edatoakrun
Posts: 5222
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Are LEAF concerns evidence of anxiety?

Sun Feb 01, 2015 1:17 pm

With the proliferation of threads and off-topic comments on unrelated threads which seem to indicate many MNL members may be allowing their underlying anxieties distort their LEAF experiences, I thought it might be a good idea to begin a therapeutic thread.

The excerpted article below suggests pre-existing conditions, specifically two anxieties, are barriers to BEV sales:

Psychological Barriers Are Holding Back Electric Vehicle Adoption

January 29th, 2015 by Joshua S Hill

A new study investigating the barriers preventing people from buying electric vehicles has identified two separate issues that hold people back — range anxiety and resale anxiety...

The study, published in the “Articles in Advance” section of Manufacturing and Service Operations Management (M&SOM)...

The authors of the report — Michael K. Lim of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Ho-Yin Mak of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, and Ying Rong of Shanghai Jiao Tong University — identified two specific psychological barriers that prevent people from purchasing electric vehicles:
range anxiety — the concern that an electric vehicle’s driving range will not be enough for the needs of the driver (however, at least one writer has intelligently noted that “range anxiety anxiety” seems to be the real issue)
resale anxiety — the concern that the price of used electric vehicles will drop in the future, making resale a difficult option...

https://cleantechnica.com/2015/01/29/ps ... -adoption/

I can't help noticing that many with LEAFs still have these anxieties, and that those fears are increasingly entering discussions, even on MNL threads on topics unrelated to either issue:

Replacement LEAF battery cheap compared to i3

viewtopic.php?f=27&t=19017&start=30

I am far from being anxiety-free (in general) and admit I had both those anxieties to some extent before the last 44+ months and 33k+ miles of experience with my LEAF has proven these anxieties largely without foundation.

Even with my range slightly reduced as compared with new, and with January temperatures (abnormally warm-or perhaps the new normal of anthropogenic global warming?) My LEAF made eight trips last month of 50-60 miles, at ~30-45 mph speeds, including ~2000 ft. descent and ascent each, starting from "80%", and returning well before VLBW, requiring only ~60-65% of my total present available capacity.

I also made two range/capacity test trips last month of over ~90 and ~94 miles at ~25-45 mph speeds with over 5,500 ft total ascent and descent (if not hyper-mileing, close to it) using the capacity allowed between "100%" and ~VLBW, or ~88% of my total present available capacity.

So I have every reason to expect my current LEAF, with its OE battery pack, will meet my minimum requirements for at least a few more years, and ~five or six more if I'm lucky (and even if no opportunities to upgrade become available) and so I have a lot less "range anxiety anxiety" than I had four years ago, before delivery.

Unexpected (by me, at least) large reductions in both gasoline (by ~half) and New BEV prices have reduced the resale value of my LEAF to about the worst case I anticipated ~four years ago, but my own TCO since delivery is still no higher than for any comparable ICEV, and lower than most.

Since I doubt the price of gas will fall anywhere near as fast in the future, nor will BEV prices (net-incentives) I have far less anxiety about future depreciation expenses.

So, can anyone suggest any rational reason why I should still have either of these anxieties?

Can anyone offer rational explanation, for why so many MNL members seem to be so anxious, on both counts?
no condition is permanent

TimLee
Posts: 2810
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:40 am
Delivery Date: 17 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2026
Location: Chattanooga, TN

Re: Are LEAF concerns evidence of anxiety?

Sun Feb 01, 2015 1:48 pm

edatoakrun wrote:...Can anyone offer rational explanation, for why so many MNL members seem to be so anxious, on both counts?

There is a sigificant variation in attitudes and opinions on just about anything.
What you are calling anxious, many others consider to be realism.

Just like many disagreed with a large % of what you said about capacity degradation.

But I am surprised with the number of people with a new 2015 that are so carefully tracking battery data and worrying about capacity declines.

There is just too much inaccuracy in the measurements and noise in the information to be that anxious about data on a 2015.

