GRA
Posts: 10330
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Electric-Car Buyers Not As Loyal To The Plug As They Think

Fri Jan 08, 2016 5:52 pm

Via GCR:
Electric-Car Buyers Not As Loyal To The Plug As They Think
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/110 ... they-think

All but the most blinded by love fanbois knew this already, but this is the first data I've seen:
It's often said that once you drive an electric car, you'll never want to go back to one with a conventional engine. And various surveys of first-time drivers to actual plug-in car buyers support that notion. But some new data indicate that people who've owned an electric car don't, in fact, always buy another one. . . .

According to Edmunds data, only 29 percent of people who traded in an electric-powered vehicle (including pure EVs and plug-in hybrid cars) this year went on to purchase another electric-powered vehicle.

Interestingly, about 33 percent of electric-powered trade-ins this year instead went toward a new truck or SUV. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

LeftieBiker
Moderator
Posts: 11987
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: Electric-Car Buyers Not As Loyal To The Plug As They Think

Fri Jan 08, 2016 6:39 pm

That would be largely the people who bought a Leaf for HOV lane access, and because gas cost more than it does now, plus a smaller number who got disillusioned with EVs because of the Leaf's resale and capacity drops.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

smkettner
Posts: 7338
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2010 10:13 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Feb 2014
Location: Orange County, CA

Re: Electric-Car Buyers Not As Loyal To The Plug As They Think

Fri Jan 08, 2016 6:51 pm

Quote: "Interestingly, about 33 percent of electric-powered trade-ins this year instead went toward a new truck or SUV. . . ."

What is the EV truck or EV SUV that is available? Life can change with no EV option.
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV
RAV4 traded in for I-Pace Dec 2018

knightmb
Posts: 420
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:41 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Sep 2013
Leaf Number: 414897
Location: Franklin, TN

Re: Electric-Car Buyers Not As Loyal To The Plug As They Think

Fri Jan 08, 2016 7:05 pm

smkettner wrote:Quote: "Interestingly, about 33 percent of electric-powered trade-ins this year instead went toward a new truck or SUV. . . ."

What is the EV truck or EV SUV that is available? Life can change with no EV option.

The same people that buy from peer ownership pressure also, meaning you want to keep up with the neighbors as they drive home in their new, *cheap* SUV/Truck and want to be cool like them, regardless of common sense telling you that you'll be spending a fortune on gas/repairs/maintenance in the future.

Plenty people probably have a good reason to need the utility of a Truck/SUV, but many certainly do not when using it to commute to work or just want to look cool for friends. I have a truck but I use the Leaf to do the same stuff that the truck had task to do before, using a trailer on my Leaf. Now I can haul around heavy items, save a ton on gas, plus wear and tear on the truck. The truck has really gathered a lot of dust now because short of needing the 4x4 capability, the Leaf really can be adapted to a lot more roles than just a car.

dm33
Posts: 690
Joined: Sat May 18, 2013 4:43 am
Delivery Date: 31 May 2013
Location: Raleigh, NC

Re: Electric-Car Buyers Not As Loyal To The Plug As They Think

Fri Jan 08, 2016 7:56 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:That would be largely the people who bought a Leaf for HOV lane access, and because gas cost more than it does now, plus a smaller number who got disillusioned with EVs because of the Leaf's resale and capacity drops.

We're among those who are not planning to replace with an EV.

- Our lease extension is coming to an end.
- Nissan refuses to extend the lease any longer.
- Our residual is an insane $20,000 on a 3yr old car with 36,000 miles.
- 2016 lease rates are still much too high because residuals on new cars have dropped severely.
- 2015 are cheap but we fear they'll lose much more value because of the 2016 LEAF, 200 mile LEAF, Bolt, etc.
- No other EVs have become available in my area.

I've loved driving an EV and have heavily promoted it. But I'm not in it to be at a big financial disadvantage. We can get a good price on an ICE and even figuring 3 year depreciation, it works out cheaper than getting a LEAF at currently available prices. My commute has also changed where L2 charging is no longer available at work making it a challenge to handle any deviations. The flexibility afforded by longer range has become a necessity.

LeftieBiker
Moderator
Posts: 11987
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2018
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: Electric-Car Buyers Not As Loyal To The Plug As They Think

Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:14 pm

Good points, DM. I'm hoping for a memorial Day sale like the one in which I leased my 2013. I may be able to lease a 2016 anyway, but only because I'm better off financially than I was in 2013. Otherwise - and this may happen anyway, if lease rates stay insanely high - I'll turn my SV in and look for one used, probably at auction or on Ebay. I'm not, however, likely to buy an ICE, although I hope to spend much of the warm weather riding the Zero motorcycle I just bought...
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

Valdemar
Posts: 2598
Joined: Tue May 10, 2011 10:32 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Sep 2011
Location: Oak Park, CA

Re: Electric-Car Buyers Not As Loyal To The Plug As They Think

Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:02 pm

Sadly the cost of ownership of the Leaf didn't pan out as I hoped. At this juncture I probably wouldn't consider an EV as my next car but since I invested heavily in the EV related home "enhancements" such as solar and L2 EVSE I'll likely go for a second round. After all I do like the idea of gas free driving. I won't settle on less than 200 mile range this time though, or will go with a PHEV. One thing I know for sure it won't be a Nissan.
'11 SL, totaled
-1CB@33k/21mo, -2CB@53k/33mo, -3CB@68k/41mo, -4CB(41.5AHr)@79k/49mo, -5CB(38.85AHr)@87.5k/54mo
-0CB(66.14AHr)@87.5k/54mo (BBB), -1CB(53.92Ahr)@140k/29mo,
51.1AHr, SOH 80%, 150k miles

9kW Solar

User avatar
redLEAF
Posts: 1707
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 12:38 pm
Delivery Date: 23 Dec 2011
Location: Chicago, IL

Re: Electric-Car Buyers Not As Loyal To The Plug As They Think

Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:20 am

Reading this topic through, it might be good to bring up what you had BEFORE the LEAF and see if indeed you'll end up at the same or better or worse when you feel its time for a change. While there are lots of factors (and typically most car purchases are simply not rational to begin with) here is my own scenario.

