Plug-In Hybrid Car Sales Grow In France, All-Electric Decreases

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GRA

Well-known member
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Via IEVS: https://insideevs.com/plug-in-hybrid-car-sales-in-france-grows-while-all-electric-decreases/

The importance of plug-in hybrids in France increases compared to all-electric, as market demand for that type of powertrain notes significant growth.

In January, 2,892 plug-ins were registered (down 2.4%) in France. 956 of them were passenger plug-in hybrids, which increased by 140% year-over-year from just 399.

For comparison, passenger BEV sales decreased 39% to 1,375 (including 89 BMW i3 REx). . . .

The big surprise in January was the Renault ZOE collapse by 61.5% to just 633 new registrations. Apparently, demand is still strong, but the French manufacturer wasn’t able to keep up with orders. On the other hand, the BMW i3 did well with 172 registrations.

Plug-in hybrids were led by the Volvo XC60 T8 Twin Engine (114) and Mercedes GLC (113).

Almost half of the light commercial BEVs were Renault Kangoo Z.E. (274).
 
GRA said:
Seeing as how similar articles referring to some country or other appear every month or two, it's hardly difficult. More interesting to me is the cause of the shift, when (as it appears to be in this case) it isn't driven by changes in government mandates or subsidies. Is it just a blip or the start of a trend, and if the latter, what's driving the shift in consumer demand? We could use some customer survey data.
The supposed shift you are purporting is imaginary.

Let's be very clear here: The percent of PEV sales which are BEVs is INCREASING, not decreasing. Here are the numbers:

In 2016, BEV sales accounted for 64% of global PEV sales while in 2017, the share of BEV sales increased to 66%.
EV Sales on January 31 said:
The rise of the Chinese manufacturers has significantly changed the BEV/PHEV breakdown, at this moment BEV's have a 64% take rate, well above the 36% of PHEV's, we have to go back to 2011 to see such a big difference.
EV Sales in January 29 said:
Thanks to the influence of the BEV-friendly China, BEVs were up 2% share in 2017, with the BEV/PHEV breakdown ending at 66% BEV vs 34% PHEV, the highest for all-electrics since 2011.
Of course this is also true in your home state of CA, with BEVs taking a 53% and growing share of PEV sales:
InsideEVs on March 4 said:
Overall, sales in California grew in 2017:

- BEVs: 51,225 (up 30.4%) at 2.5% market share
- PHEVs: 44,962 (up 29.5%) at 2.2% market share
Simply put, your claim that there is a "trend" where PEV sales are shifting away from BEVs and toward PHEVs is pure BS.
 
RegGuheert said:
GRA said:
Seeing as how similar articles referring to some country or other appear every month or two, it's hardly difficult. More interesting to me is the cause of the shift, when (as it appears to be in this case) it isn't driven by changes in government mandates or subsidies. Is it just a blip or the start of a trend, and if the latter, what's driving the shift in consumer demand? We could use some customer survey data.
The supposed shift you are purporting is imaginary.
The numbers in France are imaginary? As I said, the question is are they just a blip, or do they represent a trend?

RegGuheert said:
Let's be very clear here: The percent of PEV sales which are BEVs is INCREASING, not decreasing. Here are the numbers:

In 2016, BEV sales accounted for 64% of global PEV sales while in 2017, the share of BEV sales increased to 66%.
EV Sales on January 31 said:
The rise of the Chinese manufacturers has significantly changed the BEV/PHEV breakdown, at this moment BEV's have a 64% take rate, well above the 36% of PHEV's, we have to go back to 2011 to see such a big difference.
EV Sales in January 29 said:
Thanks to the influence of the BEV-friendly China, BEVs were up 2% share in 2017, with the BEV/PHEV breakdown ending at 66% BEV vs 34% PHEV, the highest for all-electrics since 2011.
Of course this is also true in your home state of CA, with BEVs taking a 53% and growing share of PEV sales:
InsideEVs on March 4 said:
Overall, sales in California grew in 2017:

- BEVs: 51,225 (up 30.4%) at 2.5% market share
- PHEVs: 44,962 (up 29.5%) at 2.2% market share
Simply put, your claim that there is a "trend" where PEV sales are shifting away from BEVs and toward PHEVs is pure BS.
Reg, I never claimed there was a trend, I said I wanted to see if there was one (either way), and if so, what was causing it. Of course BEV sales are up in China, as the government there is mandating them. In California, we've now got the Bolt as well as the Model 3 and other Teslas, which can meet more people's needs as their sole car, with more to come. But as far as the general population goes they still don't care, and they continue to buy ICEs - PHEVs strike me as the only way to get them to switch in the near term.
 
