Mckinsey: How they did on 2007 forecasts

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GRA

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Peering into energy’s crystal ball
McKinsey’s predictions were broadly on target in 2007. Here’s how things could turn out during the next eight years.
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/energy_resources_materials/peering_into_energys_crystal_ball?cid=other-eml-alt-mkq-mck-oth-1507
 
Since I can see a bit more "behind the curtain" than some of the other forum members here, these are my predictions (quotes from the article above them):

Gas will be king. In China and the United States, the future is bright for gas because demand is expanding—for example, in the shift to gas for heavy road transport. Cities in California, Illinois, New York, and elsewhere are equipping their fleets with gas-powered vehicles. In Asia, gas isn’t used as much, because resources are monopolized. In Europe, where energy demand is declining, many markets are looking to coal rather than gas.
In the US, gas will experience a growth in where it is applied, however the sustainability of many of the new fracking wells will be much lower than expected. This will increase the cost of natural gas, but other oil product costs will likely be higher, so gas probably will only be used in applications where it is necessary such as combined cycle power plants and trucking. I see no development of CNG for light duty vehicles. In Europe, renewables' current pricing and dependence on Russia for gas has made coal more favorable. Europe's energy efficiency has been developed for some time and I suspect there isn't a lot of "fat" to trim per say. I have no idea about Asia, honestly.

Solar will grow fast but remain small compared with conventional sources. Crashing prices in solar may be the key to bringing power to the more than 1.3 billion people who currently do without. A future of distributed generation would allow countries to leapfrog the cost and complexity of building reliable grids. PV is set to capture by far the largest slice of the renewables pie.
Solar will be king, both distributed on rooftops and in utility scale projects. Obviously, where grids are less reliable, storage with solar can replace or eliminate the need for a grid. However, in developed countries, solar will be so dominate as to dictate the design and scheduling of other generation sources. This is already the case in Germany. The problem of the duck curve will be mitigated with several different technologies. Flexible, fast ramping peakers and combined cycle will be key, along with battery storage and demand response. Residential time of use will be mandatory in the US southwest within 8 years.

Coal will grow more slowly but will remain huge. The king of fossil fuels is still top of the heap in Asia and will probably remain the fuel of choice. While China is making ambitious moves toward cleaner energy, a true shift away from coal is not imminent. In the United States and Europe, coal is under pressure from regulators and low natural-gas prices. According to the US Energy Information Administration, coal still accounts for 39 percent of US electricity generation today, but that’s down from almost 50 percent a decade ago; moreover, no new coal-fired capacity is expected to come on line. And although coal is proving irresistible as much of Europe shifts away from nuclear and continues to experiment with renewables and shale gas, its attraction will fade in time as a result of environmental concerns.
Coal use will shrink around the world except in Europe. China's ambitious moves are stronger than anticipated. Many coal fired plants in the US repower with natural gas or are shuttered for newer, more efficient and flexible combined cycle. Europe will use some coal but only as a backup for renewable sources. Use of gas sources other than Russia's supply may make coal use finally drop out there, but it is unlikely.

Value will continue to migrate from generation to services. Distributed generation, dispatchable demand, and the digital grid are redefining the power system. Disruptors are cutting out traditional utilities as new technologies (and financing techniques) let customers opt out of traditional energy supplies.
I agree with this. Utilities face a completely different business than the one they were built for over 100 years ago. It is and will continue to be a challenging time for them

Finally, a word about outlier technologies—things that aren’t particularly popular or feasible at the moment...<snip>
An outliner technology not mentioned is D-FACTS: Distributed Flexible AC Systems. Essentially, they allow for adjustment in power flow over a power line without adjusting generation. This is HUGE, and will be revolutionary for the power industry. Adjusting power flows is typically done by adjusting generators near the line using calculations known as effectiveness factors. As the mix of generation increasingly comes from renewable sources, they are more at the whim of their own fuel sources and it will be undesirable for them to help adjust power flows.

Nuclear could be a surprise winner. Small modular reactors can provide 24-hour power, without the immense capital expenditure of traditional nuclear reactors. Yes, nuclear is controversial in many countries, but as an emission-free source of constant power, it may be difficult to avoid.
I hope nuclear comes out a winner. I'm not holding my breath in California, however. Eventually, within 100 years, we as a species will see the need to remove carbon from the atmosphere which will require a tremendous amount of energy to do. Fusion or Fission will probably have to power it.

And then there’s hydrogen. Admittedly, the hype has been wrong before, but it’s interesting that Toyota remains optimistic enough to be working with the Japanese government and others to build a fueling infrastructure. Toyota is focused on making longer-range hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicles the standard for clean transportation.
Hydrogen is inefficient and won't see widespread use anywhere outside of pilot projects for years. Batteries will continue to get better and cheaper. Compare the amount of equipment on board the Mirai vs. a Model S. Compare the amount of equipment needed to fuel the car. It's like comparing a CRT to a LCD screen in complexity. All Hydrogen needs is one bad accident and the safety of a 10,000 PSI tank and plumbing will be questioned. I think there's a lot of oil money in Toyota. The hype will continue to be wrong.

Well, we'll see in 8 years how close both are. ;) I plan on printing this out and saving it in my files...
 
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