I was really interested in the new tech factor early on when we 'reserved' our '12 LEAF online (took 18 months to get one) but living in the midwest, had limited options for full EV's; and sorry just didn't ever like the Prius (which most pundits have said is the car most people had before a LEAF) as well as wanted a 100% electric so it was pretty much the only viable choice even when we took delivery 4 years ago this past month.

We had an '06 Mazda 3 GT (5-door hatchback) that was pretty close size-wise to the LEAF with about 59K miles on it; it was a nice commuter car, did have the advantage that we could take it on much longer trips (which we did on a few occasions) but during its last few years, was pretty much my work commuter. That car listed new for $25K, we bought it for about $19K with a discount and another trade-in ('98 New Beetle TDI) and got $9K in trade against the full MSRP LEAF with it in '11, so after fed tax credit, state EV rebate and trade-in our out of pocket was actually a few hundred bucks less than when we bought the Mazda 3 (not factoring in sales tax, license fees, etc. but EV's are much cheaper to register in IL).

So, our '12 LEAF is now 4 years old with 36K miles (a bit less miles due to its limited range vs. the Mazda 3 after the same time) so will probably have about 56K in another two years -- will it be worth the same $9K as our Mazda 3 was? Most likely not, but unlike that ICE Mazda 3 we won't be needing any of the major stuff that typically has to be done with an ICE (timing belt/chain, valve adjustments, trans flush, etc.) once it gets past 60K miles and hopefully it will still have enough capacity to do enough work commute and errand runs -- how many more than the 6 years, who knows? Really its when our cars start looking shabby (we're in the rust belt after all) and still have a bit of value is when we think of switching (most, but not all the time; we keep a minivan for 12 1/2 years; it was only 'worth' about $600 but got $3,500 during that cash for clunkers deal). We've got perhaps a bit more flexibility than others as we have 3 cars between 2 drivers (although really 4 cars between 3 drivers as my son has his own but occasionally drives the LEAF).

Would we buy another EV? Most definitely but everyone's scenario is probably not like ours --- the above doesn't even cover the running and maintenance costs but with gas so cheap, unless you've traded in a real gas guzzler that needs premium fuel it narrows the difference --- lastly, the EVSE L2 in our garage was also subsidized (out-of-pocket after rebate about $625) but expect to use it for many more years.

What we look for next?-- a nice mid-size SUV PHEV that could cover work commutes using 100% electricity and handle long trips, bad weather and more cargo when needed -- its not here yet but would think more options within 2 years
2018 smart ED Brabus (leased)
Sapphire Blue Metallic
2017 Tesla Model 3 LR RWD; EAP; 19" sport wheels
Red Multi-coat
2015 VW e-Golf LE (traded-in for Model 3)
2012 Nissan LEAF SL (traded-in at 5 yrs; 46K miles)
EVSE: 10/07/11 Schneider EVlink

roguenode
Forum Supporter
Posts: 24
Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2015 12:22 pm
Delivery Date: 19 Sep 2015
Leaf Number: 322627
Location: Foothills west of Boulder, CO

Re: Electric-Car Buyers Not As Loyal To The Plug As They Think

Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:59 am

Although those numbers may be similar for BEV follow up purchases, I'd be interested to see if they differ when split out from plugin hybrids.

I can understand going back to ICE for those who's situation changes or who bought EV's to save money or get HOV lane access. Personally, I went EV to reduce my environmental footprint. I'm not thrilled with some of the design drawbacks of the Leaf EV system and resale value, but I am almost certainly replacing my '15 Leaf with another EV. I'm likely to lut a deposit on the Model 3 in March, otherwise, I'll be in a Bolt.

Zythryn
Posts: 1090
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 4:49 am

Re: Electric-Car Buyers Not As Loyal To The Plug As They Think

Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:12 pm

roguenode wrote:Although those numbers may be similar for BEV follow up purchases, I'd be interested to see if they differ when split out from plugin hybrids.

I can understand going back to ICE for those who's situation changes or who bought EV's to save money or get HOV lane access. Personally, I went EV to reduce my environmental footprint. I'm not thrilled with some of the design drawbacks of the Leaf EV system and resale value, but I am almost certainly replacing my '15 Leaf with another EV. I'm likely to lut a deposit on the Model 3 in March, otherwise, I'll be in a Bolt.


I suspect that those numbers include standard hybrids as well.
The quote was "... Electrified vehicles (including pure electric and plugin hybrids)...".
I suspect if it was ONLY "pure electric and plugin hybrids" the rate of people switching would be far, far lower.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt, Leaf & Model S
Current owner of Model 3
http://www.netzeromn.com

Return to “Business / Economy and Politics”