Electric-Car Buyers Not As Loyal To The Plug As They Think

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GRA

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Via GCR:
Electric-Car Buyers Not As Loyal To The Plug As They Think
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101752_electric-car-buyers-not-as-loyal-to-the-plug-as-they-think

All but the most blinded by love fanbois knew this already, but this is the first data I've seen:
It's often said that once you drive an electric car, you'll never want to go back to one with a conventional engine. And various surveys of first-time drivers to actual plug-in car buyers support that notion. But some new data indicate that people who've owned an electric car don't, in fact, always buy another one. . . .

According to Edmunds data, only 29 percent of people who traded in an electric-powered vehicle (including pure EVs and plug-in hybrid cars) this year went on to purchase another electric-powered vehicle.

Interestingly, about 33 percent of electric-powered trade-ins this year instead went toward a new truck or SUV. . . .
 
That would be largely the people who bought a Leaf for HOV lane access, and because gas cost more than it does now, plus a smaller number who got disillusioned with EVs because of the Leaf's resale and capacity drops.
 
Quote: "Interestingly, about 33 percent of electric-powered trade-ins this year instead went toward a new truck or SUV. . . ."

What is the EV truck or EV SUV that is available? Life can change with no EV option.
 
smkettner said:
Quote: "Interestingly, about 33 percent of electric-powered trade-ins this year instead went toward a new truck or SUV. . . ."

What is the EV truck or EV SUV that is available? Life can change with no EV option.
The same people that buy from peer ownership pressure also, meaning you want to keep up with the neighbors as they drive home in their new, *cheap* SUV/Truck and want to be cool like them, regardless of common sense telling you that you'll be spending a fortune on gas/repairs/maintenance in the future.

Plenty people probably have a good reason to need the utility of a Truck/SUV, but many certainly do not when using it to commute to work or just want to look cool for friends. I have a truck but I use the Leaf to do the same stuff that the truck had task to do before, using a trailer on my Leaf. Now I can haul around heavy items, save a ton on gas, plus wear and tear on the truck. The truck has really gathered a lot of dust now because short of needing the 4x4 capability, the Leaf really can be adapted to a lot more roles than just a car.
 
LeftieBiker said:
That would be largely the people who bought a Leaf for HOV lane access, and because gas cost more than it does now, plus a smaller number who got disillusioned with EVs because of the Leaf's resale and capacity drops.
We're among those who are not planning to replace with an EV.

- Our lease extension is coming to an end.
- Nissan refuses to extend the lease any longer.
- Our residual is an insane $20,000 on a 3yr old car with 36,000 miles.
- 2016 lease rates are still much too high because residuals on new cars have dropped severely.
- 2015 are cheap but we fear they'll lose much more value because of the 2016 LEAF, 200 mile LEAF, Bolt, etc.
- No other EVs have become available in my area.

I've loved driving an EV and have heavily promoted it. But I'm not in it to be at a big financial disadvantage. We can get a good price on an ICE and even figuring 3 year depreciation, it works out cheaper than getting a LEAF at currently available prices. My commute has also changed where L2 charging is no longer available at work making it a challenge to handle any deviations. The flexibility afforded by longer range has become a necessity.
 
Good points, DM. I'm hoping for a memorial Day sale like the one in which I leased my 2013. I may be able to lease a 2016 anyway, but only because I'm better off financially than I was in 2013. Otherwise - and this may happen anyway, if lease rates stay insanely high - I'll turn my SV in and look for one used, probably at auction or on Ebay. I'm not, however, likely to buy an ICE, although I hope to spend much of the warm weather riding the Zero motorcycle I just bought...
 
Sadly the cost of ownership of the Leaf didn't pan out as I hoped. At this juncture I probably wouldn't consider an EV as my next car but since I invested heavily in the EV related home "enhancements" such as solar and L2 EVSE I'll likely go for a second round. After all I do like the idea of gas free driving. I won't settle on less than 200 mile range this time though, or will go with a PHEV. One thing I know for sure it won't be a Nissan.
 
Reading this topic through, it might be good to bring up what you had BEFORE the LEAF and see if indeed you'll end up at the same or better or worse when you feel its time for a change. While there are lots of factors (and typically most car purchases are simply not rational to begin with) here is my own scenario.

