Germany's Energiewende: The Future? A Failure? Both?

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RegGuheert

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Germany is the second country in Europe to make a bold move toward renewables this century. Spain was the first, and the outcome was not a success by most accounts. If you are unfamiliar with that story, this article which features one of the key proponents of the Spanish efforts gives a detailed overview of what the dreams were and what the reality turned out to be. One of the key issues for Spain was that they were a bit early with their push into renewables. As this presentation from Standford University points out, the PV industry as a whole was a net energy consumer back in 2006 when Spain made its big push.

Now Germany is many years into its Energiewende (Energy U-turn), and proponents have deemed their efforts to be a huge success. Clearly Germany has achieved levels of renewable generation well beyond what others have achieved to date. The best place to find technical information about the status of the Germany Energiewende effort is from the Fraunhofer Institute. Here are a couple of recent publications:

Electricity production from solar and wind in Germany in 2014

Recent facts about German Photovoltaics

But there is significant controversy within Germany about whether it will succeed, or not. Yes, many of these complaints are from opponents of renewable energy in general, but more recently, the criticism has come from others. Here are some links to articles discussing various concerns about the Energiewende:

Forbes: “Energiewende Is The Worst Possible Example Of How To Implement An Energy Transition”

Top Renewable Energy Expert Warns Of Collapsing Euro Energy Supply…Germany’s Energy Policy “Suicidal”

“Energiewende” Takes A Massive Blow…Top Green Energy Proponent Concedes: “Blunder With Ugly Consequences”

German Federal Analysis Sees “Massive Threats To Security And Reliability Of Electric Power Supply System”

Germany’s Vice Chancellor Starts To Get It…Gravely Warns Germany, Europe “Threatened By High Energy Costs”

More Germans Getting Their Power Cut Off Because They Can’t Afford Paying Sky-High Green Electric Bills

German Mainstream Media Mocks, Fires Stinging Parody At Country’s Collapsing Renewable Energies Project

Renewable Energy Mega-Flop! Germany’s Largest Offshore Wind Park Hasn’t Delivered Any Power Since March

German Renewable Energy Keeps Blacking Out! Supply Often Less Than 2% Of Wintertime Demand

Habitual Offender…Germany’s Wind And Solar Power Go AWOL Third Time In Less Than 30 Days

Unintended cross-border electricity flows in Central Eastern Europe and their regulatory implications

Czech grid operators are taking steps to close their border to uncontrolled electricity flows from Germany

Agreement between Polish (PSE) and German (50Hertz) transmission system operators on phase shifting transformers marks important step towards completion of the European energy market

As you can see, the criticisms are wide-ranging. While cost is certainly a big issue, to me the elephant on the table is the lack of storage in the new system. It seems to me that Germany has raced ahead to put in place massive amounts of renewable generators, but they have not managed to balance that with sufficient storage. Unfortunately, it seems the storage side of the equation is much more expensive and technologically immature than the generators.

So, there are many questions about the future of the Energiewende:

- Will Germany and its neighbors be able to keep the lights on?
- Will Germany be able to continue to add renewable generators?
- How will Germany's grid hold up after all their neighbors close their borders to uncontrolled electricity flows?
- How much will the addition of storage to Germany's electricity grid cost?

Ultimately, the big question is this:

Is Germany, like Spain, still too early in their attempt to transition to renewables?

While it appears that renewable generators are quite mature at this point, the big question is with the storage. There is a reason that renewables did not take off until net metering eliminated storage from the equation.

While I think Germany is headed in the right direction, I also think they are moving too quickly. If they don't quickly catch up the storage part of the equation, they are going to have serious problems keeping the lights on.
 
I've been writing on the overall plan in various thread on this forum. It's very clear that Germany and the rest of the EU recognize that the five pillars of their plan (storage being but one pillar) are out of sync. The number one reason for this? Because it was cheaper, easier, and faster to develop renewable generation than they planned when they started.

Germany has some storage on the grid already - CAES, pumped storage. Also on a grid-scale/grid-centric side they have smallish battery storage. They also have "wind to hydrogen" generation/storage under construction (the first facility went on-line in late 2014).

