I've read a few articles now that reference the upcoming German luxury brand cars as being linked to the 2025 café targets and having nothing to do (or little) with sales from Tesla.
Although I can't find the original article I thought of, which I believe was car and driver, it went through all the planned/rumoured BEV and PHEV that BMW VW group and Daimler were planning and had some interviews with people from those companies. The short version is that their clients demand power, they can't simply cut performance to meet the new CAFE rules because they wouldn't be competitive anymore. Since none of those companies plays in the sub $20k at all or even sub $30k segments in any serious way (VW has lots of selection but poor market share, Mini still sells performance) they can't play the numbers game the way GM Ford and Toyota can. If Cadilac doesn't want to cut 100hp from the CTS-V they can cut it from the cruze/sonic/spark etc... to make up for it.
The other big change that 2025 will bring is a move away from fines paid to the EPA for failure to meet goals and a credit based system similar to CARB where they will have to bid on the open market for them. Not only does this mean giving profit to other auto makers but it doesn't let them plan ahead and could mean a time where they are told to stop selling cars.
Here's a couple articles I found on the topic.
http://www.automobilemag.com/features/columns/1409-will-cafe-burn-the-germans/
"That’s because German automakers face some particular challenges in meeting the new standards. No, it’s not just because Americans don’t like diesels. The standards have a curve for vehicle footprint -- bigger vehicles have lower targets -- but not for price segment. Mercedes and Volkswagen, along with BMW, rely heavily on the sales of luxury vehicles in the United States -- cars that tend to be more powerful and less efficient, aimed at customers less likely to make fuel economy a priority. "
"The biggest issue may not be the standards themselves but the consequences. In the past, the Germans have paid millions of dollars in fines for missing fuel economy targets. It was the cost of doing business. “They used to just sell the cars and pay the fines,” Gott says. But under the new rules they won’t be able to sell cars if they miss the cut. "
IIRC Mercedes pays $300mil + a year pretty much every year.
http://blog.caranddriver.com/the-54...large-heres-how-companies-currently-stack-up/
"These six automakers hold the strongest and weakest positions in the fight for higher fuel economy, based on their 2014 CAFE requirements and fleet averages. While Toyota cars are second only to Tesla when it comes to exceeding the CAFE target, we omitted that brand because Toyota trucks are 0.8 mpg below the current requirement."
I've also read that was the reason Toyota developed and pushed the Prius so much, they had a very fuel inefficient fleet and didn't have the power like the germans to just raise prices and pay a fine.
Notice that Honda and Mazda are the 2 best over all and have very little in hybrids and BEV.
And last but not least most of the time frames and releases of the German cars suggest a staggered system to convert/get their customers use to BEV and PHEV and have the cars out ready for 2025 and not to come in right now and compete with Tesla.
DaveinOlyWA said:
RegGuheert said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
This is completely expected. Some felt that Tesla and Nissan were in competition with each other but that is like saying Ferrari and Subaru were fighting over the same market space.
Exactly.
If the Tesla Model 3 and LEAF 2 with long-range battery are priced similarly, only then they will compete directly.
just as I did not follow the German luxury market, I do not follow the Tesla S or X or whatever. Sure I know "something" about them, sat in one, etc but that is the extent of it.
I have said this many times but we are moving into a more exciting area of EVs. I still stand by my conviction that under 100 mile range EVs will dominate sales for the time being even after 200 mile EVs are out (price is still the #1 factor for us common folk...) but having a choice will be awesome. I am on my 2nd LEAF and imm, neither purchase window had other viable options.
I agree with you, and 70,000 leafs in the US over 4 model years isn't as great of a sales story as they hoped but it's enough to justify a model. I expect that we'll see the current leaf with the new 30kWh sell along side leaf 2 for a few years. Lots of auto makers have done this, Nissan has just recently done it with the Rogue which became the Rogue select when the new model came out. I heard that the Rogue select will be axed next year but only to make room at the plant for other models.
Since Nissan builds the leaf at multiple plants they may be even more cost savings for them but not converting all the lines to the leaf 2 at the same time. They could easily keep the US plant at leaf 1 which would allow it to be cheaper and duty free and bring the first few years of leaf 2 in from Japan. Not only would they not have to pay to update the car's line but they wouldn't have to build the same battery in 2 places too. Some people here have referenced in the past that Nissan has to build the leaf in the US as part of the DOE loans but I doubt that would apply to a second BEV if the first one is still being build in the same place.