I was really interested in the new tech factor early on when we 'reserved' our '12 LEAF online (took 18 months to get one) but living in the midwest, had limited options for full EV's; and sorry just didn't ever like the Prius (which most pundits have said is the car most people had before a LEAF) as well as wanted a 100% electric so it was pretty much the only viable choice even when we took delivery 4 years ago this past month.

We had an '06 Mazda 3 GT (5-door hatchback) that was pretty close size-wise to the LEAF with about 59K miles on it; it was a nice commuter car, did have the advantage that we could take it on much longer trips (which we did on a few occasions) but during its last few years, was pretty much my work commuter. That car listed new for $25K, we bought it for about $19K with a discount and another trade-in ('98 New Beetle TDI) and got $9K in trade against the full MSRP LEAF with it in '11, so after fed tax credit, state EV rebate and trade-in our out of pocket was actually a few hundred bucks less than when we bought the Mazda 3 (not factoring in sales tax, license fees, etc. but EV's are much cheaper to register in IL).

So, our '12 LEAF is now 4 years old with 36K miles (a bit less miles due to its limited range vs. the Mazda 3 after the same time) so will probably have about 56K in another two years -- will it be worth the same $9K as our Mazda 3 was? Most likely not, but unlike that ICE Mazda 3 we won't be needing any of the major stuff that typically has to be done with an ICE (timing belt/chain, valve adjustments, trans flush, etc.) once it gets past 60K miles and hopefully it will still have enough capacity to do enough work commute and errand runs -- how many more than the 6 years, who knows? Really its when our cars start looking shabby (we're in the rust belt after all) and still have a bit of value is when we think of switching (most, but not all the time; we keep a minivan for 12 1/2 years; it was only 'worth' about $600 but got $3,500 during that cash for clunkers deal). We've got perhaps a bit more flexibility than others as we have 3 cars between 2 drivers (although really 4 cars between 3 drivers as my son has his own but occasionally drives the LEAF).

Would we buy another EV? Most definitely but everyone's scenario is probably not like ours --- the above doesn't even cover the running and maintenance costs but with gas so cheap, unless you've traded in a real gas guzzler that needs premium fuel it narrows the difference --- lastly, the EVSE L2 in our garage was also subsidized (out-of-pocket after rebate about $625) but expect to use it for many more years.

What we look for next?-- a nice mid-size SUV PHEV that could cover work commutes using 100% electricity and handle long trips, bad weather and more cargo when needed -- its not here yet but would think more options within 2 years
 
Although those numbers may be similar for BEV follow up purchases, I'd be interested to see if they differ when split out from plugin hybrids.

I can understand going back to ICE for those who's situation changes or who bought EV's to save money or get HOV lane access. Personally, I went EV to reduce my environmental footprint. I'm not thrilled with some of the design drawbacks of the Leaf EV system and resale value, but I am almost certainly replacing my '15 Leaf with another EV. I'm likely to lut a deposit on the Model 3 in March, otherwise, I'll be in a Bolt.
 
roguenode said:
Although those numbers may be similar for BEV follow up purchases, I'd be interested to see if they differ when split out from plugin hybrids.

I can understand going back to ICE for those who's situation changes or who bought EV's to save money or get HOV lane access. Personally, I went EV to reduce my environmental footprint. I'm not thrilled with some of the design drawbacks of the Leaf EV system and resale value, but I am almost certainly replacing my '15 Leaf with another EV. I'm likely to lut a deposit on the Model 3 in March, otherwise, I'll be in a Bolt.

I suspect that those numbers include standard hybrids as well.
The quote was "... Electrified vehicles (including pure electric and plugin hybrids)...".
I suspect if it was ONLY "pure electric and plugin hybrids" the rate of people switching would be far, far lower.
 
Zythryn said:
roguenode said:
Although those numbers may be similar for BEV follow up purchases, I'd be interested to see if they differ when split out from plugin hybrids.

I can understand going back to ICE for those who's situation changes or who bought EV's to save money or get HOV lane access. Personally, I went EV to reduce my environmental footprint. I'm not thrilled with some of the design drawbacks of the Leaf EV system and resale value, but I am almost certainly replacing my '15 Leaf with another EV. I'm likely to lut a deposit on the Model 3 in March, otherwise, I'll be in a Bolt.
I suspect that those numbers include standard hybrids as well.
The quote was "... Electrified vehicles (including pure electric and plugin hybrids)...".
I suspect if it was ONLY "pure electric and plugin hybrids" the rate of people switching would be far, far lower.
I don't read it that way - the article was talking about PEVs, and my interpretation of the "Electrified vehicles (including pure electric and plugin hybrids)" quote was to make it clear to all the 'only a BEV is an electric vehicle' purists that the stat includes PHEVs (although an HEV is certainly an EV as well, if you're not a purist). GCR certainly knows the difference, although they were just quoting Edmund's. Reading the Edmund's article it's ambiguous, but the general tone of the article seems to be referring to PEVs.
 