GRA said:
In California, we've now got the Bolt as well as the Model 3 and other Teslas, which can meet more people's needs as their sole car, with more to come.
So do we.
GRA said:
But as far as the general population goes they still don't care, and they continue to buy ICEs - PHEVs strike me as the only way to get them to switch in the near term.
Yep. It's all just your personal bias, as I have been pointing out. The facts point to the opposite conclusion.
 
RegGuheert said:
GRA said:
In California, we've now got the Bolt as well as the Model 3 and other Teslas, which can meet more people's needs as their sole car, with more to come.
So do we.
GRA said:
But as far as the general population goes they still don't care, and they continue to buy ICEs - PHEVs strike me as the only way to get them to switch in the near term.
Yep. It's all just your personal bias, as I have been pointing out. The facts point to the opposite conclusion.
It's my personal bias that 7 years after production PEVs were introduced here, they've only just reached 1% of U.S. sales despite large continuing subsidies?
 
GRA said:
RegGuheert said:
GRA said:
In California, we've now got the Bolt as well as the Model 3 and other Teslas, which can meet more people's needs as their sole car, with more to come.
So do we.
GRA said:
But as far as the general population goes they still don't care, and they continue to buy ICEs - PHEVs strike me as the only way to get them to switch in the near term.
Yep. It's all just your personal bias, as I have been pointing out. The facts point to the opposite conclusion.
It's my personal bias that 7 years after production PEVs were introduced here, they've only just reached 1% of U.S. sales despite large continuing subsidies?
No, just read what you wrote again:
GRA said:
...PHEVs strike me as the only way to get them to switch in the near term.
Again, BEV sales are growing faster than PHEV sales. Your "only way" concept is nonsense.
 
GRA said:
It's my personal bias that 7 years after production PEVs were introduced here, they've only just reached 1% of U.S. sales despite large continuing subsidies?

I suspect you will be whining about how PEVs are only 4% of USA sales in 4 more years...
 
RegGuheert said:
GRA said:
RegGuheert said:
So do we.Yep. It's all just your personal bias, as I have been pointing out. The facts point to the opposite conclusion.
It's my personal bias that 7 years after production PEVs were introduced here, they've only just reached 1% of U.S. sales despite large continuing subsidies?
No, just read what you wrote again:
GRA said:
...PHEVs strike me as the only way to get them to switch in the near term.
Again, BEV sales are growing faster than PHEV sales. Your "only way" concept is nonsense.
Okay, I should have added the caveat (as I have many times before) "absent government mandates and massive subsidies." Far more people can afford (without subsidies) a $25k Ionic PHEV that can be their sole car, and as long as PHEVs aren't legally banned from driving into an ZEV-only area that they need to access, will likely opt for a PHEV over a more expensive and more limited BEV.
 
WetEV said:
GRA said:
It's my personal bias that 7 years after production PEVs were introduced here, they've only just reached 1% of U.S. sales despite large continuing subsidies?
I suspect you will be whining about how PEVs are only 4% of USA sales in 4 more years...
If that's as far as they've gotten by then, I'll certainly be disappointed - I'm hoping for at least 5% by 2022 if the shift to BEVs isn't well underway by then, but that will be dependent on the growth and affordability of the charging infrastructure. I've got my fingers crossed that Electrify America won't suffer any major holdups, and that public charging can be made profitable.

My main expectation for this year is that U.S. BEV sales will finally cross the 1% barrier by themselves, assuming the Model 3 lifts rather than kills Tesla. I think the former's more likely than the latter, but now that volatility has returned to the economy, who knows?
 
GRA said:
WetEV said:
GRA said:
It's my personal bias that 7 years after production PEVs were introduced here, they've only just reached 1% of U.S. sales despite large continuing subsidies?
I suspect you will be whining about how PEVs are only 4% of USA sales in 4 more years...
If that's as far as they've gotten by then, I'll certainly be disappointed - I'm hoping for at least 5% by 2022 if the shift to BEVs isn't well underway by then, but that will be dependent on the growth and affordability of the charging infrastructure.
Frankly, 2% would be entirely reasonable for PEVs in 2022 since that would equate to nearly 20% exponential annual growth. 4% would mean over 40% exponential annual growth, which would be outstanding. 5% would mean nearly 50% exponential annual growth.

While I would not be at all surprised to see either 4% or 5% PEV penetration in 2022, I certainly won't be disappointed by 2% penetration, since that will indicate sustained growth of around 20% is occurring.
 
RegGuheert said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
I suspect you will be whining about how PEVs are only 4% of USA sales in 4 more years...
If that's as far as they've gotten by then, I'll certainly be disappointed - I'm hoping for at least 5% by 2022 if the shift to BEVs isn't well underway by then, but that will be dependent on the growth and affordability of the charging infrastructure.
Frankly, 2% would be entirely reasonable for PEVs in 2022 since that would equate to nearly 20% exponential annual growth. 4% would mean over 40% exponential annual growth, which would be outstanding. 5% would mean nearly 50% exponential annual growth.