Tim Lee
Chattanooga, TN

Man. Date: 03/10/11, VIN # 2026
Delivered 05-17-2011
Blue Ocean, 2011 SL-eTec

johnrhansen
Posts: 1100
Joined: Mon Aug 12, 2013 7:23 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Jun 2013
Leaf Number: 409445
Location: Seattle, WA

Re: Are LEAF concerns evidence of anxiety?

Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:55 pm

people are just afraid of change in general. I've had people tell me that cars should have an engine. Period. End of discussion. They don't want to talk about it any more! That's the way it always was they say.
2013 S model with quick charge package.
AV 30 amp level 2 EVSE, Bosch PowerMax 30 Amp EVSE, EVSE upgraded EVSE.

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 13133
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2018
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Are LEAF concerns evidence of anxiety?

Sun Feb 01, 2015 3:04 pm

a very wide range of experiences lends to just a wide a range of expectations, needs and results. I have to think this is not unexpected. Really is normal I think.

The issue is we want to put the LEAF in the "perfect fit for all our needs" category because that is how we look at our cars. For special needs; we have another car or truck or whatever. So to have a car that only fits 90% or 99.9% of our needs is very much an alien concept.

To address that unfulfilled need, we much explore uncharted territory like renting, borrowing or simply buying a car that will be designed to sit 95% of the time.

Now how we rationalize whatever choice we have taken above is just as varied and many as the reasons, environments and the transportation needs out there. The big thing is what works for you. It won't be the same as what works for me. I can tell you why it works but then I get too many people who think I am compromising based on their level of acceptance.

well, you might be luckier, richer or simply more together than me but my life is filled with constantly weighing my options. IOW, my ENTIRE life is a compromise. It is always balancing needs, wants, and family into what I can accept.

This LEAF is no different and to be quite honest with ya; has become one of the lesser challenges when weighed with the benefits I have to face
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 8743 miles, 485 GIDs, 37.6 kwh 111.39 Ahr , SOH 96.49, Hx 114.98
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LeftieBiker
Posts: 9221
Joined: Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 am
Delivery Date: 31 May 2013
Location: Upstate New York, US

Re: Are LEAF concerns evidence of anxiety?

Sun Feb 01, 2015 3:16 pm

There is no "resale anxiety" when you lease.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

Stoaty
Posts: 4467
Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2010 9:50 pm
Delivery Date: 12 Jun 2011
Leaf Number: 3871
Location: West Los Angeles

Re: Are LEAF concerns evidence of anxiety?

Sun Feb 01, 2015 3:29 pm

The Battery Aging Model predicts my capacity will fall to a level in about 2.5 years such that it won't meet my driving needs... and I am currently running about 0.5% worse than than the Battery Aging Model. Thus I will get 6 years and 60,000 miles out of my Leaf, far from what Nissan promised. Anxious, no. Annoyed, yes.
2011 Leaf with 62,000 miles given to Nephew
2013 Tesla Model S85 with 251 miles rated range at full charge
Leaf Spy Manual
Battery Aging Model Spreadsheet

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DNAinaGoodWay
Posts: 2765
Joined: Mon Dec 17, 2012 1:43 am
Delivery Date: 03 Dec 2012
Leaf Number: 23156
Location: Central Massachusetts

Re: Are LEAF concerns evidence of anxiety?

Sun Feb 01, 2015 3:30 pm

As a leasee, valuation drop causes me no anxiety, in fact, NMAC offering $5k off buyouts at lease end and the prospect of cheap used LEAFs counters anxiety very well.

Range anxiety, after more than two years, and having switched to a '15, no longer exists. Range understanding has become second nature.

But it's perfectly natural for someone who's never driven a BEV to worry about range and value. They only have experience with ICE, and there's a learning curve. A lot of ICE drivers don't associate driving with thinking, it's totally second nature for them, they just get in and go, fuel is everywhere, anxiety is mostly from mechanical problems.
'12 SL last reading @ 2 yr, 22k, 260 GIDs, 62.35 Ahr

'15 SV w/QC, Mfd 5/14, Leased 8/14, 292 GIDs, 64.38 Ahr when new
@ 36 months, 34k, 270 GID, 57.49 Ahr

'17 Bolt LT



6.72 kW Array

RonDawg
Posts: 2826
Joined: Sat Jan 12, 2013 3:46 am
Delivery Date: 11 Jan 2013
Leaf Number: 027089
Location: SoCal

Re: Are LEAF concerns evidence of anxiety?