It's really important to understand that the EnergieWende (EnergyTransition) is only one part of their process, though. The EnergieWende started in the mid-1990s as a bottom-up push by the citizenry to move to renewables. It often required changing laws to allow roof-top generation to be fed into the grid (and when laws failed, some towns simply bought the local power grid from the utility and changed the rules as the new grid operator). Now there are complete towns that have their own large wind turbines, PV, solar-thermal, and biogas-powered hot water and electricity generation and are producing twice the energy they're using. The EnergieWende is about citizens fighting for the right to make their own energy and to control their own environment. In a big sense, it's pushing back against corporate control. One shouldn't be surprised that there are 'hurt feelings' from corporations or their mouthpieces at Forbes. ;)

In addition to the EnergieWende, is the transition of the country to a Third Industrial Revolution where all of the country's energy - that used for electricity, hot water, process/industrial heating, and transportation - is renewable. This is a top-down plan and it, too, is reshaping the energy playing field. The TIR has also been written into law and is mandatory for the entire EU. It's been adopted by the UN for developing nations. It's also in the early stages of implementation in China.

Specific to the pillars and that they got out of sync, we have this from the architect of the plan:

And lest we think this is a lot of academic patter, Germany, since the Chancellor's come in:

Pillar 1: they're at 25% green electricity already and they're heading to 35% by 2020.

Pillar 2: Germany's converted one million buildings in the last seven years - they're producing small amounts of [excess] green electricity and a third of a million net jobs. They've just begun. Denmark's doing just as well. So when people say: "It can't be done" it can be done. And when people say: "Well, show me!" let's take the number one economic power per capita in the world Germany and you'll see it being done right there - at near zero marginal cost for energy.

Pillar 3: Storage. The sun's not always shining...the wind blows at night and you've got to have the electricity during the day... The water tables can be down for hydroelectricity due to climate change drought... These are intermittent energies and we've got to store them. We at the EU level are in favor of ALL storage: batteries, flywheels, capacitors, air compression, water pumping, we like them all! But I must say we put most of our focus at the center of all these storage networks on hydrogen [using electrolysis and fuel cells]. Engineers, this is a tiny thermodynamic loss compared to bringing oil, coal, gas, and uranium every step of conversion and loss to the end user.

Pillar 4 - this is where the internet revolution combines with the new distributed renewable energies to create a nervous system for the new general purpose technology platform. We're using off the shelf internet technology and IT technology and we're transforming the power grid in Europe into an energy internet - a distributed smart grid. If you hear political and business leaders saying: "Oh, we like that smart grid" ask them what kind - centralized or distributed? Centralized means they put an advanced meter on your home and you get all the information only going to them at headquarters and it's all proprietary. That has nothing to do with this. This is an energy internet - a distributed smart grid. It'll connect everything to everything so that when millions of buildings are producing just small amounts of electricity and storing it as hydrogen... Then if you don't need some of that green electricity during the day or week or month, you can program your software right there with your own killer app from home and send that green electricity across an energy internet that in our case extends from the Irish Sea to the doorstep of Russia. Just like we create information, store it in digital, and share it on-line. Deutsche Telekom has tested successfully the smart grid across Germany. Storage is now in with E.ON and Hydrogenics as well - they're just putting it on-line.

Pillar 5 - logistics. Electric vehicles are here; fuel cell cars, trucks, and buses between 2015 and 2017 by the six major auto companies - this is a done deal - these are fuel cell vehicles. We'll be able to plug-in our vehicles anywhere, wherever we park across the country there'll will be a parking [spot] plug right there...plug it back into the main grid which is distributed and get green electricity. Let's say you're at work - keep that computer on. So if that electricity price goes up on the grid the computer will tell your car to send your electricity back to the grid. We're already beginning to do that in Europe [on a small scale].

These five pillars are nothing - they're components. It's only when we connect them that we have what we call the general purpose technology platform. It's an infrastructure technology platform. Do not make the mistake that President Obama made...he got bad advice. He wanted a green economy, he still wants a green economy, he spent billions and billions of dollars of tax money for a green economy - it isn't here. Because he spent it on isolated, siloed, pilot projects. So they'd invest in a solar factory in one state, an electric car factory in another state - unconnected! This is an infrastructure revolution.
We understood this in Europe. We had the five pillars, but we moved pillar 1 quickly, and not the other four. So we put in a huge amount of green electricity because we have feed-in tariffs. That is, you're paid premium for sending your green electricity back to the grid beyond what the price of the market is to encourage early adoption. So we have millions of people putting in a little green electricity. Pillar 1! We didn't move pillar 4 quick enough - the energy internet. So we got millions of little players trying to get green electricity into a grid that's 60 years old, servo-mechanical, centralized, leaks 20% of its electricity and it's overwhelmed by all these little players - it can't handle it. Then Pillar 1 has been so successful we have so much green electricity because of the feed-in tariffs - we didn't move Pillar 3 storage fast enough. We've got regions that are 30, 40, 50, and 60% green electricity and we are losing 3 out of 4 kiloWatts because we're not storing the energy. So the electricity is at night because of the wind - we don't need it at night! Sometimes at high-noon there's so much solar going into the grid that we have negative price - meaning the utility pays you to not put the energy on. Then at midnight it goes back up again because we haven't put in Pillar 3 storage. And now our car companies are petrified because they spent billions on electric and fuel cell vehicles, they're sending them to market but if they don't have an infrastructure to plug them into, it's all lost. So we've got to build this out as an infrastructure revolution. And when we do, this third industrial revolution, this is power to the people - I mean this literally and figuratively.


