Automakers seek easier way to meet CARB ZEV rules

http://www.autonews.com/article/20150328/OEM05/303309999/calif-considers-a-plea-for-plug-in-hybrids" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Calif. considers a plea for plug-in hybrids

Automakers seek easier way to meet ZEV rules

...Ford, General Motors, Honda and Toyota, worried that they'll need to offer large incentives to sell their share of ZEVs, are pushing California to rewrite its formula to offer more credit for plug-in hybrids such as the Volt. In a complaint to the California Air Resources Board, they argue that these vehicles address range anxiety and are more likely to be accepted by customers in the short run...

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In other words, Auto makers who have made large investments in PHEVs now realize they can't sell them profitably into a market with current ~$3 a gallon gas (and maybe, ~ $250 a kWh battery) prices without increasing CARB credits. They made a bad bet on high gas prices when they put their PHEVs into development years ago, and now:

...The complaint has opened a small rift within CARB, which oversees the ZEV rules. During a hearing in the fall, Honda and its three allies called for a new formula based on electric vehicle miles traveled, or e-miles.

They pointed to a 2014 analysis by the U.S. Department of Energy's Idaho National Laboratory. Researchers crunched data from 21,600 EVs and plug-in hybrids and found that Volt owners were averaging 9,112 e-miles per year, just shy of Leaf owners' 9,697 e-miles -- even though the Volt can go only half as far before running out of battery power...

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I wonder if it occurs to anyone at CARB that a major factor in limiting EV miles driven in BEVs is the utter failure of California to develop dependable public DC charging infrastructure?

California's failure cuts my LEAF miles by about 3,000 miles a year, effectively forcing me to drive many of those miles in an ICEV.

But the standout comment in this story is this quote:

"I really don't believe by 2030 we're going to be able to get a really large market penetration with pure EVs."
Dan Sperling, California Air Resources Board

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How could a Carb member have come to make such a ridiculous comment?

...In 2013, he served as chair of the California Fuel Cell Partnership, a public-private organization aimed at promoting the commercialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles...

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Sperling" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Oh...

I hope CARB stands their ground. Gasoline prices are very unlikely to be this low much longer. If they give in now, they'll lock-in a negotiation failure that pays fossil-fueled car makers handsomely for many years...

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/2014zevreg/140714%20eVMT%20Proposal.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

PROPOSED MODIFICATIONS TO
THE ZERO EMISSION VEHICLE REGULATIONS
e-VMT Concept
July 14, 2014
Ford (Dan Adsit), General Motors (Jim Ehlmann),
Honda (Robert Bienenfeld), Toyota (Mike Lord)



The real opposition for electric vehicles comes from the four companies above.

Ford and GM have the EVs to sell if they need to.
Honda and Toyota don't, they have 'burnt the ship' its Hydrogen or bust. Considering ToyoHonda market in California, this is a risky strategy.

If VW and Nissan plays their cards right, they might take significant market share from ToyoHonda, 10 years is long time to consumers, but only 1 1/2 product cycles for autocompanies, ie a blink.

edatoakrun said:

But the standout comment in this story is this quote:

"I really don't believe by 2030 we're going to be able to get a really large market penetration with pure EVs."
Dan Sperling, California Air Resources Board

Click to expand...

How could a Carb member have come to make such a ridiculous comment?

Click to expand...

Do the math. I don't think there's a chance for BEVs to make a significant enough dent in the market either - we can't yet make enough batteries on the planet today and still can't even after Tesla, BYD, and Germany's 'giga factories' are on-line. This has been covered in detail on this forum in the past by a number of different members and so far it still stands. From a 'getting CO2 down to 350PPM' perspective, that's not a good thing.