Sun Feb 01, 2015 5:25 pm

johnrhansen wrote:people are just afraid of change in general.


This. Most of those with a doubt of the capability of an electric car always come up with "But what if I have to suddenly take a 150 mile trip?" I then ask, "And how often does that happen?"

For many people, private automobile ownership does represent the ability to do things at a whim, and (with the current state of EV technology and infrastructure) an EV does pose a major challenge to that. Even a Tesla with the biggest battery does require some planning, which is something you don't really have to do with an ICEV beyond carrying enough money/credit to pay for your fuel.

DaveinOlyWA wrote:The issue is we want to put the LEAF in the "perfect fit for all our needs" category because that is how we look at our cars. For special needs; we have another car or truck or whatever. So to have a car that only fits 90% or 99.9% of our needs is very much an alien concept.

To address that unfulfilled need, we much explore uncharted territory like renting, borrowing or simply buying a car that will be designed to sit 95% of the time.


The majority of us own/lease cars that are far more than what we need for the majority of the time. I can count on one hand how often the back seat of my Leaf got used; I could have easily made do with a Smart ED as a daily driver had those been available in the US when I got my Leaf. But most people won't buy a two seater unless it's a fun car like a Miata or Porsche. Never mind all the large SUVs out there that are more often than not carrying just one person.

It's like people who justify owning a full size pickup because they "need it when they go to the home center." But if you really look at how often they need to transport an item that won't fit in anything smaller, for example a 4x8 sheet of plywood/drywall, or a major appliance, that happens only a handful of times a year. Home Depot and Lowes now offer hourly truck rental service, and there's still UHaul and other conventional vehicle rental sources. But going back to the spontaneity that I mentioned above, people think it's a "hassle" to go through that trouble, preferring instead to put up with the abominable fuel economy, the difficulty in parking, and the clumsy handling the remaining 300+ days of the year instead.
Blue Ocean 2012 Leaf SV, lost that 1st bar at 34 months/26,435 miles. Lease returned 2 months later. Final LeafStat figures: 225 Gids, 17.44 kWH, SOC 91.89%, SOH 82.36%, 69.49% HX, 54.57 Ahr, battery temp 61.8 F.
Now driving a 2015 VW eGolf SEL.

AndyH
Posts: 6384
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:43 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: Are LEAF concerns evidence of anxiety?

Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:56 pm

RonDawg wrote:
johnrhansen wrote:people are just afraid of change in general.


This. Most of those with a doubt of the capability of an electric car always come up with "But what if I have to suddenly take a 150 mile trip?" I then ask, "And how often does that happen?"

When it comes to an emotional state, 'how often' isn't relevant. I didn't expect my dad's triple bypass a few years back or my 3000 miles in driving back and forth between Texas and Florida. The situation was stressful enough without having to figure out where I was going to get a car when I needed it.

The auto industry has been selling 'convenience' and 'freedom' for a very long time - and there's plenty of 'mental inertia' in Joe Public's thought and emotion systems. We're willing to turn the heat down to get a bit more range, or accept owning a 'local' vehicle that can get us to the local car rental when necessary, but most Americans aren't 'there' yet, and might not be for another 20-30 years.

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Nubo
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Location: Vallejo, CA

Re: Are LEAF concerns evidence of anxiety?

Mon Feb 02, 2015 9:47 am

Had ours been a single-vehicle household the decision to get an EV would have taken a lot more thought. Likewise if we lived in an apartment.

EVs are not for everyone at this point. Then again my situation is far from unique! There are millions of buyers who could be just as happy with an EV as I am. This will continue to drive the first wave.

And as the rolling fleet becomes larger, various market and political forces will conspire to improve the vehicles and infrastructure in a self-reinforcing feedback loop.

There's no point in worrying about the current state of EVs. They've already gone past the tipping point.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

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