http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=333790#p333790
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=14559

They're not going to have any problem keeping the lights on, and the use of renewables is not causing higher energy prices. There's more than ample evidence that in Europe, more wind and solar equals higher grid reliability and a reduction in the rate of price increases. In Germany, while fossil fuel prices continue to increase, power from renewables continues to drop in price.
 
Shambles…Energy Professor Declares Germany Energiewende “A Failure”, …”Population Left Disillusioned”

The subtitle reads:
Dr. Kurt Gehlert is certain that the Energiewende has already failed. Or we will drown and cover ourselves in wind turbines.”
An interesting calculation:
Gehlert also scoffs at the idea of using wind-power-to-gas as a method for storing energy, which would be used to fire gas turbines to produce electricity in times of low-winds. And expanding the calculation to 50% constant electrical power from wind energy would require about 470,000 German wind turbines (Currently there are about 25,000). Gehlert elaborates:

The figure is difficult to fathom. Germany has an area of approximately 360,000 square kilometers. That means each of the 470,000 wind turbines would have 0.76 sq km.. The city of Iserlohn alone has an area of 125.5 square kilometers and so would have 165 wind turbines.”
Imagine a world with a wind turbine in every square kilometer. Not very attractive!
 
Ad hominems stacked upon ad hominems. That's all you are capable of when faced with technical calculations which show the extreme absurdity of the Energiewende at this point in time. Unfortunately, many Germans are suffering at this East German approach to managing energy.

The good news of Engiewende is that energy-intensive German businesses are moving out of the country to places with affordable energy, including the United States.
 
With only a small percentage of what will be required built, here are some scenes of the effects of the Energiewende on the German countryside:

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With only a small percentage of what will be required built, here are more scenes of the effects of the Energiewende on the German countryside:

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RegGuheert said:
Ad hominems stacked upon ad hominems. That's all you are capable of when faced with technical calculations which show the extreme absurdity of the Energiewende at this point in time. Unfortunately, many Germans are suffering at this East German approach to managing energy.

The good news of Engiewende is that energy-intensive German businesses are moving out of the country to places with affordable energy, including the United States.
I recommend you review the definition of the ad hominem. I'd also like you to review your posts and note that it's very difficult to hide your own attacks even when attempting to redirect on others. Feel free to knock it off. Starting now. Thanks in advance. Finally, if you think I'm attacking you or anyone else by posting factual and sourced posts, please press the 'report post' button on the lower right as often as you care to. Enjoy!

Feel free to cite a source that supports your assertion that "many Germans are suffering". I've provided sources direct from those Germans - the ones that are pooling their own money to buy the wind turbines they are planting on their own hills. They are taking control of their own power, they are generating about 200% of their own needs via wind, PV, solar thermal, and biogas, and they're selling energy to the rest of the country.

https://vimeo.com/70645514
http://welcometotheenergiewende.blogspot.de/

So, to recap: They are voluntarily investing their own money, they are getting a higher rate of return on their retirement accounts than by holding stocks and bonds, they are completely energy independent (electricity, building heat, hot water, and transportation if they wish), electricity prices and greenhouse gas emissions are both way down, and they are continuing to support their nation's push to 80% renewable power by 2050.

Yeah man - that's horrible. I cannot imagine what those silly Germans are thinking. If they weren't wasting so much money on all these turbines they'd have been able to bail out most of Europe after the US triggered a global financial meltdown...oh...they did? Never mind. :roll: :lol: :lol:

http://cleantechnica.com/2015/02/01/analysis-shows-germanys-energiewende-right-track/

There is a great debate about the success or otherwise of Germany’s Energiewende, or Energy Transition. Most of it is uninformed, and much of it is fuelled by the nuclear and coal industries, which have most to lose from the push into renewables by Europe’s most successful economy.

This series of graphs shows how the renewable targets are on track, have lowered emissions, decoupled energy consumption from economic growth, pushed wholesale prices down to record lows, and are now pushing retail prices down. And it has done some interesting things to the energy mix.

The graphs were prepared in a report by Agora Energiewende, a Berlin-based think tank whose former head Rainer Bakke is now the chief advisor to Germany’s energy and economics minister on the future of the Energiewende.

