research and development and high-occupancy vehicle lane access?
What is the potential effect of PEV sales on petroleum demand, emissions and demand for electricity? . . .
