Ok, here's what I'm thinking...
I noticed that there's conversation being tossed around about raising the federal tax credit to $10K for EVs, and while I would be one of the people who could benefit from that on my next purchase, I'm inclined to shy away from it for 2 reasons. (1) It will never pass with a Republican Congress, (2) It will actually damage the resale of older EVs and encourage them to be taken off the road because it will further encourage people to buy new.
In light of all the discussion on this forum about battery degradation, replacement costs, etc... Here's what I am beginning to realize will happen in about 3-5 years. (1) There will be about 300,000 or more first Gen EVs with significant degradation being taken off the road because (1) the replacement batteries will be too costly, and (2) they won't be able to compete with the incentives of tax credits on the new cars. I see this as both a financial and environmental disaster. First it punishes the early adopters (Nissan in particular) and also has a negative environmental impact because an EV on the road for <100K miles and then considered to be at end of life, is actually worse for the environment than an ICE car because it hasn't had time to completely offset its environment impact.
I suggest that we petition congress to create a federal tax credit toward the purchase of a replacement battery. Hear me out....
Any EV purchased before 2017 (all the Gen1s) will be eligible for a tax credit on the first replacement battery they purchase for the car. Tracked by VIN#, so you get one per car (no more). The tax credit will be equivalent to kwh of capacity and will max out at a specific amount ($2500) and diminish each year until 2022. Example below. The goal of the max $2500 is to shift a lot of the benefit to the low capacity battery pack (sub 33kwh) and not allow the Tesla owners to reap major rewards on the program, since they will likely be able to afford the replacement batteries anyway. The $2500 max also allows nissan to offer a larger replacement pack (up to 33kwh) and still maximize the credit. The rolloff assumes that battery costs will diminish accordingly over time and also provides the biggest benefit to the early adopters, since they took the biggest risk and need the batteries earlier. The credit can only be taken once based on vehicle VIN number and may be taken by an individual owner or by a company that may have an interest in buying end of lease leafs and getting them sold and on the road again.
2016 - $75/kwh credit. (Leaf credit $1800)
2017 - $70/kwh credit. (Leaf credit $1680)
2018 - $65/kwh credit. (Leaf credit $1560)
2019 - $60/kwh credit. (Leaf credit $1440)
2020 - $55/kwh credit. (Leaf credit $1320)
2021 - $50/kwh credit. (Leaf credit $1200)
2022 - $45/kwh credit. (Leaf credit $1080)
2023 - program ends.
I don't know about the rest of you, but if this existed, making a replacement pack for my leaf effectively $4200 installed instead of $6000, it would be enough to sway me to keep the car rather than turn it in?
I noticed that there's conversation being tossed around about raising the federal tax credit to $10K for EVs, and while I would be one of the people who could benefit from that on my next purchase, I'm inclined to shy away from it for 2 reasons. (1) It will never pass with a Republican Congress, (2) It will actually damage the resale of older EVs and encourage them to be taken off the road because it will further encourage people to buy new.
In light of all the discussion on this forum about battery degradation, replacement costs, etc... Here's what I am beginning to realize will happen in about 3-5 years. (1) There will be about 300,000 or more first Gen EVs with significant degradation being taken off the road because (1) the replacement batteries will be too costly, and (2) they won't be able to compete with the incentives of tax credits on the new cars. I see this as both a financial and environmental disaster. First it punishes the early adopters (Nissan in particular) and also has a negative environmental impact because an EV on the road for <100K miles and then considered to be at end of life, is actually worse for the environment than an ICE car because it hasn't had time to completely offset its environment impact.
I suggest that we petition congress to create a federal tax credit toward the purchase of a replacement battery. Hear me out....
Any EV purchased before 2017 (all the Gen1s) will be eligible for a tax credit on the first replacement battery they purchase for the car. Tracked by VIN#, so you get one per car (no more). The tax credit will be equivalent to kwh of capacity and will max out at a specific amount ($2500) and diminish each year until 2022. Example below. The goal of the max $2500 is to shift a lot of the benefit to the low capacity battery pack (sub 33kwh) and not allow the Tesla owners to reap major rewards on the program, since they will likely be able to afford the replacement batteries anyway. The $2500 max also allows nissan to offer a larger replacement pack (up to 33kwh) and still maximize the credit. The rolloff assumes that battery costs will diminish accordingly over time and also provides the biggest benefit to the early adopters, since they took the biggest risk and need the batteries earlier. The credit can only be taken once based on vehicle VIN number and may be taken by an individual owner or by a company that may have an interest in buying end of lease leafs and getting them sold and on the road again.
2016 - $75/kwh credit. (Leaf credit $1800)
2017 - $70/kwh credit. (Leaf credit $1680)
2018 - $65/kwh credit. (Leaf credit $1560)
2019 - $60/kwh credit. (Leaf credit $1440)
2020 - $55/kwh credit. (Leaf credit $1320)
2021 - $50/kwh credit. (Leaf credit $1200)
2022 - $45/kwh credit. (Leaf credit $1080)
2023 - program ends.
I don't know about the rest of you, but if this existed, making a replacement pack for my leaf effectively $4200 installed instead of $6000, it would be enough to sway me to keep the car rather than turn it in?