While I would not be at all surprised to see either 4% or 5% PEV penetration in 2022, I certainly won't be disappointed by 2% penetration, since that will indicate sustained growth of around 20% is occurring.
I'm hoping/expecting that we may have some real publicly available L4 (maybe even the first L5) AVs by then, which should also help the growth rate of AFVs generally, although I expect it to help BEVs more than PHEVs or FCEVs. As BEVs are more dependent on the growth of charging infrastructure to serve MUD, it's far cheaper and quicker to arrange grouped central charging stations for AV BEVs to serve that population than it is to retrofit existing MUDs and on-street parking spaces with charging. AVs should also reduce the total number of vehicles in the fleet if mobility services become the norm, making it even easier to provide the required charging infrastructure.

There are so many different ways society may go to meet their future transportation needs that you might as well draw cards to predict which one(s) will be chosen. Will it be same as before except for switching to AFVs? Or will we become transportation omnivores and car ownership will quickly fade away, or something in between? Beats me.
 
With the 2015 Leaf lease expiring I am considering a PHEV. After 7 years the charging infrastructure is still not what I feel that I need to drive electric only everywhere I need or want. This is where I believe government should help. With the pricing for charging is cheaper to pump gas. Plus faster and most of all readily available away from home.
 
camasleaf said:
With the 2015 Leaf lease expiring I am considering a PHEV. After 7 years the charging infrastructure is still not what I feel that I need to drive electric only everywhere I need or want. This is where I believe government should help. With the pricing for charging is cheaper to pump gas. Plus faster and most of all readily available away from home.
That's the current PHEV advantage in a nutshell. I know lots of outdoorsy green types like myself who would love to switch to a ZEV, but we can't because the infrastructure won't allow it yet, and charging is too expensive (eVgo's drop in prices helps a lot, combined with the recent rise in CA gas prices: Avg. $3.348/gal. vs. $2.526/gal. nationally) and/or inconvenient, as well as much slower on the trips we take.
 
$250 a year for AeroVironment for out of town close to freeway charging. Plus another $150 in town as needed. $400 or 140 gallons of gas. I have my eyes on Honda Clarity that will drive 6000 miles with that gas. We still have one BEV, but for the second car a PHEV works better for us. Will likely make the move this weekend.
 
February's French numbers, via IEVS:
PLUG-IN HYBRID SALES SURGES IN FRANCE, WHILE BEVS STRUGGLE IN FEBRUARY
https://insideevs.com/plug-in-hybrid-sales-surges-in-france-while-bevs-struggles-in-february/

Feb. stats:

Passenger BEVs: 2.071 registrations (down 8.8%) at ~1.2% market share
Passenger PHEVs: 1,090 registrations (up 138.5%) at ~0.65% market share
Light commercial BEVs: 640 registrations (up 62.9%)

BEVs decreased for third month in a row, PHEVs up by an average of over 150% for the past four months. Still too early to call it a trend, but If this continues for another 2-3 months I'd say it is.
 
First, I think that most people in the world are not educated about the benefits of hybrid or EV vehicles. They have all been raised on gassers, and people are creatures of habit.. Or they live in low economic, low technology countries, and gas is the only choice.

In my humble but highly thought out opinion... What will make the world get into some form of electric vehicles is when automakers make ALL cars hybrids. The hybrid needs to be the forced standard for people to trust the technology. Why give sheeple the choice? After all, hybrid cars have a seamless driving experience compared to gas cars.... THEN they will see the hybrid as the norm.

As the world starts getting used to the hybrid, THEN they will more easily go to EVs... I started with the hybrid 2006 Ford Escape Hybrid. I loved having the high tech benefit of electric power... After that, the transition to the Leaf was very logical. I wonder how many people on this Leaf forum started with hybrids before they took the plunge to the Leaf??
 
BEV sales are up 40% YOY in France in March:
EV Sales said:
The French PEV passenger car market registered a record 5.402 registrations, up 41% YoY, this time with both technologies (BEVs +40%, PHEVs +45%) pulling the market up to 10,892 units in 2018, up 17% YoY.
It appears YTD BEV sales in France for 2018 may still be slightly down from last year, but I expect BEV sales will continue to experience rapid growth as the year progresses.
 
RegGuheert said:
BEV sales are up 40% YOY in France in March:
EV Sales said:
The French PEV passenger car market registered a record 5.402 registrations, up 41% YoY, this time with both technologies (BEVs +40%, PHEVs +45%) pulling the market up to 10,892 units in 2018, up 17% YoY.
It appears YTD BEV sales in France for 2018 may still be slightly down from last year, but I expect BEV sales will continue to experience rapid growth as the year progresses.
Possible. PHEV sales were also up 45%, so no trend tilting either way is yet apparent. It's looking more like the Jan-Feb. results were a blip, but we'll have to give it a few more months yet to be sure.
 
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