Why self-driving and electric cars are farther away than you think Analyzing the convergence of technologies in the face

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GRA

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Via ABG:
Why self-driving and electric cars are farther away than you think
Analyzing the convergence of technologies in the face of consumer preferences.
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/02/27/self-driving-electric-cars-future/

DETROIT — The driverless future built around electric-powered solutions and other mobility buzzwords is farther away than you might think. So says industry expert Carla Bailo, president of the Center for Automotive Research. The reason? Many consumers don't want this stuff.

It's a dose of cold water on the optimistic narrative popular in some circles, espousing that all vehicles will soon drive themselves as the internal combustion engine dies quickly in the face of alternative propulsion. Here's the reality, as Bailo and CAR see it: Just 3.8 percent of vehicles sold in 2030 will be capable of Level 4 or 5 autonomy, the highest levels of self driving technology. Additionally, that same year CAR predicts more than 90 percent of vehicles sold will still have conventional engines, with just 8 percent employing electrification or fuel cells. With fuel prices relatively low and electrics usually carrying a price premium, just 3.3 percent of vehicles in the United States had some form of electrification in 2017.

"First you've got to address what the consumer demand is," said Bailo, who heads the influential research center in Ann Arbor, Mich. "You cannot dictate what you think the customer should be buying. . . ."

This is put out by the Center For Automotive Research, whose head is Carla Bailo. Long-time MNL may recognize the name, as she used to work for Nissan in the Phoenix test era, and was involved in some communication re batteries here. Direct link to report:
The Great Divide: What Consumers Are
Buying vs. The Investments Automakers &
Suppliers Are Making in Future
Technologies, Products & Business Models
http://www.cargroup.org/wp-content/...Are-Buying-vs-The-Investments-Automake....pdf
 
Since Carla Bailo so horribly misrepresented what was going on with the LEAF batteries, I see no reason we should put any credence in her prognostications today.

Here is what this "corporate communicator" told us five-and-a-half years ago:
Carla Bailo in an open letter to the LEAF community on September 22 said:
A small number of Nissan LEAF owners in Arizona are experiencing a greater than average battery capacity loss due to their unique usage cycle, which includes operating mileages that are higher than average in a high-temperature environment over a short period of time.
 
According to Mobileye we will have L2 and L3 self driving this year.
* https://newsroom.intel.com/news/2018-ces-adas-partnerships-products-propel-drive-toward-full-autonomy/
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lane_centering#2018_Mobileye_EyeQ4
 
We should stay away from self-driving cars like we would stay away from coal fueled cars. There is no reason for them except for the government to control the cars on the road and those who used them with more restrictions....

Self driving cars is another governmental way to make people "sheeple", just like their long term push to disarm Americans from their firearms..
 
I drive between phoenix and san fran a few times a year. Would be nice to leave at 8 pm and arrive at destination at 8 am after a good nights sleep. :)
 
powersurge said:
We should stay away from self-driving cars like we would stay away from coal fueled cars. There is no reason for them except for the government to control the cars on the road and those who used them with more restrictions....

Self driving cars is another governmental way to make people "sheeple", just like their long term push to disarm Americans from their firearms..

Definitely a good point. Even if autonomy were technically viable it would probably be a flop once our freedom-loving folks realized it would be the end of speeding, tailgating and general road-going hooliganism. :lol:
 
Nubo said:
powersurge said:
We should stay away from self-driving cars like we would stay away from coal fueled cars. There is no reason for them except for the government to control the cars on the road and those who used them with more restrictions....

Self driving cars is another governmental way to make people "sheeple", just like their long term push to disarm Americans from their firearms..

Definitely a good point. Even if autonomy were technically viable it would probably be a flop once our freedom-loving folks realized it would be the end of speeding, tailgating and general road-going hooliganism. :lol:

Agreed... Those qualities are American rights, and citizens should not be tracked and controlled by an internet connected car. Look how we are tracked on our cell phones (by Google) already... Everywhere I go, I get emails on my phone for sales offers of where I happen to be... Frightening!!
 
RegGuheert said:
Since Carla Bailo so horribly misrepresented what was going on with the LEAF batteries, I see no reason we should put any credence in her prognostications today.

Here is what this "corporate communicator" told us five-and-a-half years ago:
Carla Bailo in an open letter to the LEAF community on September 22 said:
A small number of Nissan LEAF owners in Arizona are experiencing a greater than average battery capacity loss due to their unique usage cycle, which includes operating mileages that are higher than average in a high-temperature environment over a short period of time.

Good catch...agreed!
Some folks manage to get paid to do things they no nothing about...and Carla appears to be one of them.
 
I think there's a big chance EV's will catch on, but I'm not so sure about automated drive.

If you look at the most sold cars in the world, you may think that those would be SUV's or sports cars or such. But in reality the most sold car platform was the classic VW Beetle. And the most sold car model, although it's platform changed several times over the years, is the Toyota Camry.

The reason is price and practicality. Everyone that needs a car needs a car to get from point A to point B. For the majority of people. If that car costs and arm and a leg, is unreliable, needs a lot of fuel and maintenance, etc., people aren't going to see it as practical. The reputation the VW had in it's day, and what the Camry has is exactly what the majority of people want, practicality. In fact, it has never really mattered that those cars have been ridiculed for being underpowered and rather simple.

Gasoline cars keep getting more expensive and more complex mainly because of rising emissions standards. Yet EV's are getting cheaper and are much more simple. I see the Nissan Leaf as potentially the next classic VW or the next Camry. In any event, when there's an EV that's just as practical as a Camry, but costs less than one, is the day when EV's will take over.

Actually I'm afraid that all this automated technology and sportiness could actually hurt EV adoption in the long run, that is, if the great majority of buyers are never allowed to buy a cheap practical EV. Those kind of things are only good for getting the EV's off and sold to the richer early adopters.
 
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