Q:Do Gas Prices Correlate With Plug-in Vehicle Sales? Ans:NO

http://www.pluginamerica.org/drivers-seat/do-gas-prices-correlate-plug-vehicle-sales" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Very Low +ve correlation with PHEVs



Very Low -ve correlation with BEVs



Almost flat for all PEV

I am skeptical that plug-in vehicle sales are as independent of fuel prices as we would all like to believe. The issue I see with that analysis is that the market for plug-ins is emerging. Many performance-oriented, technology-driven and environmentally-conscious buyers are just now becoming educated about EVs, and the market is experiencing rapid growth. However, if today's fuel prices were higher, it is quite conceivable that the plug-in market would be growing at an even faster rate.

When purchasing big ticket items like cars, a great many of us feel a need to rationalize our decisions, and for an EV purchase, saving money on fuel is certainly one selling point. This is true even for plenty of Tesla buyers, as evidenced by Tesla's website previously touting "fuel savings" as a factor making the Model S relatively more affordable.

Also, plug-in vehicle buyers seem to be more educated and savvy than average car buyers. We know that fuel prices are often cyclical and will not stay low forever, so we consciously seek to avoid basing a car purchase decision on last week's or last month's drop in gas prices. On the other hand, if fuel prices remain low for an extended period, then even the most savvy buyers will begin to factor those low prices into their cost of ownership calculations.

Low fuel prices should serve as a wake-up call to continue our efforts to remind others of the many other, excellent reasons to drive electric.

I suspect there is a correlation with hybrid vehicles and light plug ins (like the prius plug in). People I communicate with seem more interested in buying SUVs, so will also postulate a theory that the gas guzzlers will do better.

I did see an article today that Prius sales are way down, sorry I don't have the link now. They pointed out that at today's gas prices it would take something like 28 years to make back the higher purchase price in gas savings. Of course that assumes we are looking at 28 years of prices at these levels.

LTLFTcomposite said:

I did see an article today that Prius sales are way down, sorry I don't have the link now. They pointed out that at today's gas prices it would take something like 28 years to make back the higher purchase price in gas savings. Of course that assumes we are looking at 28 years of prices at these levels.

Click to expand...

I think this suggests that EV owners are more ideologically attached to their vehicles, and are therefore a bit more price inflexible than Prius owners. The Prius, owing to its much wider adoption, likely has a much more varied customer base, and consumers, generally, react strongly to price changes.

I'm fairly sure that PIP sales are related to the periodic 'lease sales' that Toyota runs on them. When a PIP costs less than a Prius II to lease, they fly off the lots. These promotions are in turn correlated to whether or not Toyota needs to sell them at a given time to earn more ZEV credits and clear out that year's inventory, not to fuel prices. I think that many BEV sales are at least related to fuel prices, but not directly tied to them.

bigrob90 said:

LTLFTcomposite said:

I did see an article today that Prius sales are way down, sorry I don't have the link now. They pointed out that at today's gas prices it would take something like 28 years to make back the higher purchase price in gas savings. Of course that assumes we are looking at 28 years of prices at these levels.

Click to expand...

I think this suggests that EV owners are more ideologically attached to their vehicles, and are therefore a bit more price inflexible than Prius owners. The Prius, owing to its much wider adoption, likely has a much more varied customer base, and consumers, generally, react strongly to price changes.

Click to expand...

Perhaps in part.
I think a bigger factor is that the ONLY reason to buy a hybrid is fuel savings.
With EVs you get a better quality, more fun drive experience.

I think a bigger factor is that the ONLY reason to buy a hybrid is fuel savings.

Click to expand...

Many Prius drivers will attest that it's nice to have the engine off while stopped, and at low speeds on level road. After driving one for a while, it seems crude and even mildly obscene to have the car sitting at a long light with the engine running. It's also very nice to have A/C available when parked with the engine off.

LTLFTcomposite said:

I did see an article today that Prius sales are way down, sorry I don't have the link now. They pointed out that at today's gas prices it would take something like 28 years to make back the higher purchase price in gas savings. Of course that assumes we are looking at 28 years of prices at these levels.

Click to expand...

Those articles are always FUD anyway. They never compare cars with the same cargo room, seating capacity, or luxury features.

I bought a 2005 Prius several years ago for about $11,000. That was cheaper than I could get a Camry, Matrix, or Corolla with the same condition/miles on odometer in my town.

I'm currently looking at used Leafs at around the that same price point but 6 to 7 years newer. Some have only 15,000 miles on them some have 40,000 miles but ever single one has more luxury features than my old 2005 and every single one is nicer than the bare bones cars these sorts of articles want to compare them to.

People that write these sorts of articles need to look at truedelta.com to compare features and reliability and stop making invalid price comparisons.

I've been looking for this chart, and finally found it again. It's from a study done in the UK from 2004 to 2009, tracking fuel prices and interest in BEVs, and shows a pretty direct correlation. A bit old now, but the UK did have BEVs in use at the time (REVAs in London). Anyway, see page 11: http://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/media/2009%2011%20Electric%20Shock%20Electric%20Cars.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GRA said:

I've been looking for this chart, and finally found it again. It's from a study done in the UK from 2004 to 2009, tracking fuel prices and interest in BEVs, and shows a pretty direct correlation. A bit old now, but the UK did have BEVs in use at the time (REVAs in London). Anyway, see page 11: http://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/media/2009%2011%20Electric%20Shock%20Electric%20Cars.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Click to expand...

Sure "interest" may change. But do the actual sales numbers correlate ? This is far more important than "interest" in NEVs.

Zythryn said:

Perhaps in part.
I think a bigger factor is that the ONLY reason to buy a hybrid is fuel savings.
With EVs you get a better quality, more fun drive experience.

Click to expand...

Sounds like someone who never owned nor drove a Prius. I can tell you it is a really fun driving experience. If you look at the owner survey data on PriusChat.com you will see that nearly all the early adopters (Gen I) and most Gen II purchasers did so for reasons that were not even even MOSTLY about the fuel saving. Back then (similar to gas prices today) the "payback time" was likely more years than the time they would own the car. Most did so for either environmental or technology reasons.

I bought my Prius for the exact same reason I bought the LEAF. New cool technology. In both cases, I could care less about the fuel savings.

evnow said:

GRA said:

I've been looking for this chart, and finally found it again. It's from a study done in the UK from 2004 to 2009, tracking fuel prices and interest in BEVs, and shows a pretty direct correlation. A bit old now, but the UK did have BEVs in use at the time (REVAs in London). Anyway, see page 11: http://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/media/2009%2011%20Electric%20Shock%20Electric%20Cars.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Click to expand...

Sure "interest" may change. But do the actual sales numbers correlate ? This is far more important than "interest" in NEVs.

Click to expand...

Certainly, but without 'interest' first there wouldn't (and won't) be any sales.