Zythryn said:
I suspect that those numbers include standard hybrids as well.
The quote was "... Electrified vehicles (including pure electric and plugin hybrids)...".
I suspect if it was ONLY "pure electric and plugin hybrids" the rate of people switching would be far, far lower.

Mark Twain: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics"
 
Yep, I agree on all points and face the same dilemma!

dm33 said:
I've loved driving an EV and have heavily promoted it. But I'm not in it to be at a big financial disadvantage. We can get a good price on an ICE and even figuring 3 year depreciation, it works out cheaper than getting a LEAF at currently available prices.
 
This is among the reasons there needs to be a price on carbon, particularly as the government incentives on EVs expire in the years to come. With the right policies in place, the market will naturally gravitate toward lower-carbon transportation. Particularly if a carbon tax is implemented in a revenue-neutral manner, the long term effect on the economy will actually be positive.
TomT said:
Yep, I agree on all points and face the same dilemma!

dm33 said:
I've loved driving an EV and have heavily promoted it. But I'm not in it to be at a big financial disadvantage. We can get a good price on an ICE and even figuring 3 year depreciation, it works out cheaper than getting a LEAF at currently available prices.
 
abasile said:
dm33 said:
I've loved driving an EV and have heavily promoted it. But I'm not in it to be at a big financial disadvantage. We can get a good price on an ICE and even figuring 3 year depreciation, it works out cheaper than getting a LEAF at currently available prices.
This is among the reasons there needs to be a price on carbon, particularly as the government incentives on EVs expire in the years to come. With the right policies in place, the market will naturally gravitate toward lower-carbon transportation. Particularly if a carbon tax is implemented in a revenue-neutral manner, the long term effect on the economy will actually be positive.
What needs to be and what will be are obviously miles apart for the near future, at least as far as national regulations go. Nothing's going to happen in this area before Jan. 2017 at the earliest, and barring a wholesale shift in the control of congress then, nothing will happen before 2019, and so on.
 
I guess it depends who you ask.

http://insideevs.com/ford-plug-owner-survey-83-consider-solar-90-buy-another-ev/

Ford says 92% of BEV and 94% of PHEV drivers plan to buy another electric car.
 
GRA said:
... All but the most blinded by love fanbois knew this already...

In my experience, when someone invokes "fanboi" they are generally grinding an axe.

I have enjoyed my 2 EVs for multiple reasons. I intend to keep driving electric though of course that is predicated on being able to find one that meets my circumstances.
 
My sentiments exactly. I'd like to continue with a pure BEV, but it has to be one that meets my needs AND has a reasonable ROI... Otherwise, I'll temporarily go in a different direction...

Nubo said:
I intend to keep driving electric though of course that is predicated on being able to find one that meets my circumstances.
 
aarond12 said:
I guess it depends who you ask.

http://insideevs.com/ford-plug-owner-survey-83-consider-solar-90-buy-another-ev/

Ford says 92% of BEV and 94% of PHEV drivers plan to buy another electric car.
As the article I linked made clear, what people say they plan to do, and what they do often bear little relationship (not that that's a surprise).
 
Nubo said:
GRA said:
... All but the most blinded by love fanbois knew this already...
In my experience, when someone invokes "fanboi" they are generally grinding an axe.

I have enjoyed my 2 EVs for multiple reasons. I intend to keep driving electric though of course that is predicated on being able to find one that meets my circumstances.
I assume you aren't denying that fanbois exist, here and elsewhere? Their prevalence here has certainly decreased over the past few years, as the experience of living with the limitations of current gen affordable BEVs has made the majority of enthusiasts more objective, but there are still fanbois around. If you consider that pointing that out constitutes grinding an axe, then it is. As it is, we're only now moving into the era where affordable BEVs that will (likely) be acceptable to mainstream consumers will soon (well, Tesla-soon) arrive.
 
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