RegGuheert
Well-known member
Germany is the second country in Europe to make a bold move toward renewables this century. Spain was the first, and the outcome was not a success by most accounts. If you are unfamiliar with that story, this article which features one of the key proponents of the Spanish efforts gives a detailed overview of what the dreams were and what the reality turned out to be. One of the key issues for Spain was that they were a bit early with their push into renewables. As this presentation from Standford University points out, the PV industry as a whole was a net energy consumer back in 2006 when Spain made its big push.
Now Germany is many years into its Energiewende (Energy U-turn), and proponents have deemed their efforts to be a huge success. Clearly Germany has achieved levels of renewable generation well beyond what others have achieved to date. The best place to find technical information about the status of the Germany Energiewende effort is from the Fraunhofer Institute. Here are a couple of recent publications:
Electricity production from solar and wind in Germany in 2014
Recent facts about German Photovoltaics
But there is significant controversy within Germany about whether it will succeed, or not. Yes, many of these complaints are from opponents of renewable energy in general, but more recently, the criticism has come from others. Here are some links to articles discussing various concerns about the Energiewende:
Forbes: “Energiewende Is The Worst Possible Example Of How To Implement An Energy Transition”
Top Renewable Energy Expert Warns Of Collapsing Euro Energy Supply…Germany’s Energy Policy “Suicidal”
“Energiewende” Takes A Massive Blow…Top Green Energy Proponent Concedes: “Blunder With Ugly Consequences”
German Federal Analysis Sees “Massive Threats To Security And Reliability Of Electric Power Supply System”
Germany’s Vice Chancellor Starts To Get It…Gravely Warns Germany, Europe “Threatened By High Energy Costs”
More Germans Getting Their Power Cut Off Because They Can’t Afford Paying Sky-High Green Electric Bills
German Mainstream Media Mocks, Fires Stinging Parody At Country’s Collapsing Renewable Energies Project
Renewable Energy Mega-Flop! Germany’s Largest Offshore Wind Park Hasn’t Delivered Any Power Since March
German Renewable Energy Keeps Blacking Out! Supply Often Less Than 2% Of Wintertime Demand
Habitual Offender…Germany’s Wind And Solar Power Go AWOL Third Time In Less Than 30 Days
Unintended cross-border electricity flows in Central Eastern Europe and their regulatory implications
Czech grid operators are taking steps to close their border to uncontrolled electricity flows from Germany
Agreement between Polish (PSE) and German (50Hertz) transmission system operators on phase shifting transformers marks important step towards completion of the European energy market
As you can see, the criticisms are wide-ranging. While cost is certainly a big issue, to me the elephant on the table is the lack of storage in the new system. It seems to me that Germany has raced ahead to put in place massive amounts of renewable generators, but they have not managed to balance that with sufficient storage. Unfortunately, it seems the storage side of the equation is much more expensive and technologically immature than the generators.
So, there are many questions about the future of the Energiewende:
- Will Germany and its neighbors be able to keep the lights on?
- Will Germany be able to continue to add renewable generators?
- How will Germany's grid hold up after all their neighbors close their borders to uncontrolled electricity flows?
- How much will the addition of storage to Germany's electricity grid cost?
Ultimately, the big question is this:
Is Germany, like Spain, still too early in their attempt to transition to renewables?
While it appears that renewable generators are quite mature at this point, the big question is with the storage. There is a reason that renewables did not take off until net metering eliminated storage from the equation.
While I think Germany is headed in the right direction, I also think they are moving too quickly. If they don't quickly catch up the storage part of the equation, they are going to have serious problems keeping the lights on.
Now Germany is many years into its Energiewende (Energy U-turn), and proponents have deemed their efforts to be a huge success. Clearly Germany has achieved levels of renewable generation well beyond what others have achieved to date. The best place to find technical information about the status of the Germany Energiewende effort is from the Fraunhofer Institute. Here are a couple of recent publications:
Electricity production from solar and wind in Germany in 2014
Recent facts about German Photovoltaics
But there is significant controversy within Germany about whether it will succeed, or not. Yes, many of these complaints are from opponents of renewable energy in general, but more recently, the criticism has come from others. Here are some links to articles discussing various concerns about the Energiewende:
Forbes: “Energiewende Is The Worst Possible Example Of How To Implement An Energy Transition”
Top Renewable Energy Expert Warns Of Collapsing Euro Energy Supply…Germany’s Energy Policy “Suicidal”
“Energiewende” Takes A Massive Blow…Top Green Energy Proponent Concedes: “Blunder With Ugly Consequences”
German Federal Analysis Sees “Massive Threats To Security And Reliability Of Electric Power Supply System”
Germany’s Vice Chancellor Starts To Get It…Gravely Warns Germany, Europe “Threatened By High Energy Costs”
More Germans Getting Their Power Cut Off Because They Can’t Afford Paying Sky-High Green Electric Bills
German Mainstream Media Mocks, Fires Stinging Parody At Country’s Collapsing Renewable Energies Project
Renewable Energy Mega-Flop! Germany’s Largest Offshore Wind Park Hasn’t Delivered Any Power Since March
German Renewable Energy Keeps Blacking Out! Supply Often Less Than 2% Of Wintertime Demand
Habitual Offender…Germany’s Wind And Solar Power Go AWOL Third Time In Less Than 30 Days
Unintended cross-border electricity flows in Central Eastern Europe and their regulatory implications
Czech grid operators are taking steps to close their border to uncontrolled electricity flows from Germany
Agreement between Polish (PSE) and German (50Hertz) transmission system operators on phase shifting transformers marks important step towards completion of the European energy market
As you can see, the criticisms are wide-ranging. While cost is certainly a big issue, to me the elephant on the table is the lack of storage in the new system. It seems to me that Germany has raced ahead to put in place massive amounts of renewable generators, but they have not managed to balance that with sufficient storage. Unfortunately, it seems the storage side of the equation is much more expensive and technologically immature than the generators.
So, there are many questions about the future of the Energiewende:
- Will Germany and its neighbors be able to keep the lights on?
- Will Germany be able to continue to add renewable generators?
- How will Germany's grid hold up after all their neighbors close their borders to uncontrolled electricity flows?
- How much will the addition of storage to Germany's electricity grid cost?
Ultimately, the big question is this:
Is Germany, like Spain, still too early in their attempt to transition to renewables?
While it appears that renewable generators are quite mature at this point, the big question is with the storage. There is a reason that renewables did not take off until net metering eliminated storage from the equation.
While I think Germany is headed in the right direction, I also think they are moving too quickly. If they don't quickly catch up the storage part of the equation, they are going to have serious problems keeping the lights on.