The first graph shows that the renewable target is still on track. This graph shows the target for 2025, and that will continue to a target of 55-60 per cent by 2035, and 80 per cent by 2050.

agora-re-target-590x297.jpg


agora-emissions-590x311.jpg


agora-prices-wholesale-590x307.jpg


agora-prices-retail-590x288.jpg
 
NeilBlanchard said:
I wish we had that many wind turbines! That is awesome - thanks for posting.
It seems that many in Germany do not share that opinion and the German courts are finally hearing the will of the people: German Court Strikes Down Wind Turbine Project, Citing “Disfigurement Of The Natural Scenery”!
The website of flagship ZDF German public television here writes a very short, well-buried report on a recent fast-track ruling by a German court in Arnsberg concerning the approval of a wind park project in Central Germany. The court found that wind turbines do in fact severely blight the natural landscape and therefore may not be built in areas of particular beauty.

The ruling is the latest development in the rapidly growing public resistance to wind power by German citizens, thus posing another major obstacle for the approval and construction of onshore wind turbines.
Also from the same article:
150 angry citizens protest wind park in Elpe

Meanwhile the WAZ daily here reports that 150 angry residents turned out to protest plans to install 7 large wind turbines in the area under the motto: “Stop the madness!” It was the first protest the town had seen, and is a loud signal that the public is getting fed up.
 
150 people isn't a drip in the statistical bucket, ie, irrelevant in such a large scale issue.

We had more people protesting the updated sex ed curriculum In Ontario Canada!

So far massive success from my point of view.
 
XeonPony said:
So far massive success from my point of view.
From what perspective is it a success? Let's see:

Germany has increased their price of electricity to the second highest in Europe:

europeelectricprice.png


They have destroyed their scenic countryside:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDeyruhSWY4[/youtube]

And what do the German people have to show for it? They have reduced their CO2 emissions by a smaller percentage than all but two other European countries:

co2windsolar.png


That was the main intent, was it not? Not from the chart that there is virtually no correlation between the installation of renewable generators and the reduction of CO2 emissions.

So, how did some European countries reduce their emissions? By going into recession:

co2andgrowth.png


Greece should get a medal!
 
It is clear you are posting fraudulent graphs that confuse causation. Are you a climate change denier ?
 
RegGuheert said:
XeonPony said:
So far massive success from my point of view.
From what perspective is it a success? Let's see:

Germany has increased their price of electricity to the second highest in Europe:

europeelectricprice.png


back in OZ
my 'grandfathered' feed in tariff is about twice what I pay for peak electricity :D
my peak electricity is about twice what I pay for off peak electricity
my offpeak electricity is about twice what a new solar installation get for feed in tariff.

you bet my neighbours are paying me to produce electricity, :roll:
 
It seems that even some climate alarmists who have studied the Energiewende believe it is a failure:
Professor Joachim Weimann said:
For climate protection, we do not need the Energiewende.
Professor Joachim Weimann said:
It is doing nothing for saving resources.
Professor Joachim Weimann said:
It is also doing nothing for jobs and new technology.
Weimann summarizes, saying Germany’s Energiewende resulted in:
Professor Joachim Weimann said:
No energy independence.
Professor Joachim Weimann said:
Negative job creation.
Professor Joachim Weimann said:
A price tag of up to 1.2 trillion euros.
 
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/22/carbon-germany-emissions-idUSL5N0YD3L320150522
FRANKFURT, May 22 (Reuters) - German carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent emissions regulated under the European emissions trading scheme (ETS) in 2014 fell by 4.1 percent to 461.2 million tonnes, according to official national data released on Friday.

The number was published by Germany's carbon registry DEHSt and underscored the general trend of lower pollution in the EU last year.

The bloc's ETS emissions fell 4.5 percent, helped by the rise of renewable energy and mild weather, which lowers energy demand...

The EU is on course to have reached its CO2 reduction target for 2020 - when volume should be 20 percent below emissions in 1990 - six years early.

CO2 and CO2 equivalent of all GHGs has been falling since 1990.
https://unfccc.int/files/ghg_emissions_data/application/pdf/deu_ghg_profile.pdf


agora-emissions-590x311.jpg

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=19308&start=10#p428724

evnow said:
It is clear you are posting fraudulent graphs that confuse causation. Are you a climate change denier ?
:shock:
Naw. He's just another honest man.

doonesberrylarge.jpg
 
Oh, the Horror! Clearly Reg has never seen pictures of Los Angeles smog, or smelled the stuff. I'd be more concerned with bird deaths and noise than having to *look at* what it takes to feed our appetite for energy.
 
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